Icy Europe, balmy North Pole: the world upside down

Posted: February 28, 2018 by oldbrew in Natural Variation, sea ice, Temperature, weather
Tags: , ,

Temperatures at the earth’s surface on February 25 at 1200 GMT [image credit: phys.org]


The role of the lowest solar cycle for at least a century is mostly ignored by believers in man-made global warming. There are signs of climate change, but not necessarily the kind they expect.

Not for the first time in recent years, Europe has descended into a deep freeze while the Arctic experiences record high temperatures, leaving scientists to ponder the role global warming may play in turning winter weather upside down, says Phys.org.

The reversal has been dramatic.

A Siberian cold front has spread sub-zero temperatures across Europe, carpeting southern cities and palm-lined Mediterranean beaches with snow.

On Sunday, meanwhile, air temperatures at the North Pole—which won’t see the Sun until March—rose above freezing.

“In relative terms, that’s a 30 C (54 degrees Fahrenheit) temperature anomaly,” Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth in Washington, tweeted.

At the Longyearbyen weather station on the Island of Svalbard in the Arctic Ocean, temperatures were 10 C above average over the last 30 days, according to Zack Labe, a climate modeller at the University of California Irvine.

At the same time, sea ice is covering the smallest area in the dead of winter since records began more than half a century ago.

In one region, around Svalbard, the area covered by sea ice—205,727 square kilometres—on Monday was less than half the average for the period 1981-2010, the Norway Ice Service reported.

“Positive temperatures near the North Pole in winter are thought to have occurred during four winters between 1980 and 2010,” Robert Graham, a climate scientist at the Norwegian Polar Institute, told AFP.

They have now occurred in four out of the last five winters.”

This acceleration, experts said, circumstantially points to climate change, which has—over the same period—warmed the Arctic region twice as fast as the global average.

Transform the planet

Another clue may be the Arctic thaw/European deep freeze pairing.

“The surge of mild weather at the North Pole and the cold front in Europe are directly linked,” Etienne Kapikian, a scientist at Meteo France, the national weather service, told AFP.

Continued here.

Comments
  1. dennisambler says:

    But still pretty cold in Longyearbyen – minus 8C, real feel -17C and getting colder. https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/norway/longyearbyen

  2. donald penman says:

    My temperature sensor here in Lincoln UK is just under – 2 degrees centigrade at 1:30 pm and not likely to get any warmer than that, it was – 3.5 degrees centigrade at 11 am and I thought at first it was 3.5 degrees until I looked closer. we are facing our seventh night below freezing today but I realise it is colder elsewhere. I don’t think that the Arctic Sea Ice extent is as bad as is being made out they are making a mountain out of molehill and the sea ice extent has not yet reached its maximum extent probably.

  3. oldbrew says:

    A friend in southern Germany (close to the Danube river, about 120 km. north of the Alps) reports -15C and snow today.
    – – –
    (Jan 14). Piers Corbyn says: “The extreme cold and intense snow and blizzards recently and through this winter in USA, Bri+Ire, Eu & Russia/China are the new normal for winters over at least the next 20 years. The world is now cooling (using real data not fraud) and wild jet stream events (the opposite of the CO2 warmists expectations) will continue as the new norms.”

    http://weatheraction.com/

  4. Phoenix44 says:

    One place gets colder than average, another gets warmer than average. That’s how it works when you have a fixed amount of “temperature” isn’t it?

    And our weather is close to or actually chaotic, so small changes can cause all sorts of things to happen.

  5. BA2204 says:

    That pathetically-misnamed ‘arctic heat’ quickly vanishes to space. The global cooling mechanism working overtime. I have NZ friends staying in England and I fear for them….. Piers has done his best to educate folk, but the Gleicks of the world cannot learn.
    Meanwhile the meridional jetstream now dominates here in our SH summer, too. Running hot and cold, you might say. Brett

  6. JB says:

    “This much is certain—there is overwhelming evidence that changes in the Arctic will affect our weather,” said Kretschmer.

    I would never have guessed…

  7. donald penman says:

    There is a lot of lying snow where I am in Lincoln and my temperature readings are falling fast now it is down to – 3.5 degrees centigrade again at 3pm, it is likely even colder outside Lincoln.

  8. johnm33 says:

    What one chooses to believe is a movable feast but the Arctic sea ice has been losing volume for years. It’s thinner and far more vulnerable to wave/wind action, if that trend continues we’ll soon have a warm arctic, both winter and summer. When that establishes there’ll be too little difference between tropical and polar temperatures to sustain a three cell system, and a single hadley cell will run from the equator to the pole, the present system is just a taste of that. A very different weather regime almost everywhere, but especially in western europe and north eastern america. It’s a very recent phenomenon for the ice to be weak enough, at this time of year, to be moved even by such powerful winds, it was simply too thick, not now.

    [reply] ‘if’ and ‘when’ are not the same

  9. oldbrew says:

    Re SSWs warming the Arctic: not seeing anything here about man-made effects – maybe the Wiki editors haven’t got to it yet 😉

    In a usual northern-hemisphere winter, several minor warming events occur, with a major event occurring roughly every two years. One reason for major stratospheric warmings to occur in the Northern hemisphere is because orography and land-sea temperature contrasts are responsible for the generation of long (wavenumber 1 or 2) Rossby waves in the troposphere. These waves travel upward to the stratosphere and are dissipated there, decelerating the winds and warming the Arctic. This is the reason that major warmings are only observed in the northern-hemisphere, with one exception. [bold added]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming#Dynamics

  10. ren says:

    The polar vortex in the lower stratosphere begins to shift towards Siberia.

    Moving the polar vortex towards the pole is already visible in the temperature drop.

  11. ren says:

    The visible temperature jump in the stratosphere. Now the temperature is dropping.

  12. gymnosperm says:

    A tragic loss of watts as the 30C anomaly radiates the fourth power of the delta to the cold, dark sky.

  13. ren says:

    The effect of the decrease in the magnetic activity of the Sun on the increase in stratosphere temperature can be seen.

  14. ren says:

    The temperature jump in the stratosphere was rapid.

  15. ren says:

    Solar activity falls.

  16. Curious George says:

    ren, your data is two years old.

  17. ren says:

    This temperature in Europe is the result of a change in the wind direction in the polar vortex.

  18. oldbrew says:

    ‘Arctic sea ice has been losing volume for years’

    And before that it was gaining volume for years, but some people don’t want to know about that.

  19. ren says:

    The plots show maps with sea ice thickness, and seasonal cycles of the calculated total arctic sea ice volume. The mean sea ice volume and standard deviation for the period 2004-2013 are shown with gray.

  20. A C Osborn says:

    They are concentrating so much on the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere they are deliberately not looking at the cold in the Southern Hemisphere.

  21. Jmac says:

    It looks like all of that money we are spending to mitigate Global Warming is paying off.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/925187/UK-weather-forecast-latest-snow-tomorrow-will-it-snow-coldest-day

  22. ren says:

    Solar wind activity will now be very low. Jet streams will weaken.

  23. pochas94 says:

    If the arctic air heads south, it will be replaced by warmer air from somewhere else. It’s that simple.

  24. oldbrew says:

    Questions and answers surrounding the Beast from the East and Storm Emma

    Mr Snell said sudden stratospheric warming causes a weakening of the jet stream and allows cold air from western Russia to “flood” over Europe.

    http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/questions-and-answers-surrounding-the-beast-from-the-east-and-storm-emma-11364254431204

    In the graphic at the top of the post the wavy jet stream has caused a ‘finger’ of milder air to appear between the two colder (purple) zones of the Arctic.

  25. oldbrew says:

    Adapting to the conditions in Scotland…

  26. […] Icy Europe, balmy North Pole: the world upside down | Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]

  27. ren says:

    Once again this winter, heavy snowfall in the Alps.

  28. ren says:

    Europe can not count on large warming because AO falls.

  29. Richard111 says:

    Children here in the UK are learning that ‘snow’ means school is closed.

  30. oldbrew says:

    Looks like the ‘balmy North Pole’ is over…at the Alaska version.

    Real North Pole is at -25C
    http://www.yr.no/place/North_Pole/
    – – –
    Bad weather continuing in the UK…

    Storm Emma: Red warning in Wales and south-west England
    20 minutes ago

    Storm Emma is expected to bring blizzards, biting winds and significant travel disruption to southern, western and central England, parts of Wales and Northern Ireland.

    This is the third day of disruption caused by heavy snowfall.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43236763

  31. waterside4 says:

    I know this is a daft question, but …. can some one here tell me just where around the north pole is this thermometer situated, and more importantly who is reading it and at what time of day or night?
    I cannot sleep at night wondering about ‘it’
    Thanks.

  32. ren says:

    Sorry. It will still be snowing in France and England.

  33. oldbrew says:

    We could be about to run out of gas because of the Beast from the East
    Thursday 1 Mar 2018 11:54 am

    The National Grid has warned that we are running out of gas as demand grows due to the icy temperatures brought on by the Beast from the East. It issued a ‘gas deficit warning’ as fears mount that supplies could run empty amid the extreme weather conditions across Britain. Irish Met Office issues red weather warning for entire country The warning was made at 5.45am this morning, and will remain in place until 5am on Friday morning.

    It doesn’t look like household supplies will be affected, but the shortages could hit industrial users as the Grid attempts to balance supply and demand into Friday.

    Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2018/03/01/we-could-be-about-to-run-out-of-gas-because-of-the-beast-from-the-east-7352058/

  34. oldbrew says:

    Deadly blizzards lash Europe, air travel disrupted
    March 1, 2018

    The Siberian cold front—dubbed the “Beast from the East” in Britain, “Siberian bear” by the Dutch and the “snow cannon” by Swedes—on Thursday forced Geneva airport to close for several hours in the morning, with temperatures plunging in Switzerland to nearly minus 40 degrees Celsius (minus 38 Fahrenheit) at higher altitudes.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2018-03-deadly-blizzards-lash-europe-air.html
    – – –

  35. E.M.Smith says:

    To understand what is happening one need only look at a Lava Lamp.

    Heat is added at the bottom (equator) and blobs of warm float to the top (pole) where the heat is radiated off / conducted away. Cooler blobs then sink back to the warm pole.

    For us, the oceans take about 18 years for a warm band in the tropical pacific ocean to make it to the Bering Straight, so think of that water as being from 2000, i.e. a very warm year. in the mean time, the air has gone quite cold. So that arctic blob will rapidly cool.

    From here on out, we’ll have both increasingly cold air, and increasingly cold oceans, and the Arctic will do one of it’s cyclic freeze ups. Then it will start getting really cold in the UK…

  36. ren says:

    Strong blizzards in France and Belgium. Very strong snowfall in the French Alps.

  37. tom0mason says:

    People here may be interested in this …
    Sub zero UK-CET means for the last day of the meteorological winter (28th or 29th Feb)

    1783: -0.1
    1785: -3.8
    1786: -0.9
    1795: -1.0
    1796: -0.3
    1800: -0.2
    1816: -0.5
    1866: -3.2
    1875: -0.3
    1877: -1.0
    1881: -0.1
    1886: -0.3
    1904: -2.9
    1929: -1.7
    1946: -0.8
    1955: -2.3
    2018: -3.6

    Does that make Feb 28th, 2018 unprecedented?

  38. hunter says:

    The climate kooks, instead of realizing that the cold shifts around is the result basic physics have to contrive a CO2 based cause that can blamed on people, especially denialist scum.
    What ass hats.

  39. oldbrew says:

    Airports open despite ‘challenging’ weather conditions

    Glasgow Airport said its staff worked overnight to clear the runway and surrounding areas after the worst snowfall in its history.

    http://www.cumberlandnews.co.uk/news/national/article/Airports-open-despite-challenging-weather-conditions-bfd0cb88-dc82-4eaf-bd56-a7d16a7c6f2f-ds

  40. […] Icy Europe, balmy North Pole: the world upside down | Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]

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