Extreme winter weather, such as ‘Beast from the East’, can be linked to solar cycle 

Posted: March 20, 2018 by oldbrew in research, sea ice, weather
Tags: , ,

UK winter weather forecast [image credit: BBC]


So says a new study, which also has the benefit of being topical. The current weak solar cycle is highlighted.

Periods of extreme cold winter weather and perilous snowfall, similar to those that gripped the UK in a deep freeze with the arrival of the ‘Beast from the East’, could be linked to the solar cycle, pioneering new research has shown.

A new study, led by Dr Indrani Roy from the University of Exeter, has revealed when the solar cycle is in its ‘weaker’ phase, there are warm spells across the Arctic in winter, as well as heavy snowfall across the Eurasian sector, reports Phys.org.

The research is published in leading journal Scientific Reports, a Nature Publication, on Tuesday, 20 March 2018.

Dr Roy, form Exeter’s Mathematics department said: “In spite of all other influences and complexities, it is still possible to segregate a strong influence from the sun. There are reductions of sea-ice in the Arctic and a growth in the Eurasian sector is observed in recent winters. This study shows those trends are related and current weaker solar cycle is contributing to that.”

The new study observed that during periods when the winter solar Sunspot Number (SSN) falls below average, the Arctic warming extends from the lower troposphere to high up in the upper stratosphere. On the other hand there is a cooling when SSN is above average.

It explored how the 11-year solar cycle – a periodic change in the sun’s activity including changes in the levels of solar UV radiation and changes in the SSNs – can be linked with the Polar vortex and Arctic Oscillation phenomenon, which affects winter Arctic and Eurasian climate.

It subsequently can influence weather conditions in Europe, including the UK, Scandinavia and Asia.

‘Solar cyclic variability can modulate winter Arctic climate’ is published in Scientific Reports.

Source: Extreme winter weather, such as ‘Beast from the East’, can be linked to solar cycle | Phys.org
– – –
Daily Mail version here.

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    when the solar cycle is in its ‘weaker’ phase, there are warm spells across the Arctic in winter

    If true, alternative theories for such weather events look doomed :/
    – – –

  2. stpaulchuck says:

    “Sacrilege and blasphemy!!”

    OMG. If the climate is generally controlled by natural phenomena then what are all those PhD’s going to do for money?? The entire “climate” business would wind up on the rocks. (ha ha ha ha, ummmm nice thought that)

  3. Phoenix44 says:

    So this doesn’t happen when the sun is more active? Really? This is as junky as epidemiology, tiny associations on hugely noisy and incomplete data.

  4. tom0mason says:

    Ho-humm, judging by the way the GFS, and other weather models are looking after a brief warm few days, the Easter period will be cold again.
    Here’s one I looked at earlier —
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=201&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

  5. oldbrew says:

    From the study:
    The data of Arctic sea ice extent is also explored. The period of analysis is from 1979 to 2016 inclusive. With the advent of satellite data, that period is more reliable, and also it covers more than 30 years (the criteria for a climatological period). Arctic climate also suggested an abrupt variation since 1979 and hence the starting period of analyses is considered here from 1979.
    http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22854-0/

    By coincidence (?) ‘an abrupt variation since 1979’ is when Arctic sea ice started a downward trend. Before that it was on an upward trend, which is usually ignored – and not explained – due to no satellites, or lack of suitable data from them.
    – – –
    Also from the study:
    the main finding is … that the sun can modulate winter Arctic climate via the AO.

  6. ren says:

    The polar vortex in hemispheric winter season is generated by a band of upper-level winds (in the form of a jet) that circulate the pole in both hemispheres around the upper stratosphere and plays a major role in regulating the temperature of polar surfaces13. During active solar years of DJF, there is an enhanced warming in the upper stratosphere of SH, and subsequently stronger temperature contrast, which causes stronger upper stratospheric polar vortex features (NH) and stronger jet.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22854-0

  7. ren says:

    “Our result suggests the latest rapid decline of sea ice around the Arctic in the recent winter decade/season could also have contributions from the current weaker solar cycle. The last 14 years are dominated by solar Min years and have only one Max. This is unlike other previous years, where the number of Max and Min years were evenly distributed (five each). The cumulative effect from the past 13 solar Min years could have played a role in the current record decline of the last winter, 2017. The current weaker solar cycle may also have contributions on increase in winter snow cover around the Eurasian sector.”

  8. oldbrew says:

    Is Climate Change Making Winter Weather Worse? New Study Stokes the Debate

    The study offers a potential explanation for some noteworthy U.S. winter episodes in the past decade amid global warming.

    But several climate experts are not yet convinced that changes in the Arctic are leading to an increase in extreme U.S. winter weather

    http://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-03-21-climate-change-winter-weather

    ‘several climate experts’ = the usual suspects? [see link]

  9. oldbrew says:

    Paris Shivers In Coldest Consecutive Late March Days Since 1888

    Following the biggest snowfall since 2010 and second biggest since 1989 in February, Paris, France observed another 4cm but also observed its coldest maximum for late March since 1975 with a high of only 1.7C.

    The day before it only reached 1.8C which according to Etienne Kapikian (@EKMeteo) is the first back to back days to fail to reach 2C for the 2nd half of March since 1888.

    http://www.markvoganweather.com/2018/03/20/paris-shivers-in-coldest-late-march-days-since-1888/
    – – –
    Chennai’s highest temperature was recorded in 2003, contrary to predictions by climate alarmists.

    The city’s previous highest temperature was recorded way back in 1910, thus proving that increased carbon emissions from the industrial activity didn’t have any significant impact on temperature levels, and warmer temperatures prevailed even before industrialization began in post-independence India.

    Mean winter temperatures for the whole of India showed no significant increase not only over the past ten to twenty years but over the entire period from 1901 to 2016, except that the very strong El Niño pushed 2016’s temperatures higher.

    http://www.masterresource.org/india-international/chennai-energy-vs-climate/

  10. ren says:

    The evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex plays an important part in the mechanism of solar-climatic links.The detected long-term oscillations of correlations between troposphere pressure at middle and high latitudes and SA/GCR characteristics seem to be closely related to the changes of the polar vortex strength. The vortex strength reveals a roughly 60-year periodicity influencing the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the sign of SA/GCR effects on troposphere pressure. When the vortex is strong, meridional processes intensify and an increase of GCR fluxes results in an enhancement of cyclonic activity at middle latitudes and anticyclone formation at polar latitudes. When the vortex is weak, meridional processes weaken and GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes change the sign. A possible reason for the sign reversals may be different troposphere-stratosphere coupling during the periods of a strong and weak vortex.
    http://slideplayer.com/slide/3993955/

  11. ren says:

    It should also be noted that the SA/GCR effects in the regions of the polar vortex and the North
    Atlantic PFZ usually have opposite phases, i.e., an intensification of a high pressure area in the region of the
    polar vortex formation is accompanied by a decrease of pressure in the region of the Polar frontal zone in the
    North Atlantic that implies an intensification of cyclonic activity, and vice versa. This suggests that the
    processes developing in these regions as a response to solar activity variations are closely interconnected.
    Thus, the spatial distribution of the pressure variations associated with solar activity and cosmic rays
    seems to be determined by their influence on the main elements of the large-scale circulation of the
    atmosphere, i.e., the polar vortex and the planetary frontal zone (extratropical cyclogenesis area). Let us
    stress an importance of processes developing in the polar vortex area where the ~60 yr periodicity was found
    to be the most distinctly seen. This is also a region of precipitation of low-energy component of GCR
    strongly modulated by solar activity. The GCR variations in the 11 yr solar cycle are most pronounced at the
    heights ~15-25 km [Bazilevskaya et al., 2008], i.e., at the heights of the vortex formation. An intensification
    of the polar vortex due to SA/GCR variations may result in a decrease of heat exchange between low and
    high latitudes and, then, to an increase of temperature gradients in the planetary frontal zone and an
    intensification of extratropical cyclogenesis. Hence, one can suggest that the SA/GCR effects on the
    evolution of the polar vortex play an important part in the physical mechanism of solar-atmospheric links.
    http://geo.phys.spbu.ru/materials_of_a_conference_2010/STP2010/Veretenenko_Ogurtsov_2010.pdf

  12. ren says:

    Abstract

    In this study we show that correspondence of the main structures of geomagnetic field, near surface air temperature and surface pressure in the mid-latitudes, reported previously in the 1st part of the paper, has its physical foundation. The similar pattern, found in latitude-longitude distribution of the lower stratospheric ozone and specific humidity, allows us to close the chain of causal links, and to offer a mechanism through which geomagnetic field could influence on the Earth’s climate. It starts with a geomagnetic modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and ozone production in the lower stratosphere through ion-molecular reactions initiated by GCR. The alteration of the near tropopause temperature (by O3 variations at these levels) changes the amount of water vapour in the driest part of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), influencing in such a way on the radiation balance of the planet. This forcing on the climatic parameters is non-uniformly distributed over the globe, due to the heterogeneous geomagnetic field controlling energetic particles entering the Earth’s atmosphere.
    http://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/111146

  13. oldbrew says:

    Spain and Germany are blanketed with snow and ice as the spring gets off to a freezing start across Europe

    Seven Spanish regions issued with snow warnings on Tuesday including islands of Majorca and Menorca
    Meanwhile snow fell across much of Germany as winter refused to make way on the first official day of spring
    In Croatia melting ice has caused widespread flooding around Zagreb, while snow was still falling elsewhere
    Hundreds of people have been stranded and thousands of hectares flooded by melting snow in Albania

    By Chris Pleasance for MailOnline
    PUBLISHED: 19:25, 20 March 2018 | UPDATED: 10:26, 21 March 2018

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5523539/Spain-Germany-blanketed-snow-day-spring.html

  14. oldbrew says:

  15. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    It’s the Sun what did it.

  16. ren says:

    It is still snowing in the northeast of the US.

    Still frost and snowfall in France, Spain, Germany.

  17. ren says:

    Very high level of galactic radiation and increases.

  18. oldbrew says:

    Added ENSO data to the Oulu long-term data (excluding weak El Niños).
    Preference for peaks over troughs?

    http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

    Oceanic Niño Index: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png

  19. Have been saying much the same for over ten years.

  20. ren says:

    A large increase in the magnetic activity of the Sun in 2015 (latitudinal circulation) made it possible to release energy accumulated in the oceans (El Niño). However, the atmosphere does not accumulate heat, as evidenced by the large amount of snow in the northern hemisphere.
    https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-planetary-a-index.gif?time=1520212803000
    The Nino1,2 index shows that El Niño could have developed earlier. This index fluctuates the most.


    Meridional circulation disturbs the constant winds flowing along the equator.

  21. ren says:

    When will it be warmer?

  22. oldbrew says:

    Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?
    M Lockwood 1,2, R G Harrison 1, T Woollings 1 and S K Solanki 3,4

    Published 14 April 2010

    http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001/meta
    – – –
    Low solar activity is blamed for winter chill over Europe
    Rasmus E Benestad

    2010 IOP Publishing Ltd
    Environmental Research Letters, Volume 5, Number 2

    Throughout recent centuries, there have been a large number of studies of the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of climate, and yet this question is still not entirely settled. In a recent study, Lockwood et al (2010) argue that the occurrence of persistent wintertime blocking events (periods with persistent high sea level pressure over a certain region) over the eastern Atlantic, and hence chilly winters over northern Europe, are linked to low solar activity. Is this then a breakthrough in our understanding of our climate?

    http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/021001

  23. Sparks says:

    There was no decline in arctic sea ice, it is still a planetary polar region that has the ability to form sea ice, what this particular bull shitter is distorting, is the fact, sudden stratospheric warming is energy leaving the planet.

  24. oldbrew says:

  25. oldbrew says:

    Cold blast…’Piers Corbyn warns there are more cold blasts for UK Eire and Europe & Usa in WeatherAction LongRange forecasts for the rest of Spring.’

    And a blast for warmists…

  26. oldbrew says:

    UK weather: ‘Beast from the East III’ to bring snow over Easter weekend
    Mar 23, 2018

    A third cold snap in a month could see major disruptions over the bank holiday

    “In a similar vein to a few weeks ago with high pressure building, the winds start to come in from the east and that means cold air. It’s still very cold at this time of year across Siberia and that colder air is just sweeping in.”

    http://www.theweek.co.uk/91900/uk-weather-travel-chaos

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