Further confirmation Southern Ocean sea ice is expanding

Posted: March 24, 2018 by oldbrew in climate, modelling, research, sea ice
Tags: ,

Antarctic sea ice is still expanding [image credit: BBC]


The conclusion offered here is that ‘something must be fundamentally wrong with the climate models, for their predictions to be so far off from the observed sea ice trends’. No wonder climate alarmists focus on the Arctic.

Over the past several years, many researchers have examined the spatial extent of sea ice around Antarctica, says CO2 Science, consistently reporting an increasing trend (see, for example, our reviews on the previously published works of Yuan and Martinson, 2000, Watkins and Simmonds, 2000, Hanna, 2001, Zwally et al., 2002, Vyas et al., 2003, Cavalieri et al., 2003, Liu et al., 2004, Parkinson, 2004, Comiso and Nishio, 2008, Cavalieri and Parkinson, 2008, Turner et al., 2009, Pezza et al., 2012, Reid et al., 2013, Reid et al., 2015, Simmonds, 2015, He et al., 2016 and Comiso et al., 2017).

The latest study to confirm this ongoing expanse comes from the South American research team of De Santis et al. (2017).

Using a sea ice index from the National Snow and Ice data Center (Fetterer et al., 2002), derived from passive microwave satellite data, the three scientists assessed trends in monthly sea ice extent for the Southern Ocean and five sub-regions over the period 1979 to 2016.

Then, they compared their findings with those of other researchers, who calculated trends using similar data and methods, but over shorter time periods.

Results of the analysis are presented in the table below, where it is seen that the positive trend (i.e., expansion) in sea ice extent across the whole of the Southern Ocean has been increasing with time — from approximately 1% per decade using data over the period 1979-2006 to 1.5 and 1.6 % per decade using data over the periods 1979-2010 and 1979-2016, respectively.

Regionally, four of the five Southern Ocean regions show positive sea ice trends. The only negative trend witnessed is in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas, where trends have become less negative in recent years due to advancements in sea ice extent occurring there.

Table 1. Trends in sea ice extent for the Southern Ocean and five regions of the Southern Ocean for the period 1979-2016 (this study) and for shorter periods (other studies, as listed below). Source: De Santis et al. (2017).

Continued here.

Comments
  1. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    Be interesting to see if the see-saw of ice between the hemispheres continues in the years ahead.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    @Craigm350:

    The polar see-saw is well know and persistent. There’s even a (small) wiki on it:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_see-saw

    Sometimes is called the bipolar see-saw (emotional problems? 😉
    http://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/research/climatechange/modelling_dynamics/bipolar_seesaw/

    IMHO it’s due to Lunar Tidal effects. The moon is sometimes more northerly and sometimes more southerly, causing relative tidal mixing shifts and bringing more or less cold water to the surface.
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/15/d-o-ride-my-see-saw-mr-bond/

    With mechanism explained here:
    http://www.pnas.org/content/97/8/3814.full

    [reply] and here: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/04/28/the-bi-polar-seesaw-whats-happening/

  3. ivan says:

    We have always known that the climate models are wrong. Now it is shown that how they were calculated could well have been wrong as well because the computers have problems.

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/03/21/nvidia_titan_v_reproducibility/

    Non of that excuses the way the climatologists refuse to apply real data comparison to their models but blindly continue with the hype presumably in the hope of continuing grants and income.

  4. stewgreen says:

    BBC this morning
    “Arctic Ice is at the second lowest ever
    Rah, rah, rah”
    I hit the off button of course, cos they’re reporting always consists of cherrypicking and then building a narrative.
    We here know to think about whether there has an increase in the Southern hemisphere ice.
    And it’s not so long back they suddenly found another 5 million penguins.

  5. oldbrew says:

    The Bellingshausen-Amundsen seas (see Table 1 above) are west of Antarctica, where the undersea volcanic activity is found.

    “There’s a pattern of hotspots,” Schroeder said. “One of them is next to Mount Takahe, which is a volcano that actually sticks out of the ice sheet.”

    http://www.livescience.com/46194-volcanoes-melt-antarctic-glaciers.html

    Mount Takahe is a large, snow-covered shield volcano standing 64 km SE of Toney Mountain in Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica. It is roughly circular, about 29 km across, and has a caldera up to 8 km wide. At 780 cubic km, it is a massive volcano. The volcano may have last erupted during the Holocene, and thus it is probably a potentially active volcano.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Takahe

  6. oldbrew says:

    August 2017: Scientists discover 91 volcanoes below Antarctic ice sheet

    Scientists have uncovered the largest volcanic region on Earth – two kilometres below the surface of the vast ice sheet that covers west Antarctica.

    The project, by Edinburgh University researchers, has revealed almost 100 volcanoes – with the highest as tall as the Eiger, which stands at almost 4,000 metres in Switzerland.

    Geologists say this huge region is likely to dwarf that of east Africa’s volcanic ridge, currently rated the densest concentration of volcanoes in the world.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/12/scientists-discover-91-volcanos-antarctica

  7. ren says:

    This year, the effect of El Niño stops working in Antarctica.

  8. Gamecock says:

    “The project, by Edinburgh University researchers, has revealed almost 100 volcanoes – with the highest as tall as the Eiger, which stands at almost 4,000 metres in Switzerland.”

    But it’s my car that controls MSL.

  9. oldbrew says:

    NASA plans to enhance view on Earth’s frozen regions
    Source: Xinhua 2018-03-28

    LOS ANGELES, March 27 (Xinhua) — The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will enhance the view of Earth’s frozen regions with two new satellite missions and an array of field research in 2018, the U.S. space agency said Tuesday in a report.

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/28/c_137071464.htm