State of the Climate 2017

Posted: March 29, 2018 by oldbrew in climate, Critique

From the GWPF’s own preamble to the Humlum report, quoting the professor:
“It is clear that temperatures in the troposphere are continuing to diverge from surface temperatures. In other words, they are warming more slowly than global warming theory says they should. The contrast with theory is even more marked in the stratosphere, where temperatures have barely changed for 23 years. We still have much to learn about the climate.”


By Paul Homewood


The GWPF has published its State of the Climate 2017 Report, written by Ole Humlum, former Professor of Physical Geography at the University Centre in Svalbard, Norway, and Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Oslo, Norway.

Here are the main points:



Lower troposphere temperatures show the persistence of the pause:

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  1. oldbrew says:

    The Galileo Movement says:
    We are keen to see all sides of the man-made climate change debate aired, allowing people to make up their own minds.

    The Galileo Movement Daily

    Mainly American web site.
    – – –
    A British view from James Delingpole…

    Climate change is going to kill at least 150 million people and there’s nothing we can do to stop it.
    Well, at least it is if you believe climate doomster David Wallace-Wells in the latest issue of New York magazine. Things are bad. Really bad. We didn’t listen and now we can expect to pay a terrible price — starting with all those deaths:

    ‘Numbers that large can be hard to grasp, but 150 million is the equivalent of 25 Holocausts. It is five times the size of the death toll of the Great Leap Forward — the largest non-military death toll humanity has ever produced. It is three times the greatest death toll of any kind: World War II.’
    . . .
    You really don’t need a PhD in bullshit to realize that this is weapons-grade, copper-bottomed drivel. Like pretty much every paper ever published by the climate alarmism industry, all the scary predictions are merely projections based on modeled scenarios dependent on so many dubious assumptions that their conclusions are objectively worthless.

  2. gymnosperm says:

    To whatever extent one can trust the “energy balanced and filled” CERES data, clouds (not CO2) are warming the atmosphere.

    The units represent the negative (reduction of) radiation to space according to CERES. The net cloud radiative effect is inversely correlated with the “all sky” TOA net of incoming and outgoing radiation, and explains most of the trend.

    The other part is that under clear sky (no cloud) conditions, both Longwave earth spectrum and the net of incoming and outgoing TOA radiation are flat or slightly INCREASING, in contrast to the prediction of the MODTRAN radiative transfer model. Here the units are positive.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Gymonosperm – re: clouds (not CO2) are warming the atmosphere.
    – – –
    MetO: ‘What are clouds and how do they form?’

    Clouds are usually produced through condensation
    – – –
    Warmth -> water vapour -> clouds and/or clouds -> warmth?

  4. ren says:

    When the temperature of the surface of the ocean drops, especially in the area of sea currents, the population of algae, in particular diatoms, increases rapidly. Thus, the absorption of CO2 by algae increases.

  5. ren says:

    If the air circulation is latitudinal in the tropics (La Nina), then the temperature in winter in medium latitudes can not rise above the norm.
    “Where The Warmth Is”?

  6. ren says:

    The low surface temperature of the oceans in the tropics will cause cooling.

    Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

  7. ren says:

    The real problem is when La Nina meets with low Sun activity.
    For the first time in more than 20 years, the family had to cancel the trip to the cabin this easter at Sarnes in Nordkapp, Northern-Norway after receiving this photo from the neighbor.

  8. tallbloke says:

    Late snow is a sign of things to come. Shortened growing season means higher food prices in higher latitudes.

  9. ren says:

    “However it makes a huge difference, whether radiation is (re-)emitted, or simply reflected. Also clouds in this image truly behave
    schizophrenic, as they are reflecting solar radiation as clouds do, but then turn into a GHG which emit back radiation, along with
    other GHGs. That schizophrenia however is not originating in the clouds.”
    The cloudiness is essentially described by only five parameters, which are CLR, FEW, SCT, BKN and OVC (which translate into clear (sky), few clouds, scattered clouds, broken sky and overcast).
    “Another interesting detail is that the intersection of the CLR and OVC lines happens at much lower temperatures in spring (or later winter) as in autumn. This makes perfect sense, since temperatures will be lagging behind solar intensity by about one month.
    In spring we have relatively strong solar radiation, but low surface temperatures. Clouds will accordingly reflect relatively more sun light than terrestrial infrared. Accordingly OVC will underperform CLR. In autumn it is exactly the opposite way. It is a phenomenon
    that should exist in theory, but it is nice to see it confirmed empirically. Also this may be a modest indication, that this analysis is not totally unreasonable.”

  10. ren says:

    “The cloudiness is essentially described by only five parameters, which are CLR, FEW, SCT, BKN and OVC (which translate into
    clear (sky), few clouds, scattered clouds, broken sky and overcast).
    …one only including stations within 25 latitude south and north. This is really a tiny sample, including just 26 stations
    (there was a total of 67 stations, but only those 26 were also reporting cloud conditions). These would be located in Key West and
    Hawaii, next to some military bases like Guam, Diego Garcia and so on..
    In this last sample, which is to be taken with some caution, OVC is finally warmer than CLR. Indeed it is a trend we can see, as we
    restrict the sample ever more to tropic and warmer regions. The curve rather tilts to the left, than the right, which comes as a surprise.
    Even though the quantity and thus the quality of the data base is diminishing, there is one definite conclusion. There is not the
    slightest indication, that clouds would have more of a cooling effect close to the equator. Rather the data suggest the opposite.”
    Condition Temp. C
    CLR 24.79
    FEW 25.51
    SCT 25.93
    BKN 25.97
    OVC 24.96

  11. stpaulchuck says:

    “It is likely that 2017 was one of the warmest years…”

    right off the bat you know it’s just another propaganda paper no matter what the rest of it says. The radio sonde and balloon and satellite data do not agree with this. Unless of course you apply the same universal variable constant to those measurements as they do to the ground measurements. Oh yeah, and add in 40% made up numbers, so-called “estimated” aka fictional.

  12. oldbrew says:

    MAR 31, 2018 @ 10:46 PM
    April Will Begin With More Chances For Snow In The Northern U.S. This Week

    Why are we still seeing chances of snow in April? The jet stream is sagging farther south than normal, stretching across the center of the country far away from the Canadian border. This location allows troughs to move across the country, each bringing the chance for disturbed weather. The jet stream’s location will also allow cold air to continue filtering south out of Canada, keeping the cold air necessary for snow in place for an extended period of time.

    It may seem unusual to see snow this late in the season, but April snow is perfectly normal for the northern half of the country. The average last date for measurable snowfall in cities like Minneapolis and Milwaukee is around the middle of April, and weather records back to the late 1800s show a few instances of accumulating snow as late as the middle of May in Minneapolis.

    ‘April snow is perfectly normal for the northern half of the country.’
    So nothing to do with varying trace gases in the atmosphere.

  13. ren says:

    “The pressure data show a very significant daily variation of pressure, following a fairly consistent cycle from Sol-to-Sol. The minimum is near 685 pascals and the maximum near 780 pascals. The majority of the variation is due to large scale waves in the atmosphere called tides. These tides are different from tides in the Earth’s ocean because they are forced by heating due to the sun rather than the gravitational pull of the Moon. The tides are sensitive to the distribution of cloud and dust in the atmosphere, and also the large scale pattern of winds rather like the jet streams on Earth,” says Javier Gmez-Elvira, the Principal Investigator of the REMS Instrument.”

    Read more at:

  14. ren says:

    So the pressure on Mars is like in the Earth’s stratosphere (about 7 hPa). As in the Earth’s stratosphere, there are jet streams associated with solar activity.