Wilson & Sidorenkov: A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Time Scales

Posted: March 31, 2018 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, moon, solar system dynamics, Temperature

Ian Robert George Wilson and Nikolay S Sidorenkov

Wilson and Sidorenkov, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:1, p. 446



Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm ) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.


Discussion and Conclusions:

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find all the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly at, or away, from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of the cardinal points of its seasonal calendar (i.e., the summer solstice, winter solstices, spring equinox or autumnal equinox). All of the close lunar alignments are identified over a 536-year period between January 1st 1993 A.D. 00:00 hrs UT and December 31st 2528 A.D 00:00 hrs UT.

When a plot is made of the precision of these alignments, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, the most precise alignments take place in an orderly pattern that repeats itself once every 208.0 years:

0 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 28.75 years ≈ 25.5 FMC’s
1 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 88.5 years ≈ 78.5 FMC’s
2 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 148.25 years ≈ 131.5 FMC’s
3 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 208.0 years ≈ 184.5 FMC’s

A simple extension of this pattern gives additional precise alignments at periods of: 236.75, 296.50, 356.25, 416.0, 444.75 and 504.5 years. The full significance of the 208-year repetition pattern in the periodicities of lunar alignment index (ϕ) only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series.

The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm ) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for a 2,264-year period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. Tm is believed to be a proxy for how warm it gets during the daytime in any given year i.e., it is an indicator of annual mean maximum daytime temperature. Tm is derived from the tree ring widths of Bristlecone Pines (P. aristata) located near the upper tree-line of the San Francisco Peaks (= 3,536 m).

The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) for the last 9400 years. ϕm is a proxy for the ability of the Sun’s magnetic field to deflect cosmic rays, and as such, it is a good indicator of the overall level of solar activity. It is derived from production rates of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 14C. When a comparison is made between these three spectra it shows that, of the nine most prominent periods seen in the lunar alignment index, eight have closely matching peaks in the spectrum of solar modulation potential (ϕm), and seven have closely matching peaks in the spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm). The fact that the so many of the most prominent peaks that are seen in the lunar alignment index spectrum closely match those seen in the spectra of ϕm and Tm, strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are closely related to one another.

The critical piece of observational evidence that explains why Tm might be related to ϕm is provided [32]. These authors find that there is a good correlation between the de-trended GCR flux and the semiannual component of the Earth’s LOD. Our analysis confirms the correlation found [32] and shows that the correlation is causal, with the changes in the GCR flux preceding those seen in the semi-annual component of the Earth’s LOD by roughly one year.

This result leads us to develop a heuristic luni-solar model in order to explain the connection between Tm and ϕm. Firstly, the model proposes that there must be some as yet unknown factor associated with the level of solar activity on the Sun (e.g. possibly the overall level GCR hitting the Earth) that is producing long-term systematic changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover. Secondly, it proposes that the resulting changes in regional cloud cover lead to variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles which, in turn, result in changes to the peak strength of the zonal tropical winds. Thirdly, the model proposes that it is the long-term changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover, combined with the variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles that lead to the long-term changes in the poleward energy and momentum flux. And finally, it proposes that it is this flux which governs the rate at which the Earth warms and cools, and hence, determines the long-term changes in the world mean temperature.

The close matches between the periods of the prominent peaks that are seen in spectra of ϕ Figure 4a and Tm Figure 4c, indicate that a factor associated with the times at which the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly towards or directly away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is at one of its Solstices or Equinoxes, has an influence on the Earth’s mean temperature [N.B. these alignments take place in frame of reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit].

The proposed Luni-Solar Model suggests one possible mechanism that might explain the influence of ϕ upon Tm. This model proposes that the periodicities associated with the long-term alignments between the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly towards or directly away from the Sun (i.e., half multiples of the FMC) and the seasons (i.e., the Solstices and Equinoxes – which, by definition, are synchronized with annual and semi-annual variations in LOD), produce comparable periodicities in the zonal wind speeds of the Earth’s atmosphere. These wind speed changes, in turn, produce longterm periodicities in the Earth’s mean temperature through their influence upon the efficiency with which the Earth warms and cools.

Finally, if we accept the hypothesis that planetary gravitational and tidal forces could influence the overall level of the Sun’s magnetic activity, then the observed synchronicity between ϕ and ϕm could be explained if these same planetary forces played a role in shaping the present-day orbit of the Moon.

This is a repost from Ian Wilson’s blog at http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.co.uk/

  1. tallbloke says:

    Congratulations to Ian Wilson and Nicolay Sidorenkov on the publication of this important paper. The tight synchronicities certainly indicate a planetary-Luni-Solar linkage.

    ” if we accept the hypothesis that planetary gravitational and tidal forces could influence the overall level of the Sun’s magnetic activity, then the observed synchronicity between ϕ and ϕm could be explained if these same planetary forces played a role in shaping the present-day orbit of the Moon.”

    It’s surely worth revisiting Oldbrew’s 2015 post on Jupiter-Saturn-Earth timings in relation to the De Vries cycle to help inform this aspect of the discussion:


  2. p.g.sharrow says:

    The movements of the stars in the sky causes changes in weather and climate…..

    Huh……………………………. maybe there is something to Astrology and the Farmers Almanac.

    Human observation over thousands of years must have some basis in fact.

    Even the Book of Genesis carries some truth in it…pg

  3. Chaeremon says:

    This paper by Wilson and Sidorenkov represents an excellent work on atmospheric and oceanic tides, caused by sun and moon since the time of immemoria.
    Those who prevent to control ‘climate’ statistics, by e.g. teaching herbivores (and other, man-made engines) not to fart, they achieve nothing but industrially caused energy poverty and industrially caused famines.
    It is high time to dismember self-aggrandised UN and EU, to overturn their warfare through displacement, migration and hatred. Make the good policy of the Donald prevail.

  4. Ian Wilson says:

    Thank you Tallbloke and oldbrew for highlighting our paper. The linkage between planetary motions and solar activity has long been nurtured and developed by those here at Tallbloke’s Workshop. Both of you have played a critical role in developing these ideas and your important contributions need to be acknowledged at this time.

    This paper by Nikolay Sidorenkov and myself further extends this important work to show that there is also a linkage between planetary motions and shape and wobble (i.e. the precessions – LAC and LNC) of the lunar orbit. It is the first of a series of three papers that will show that much of the variation in the world mean temperatures on decadal to centennial time scales is being driven by the Moon’s influence upon the El Nino/La Nina (i.e. ENSO) cycle.

    In addition, it is important to note the (~ 88 year) Gleissberg and (208 Year) de Vries cycles are not just a recent phenomenon but there is evidence that they have been around for at least 94 million years. Readers might also be interested in the October 2014 conference paper by James Eldrett et al.:



    ELDRETT, James, MA, Chao, MINISINI, Daniel, LUTZ, Brendan, OZKAN, Aysen3 and BERGMAN, Steven C.,

    The Cenomanian-Turonian Eagle Ford Fm consists of a succession of calcite-rich mudstones (marls and limestones) and over 300 volcanic bentonite layers. Astronomical analyses on >150 m intervals have demonstrated that the limestone and marl cycles reflect climatic forcing driven by solar insolation resulting from integrated Milankovitch periodicities. In particular, periodic solar-terrestrial orbital variations including obliquity (37-50ka) and precessional (19-23ka) forcing on summer insolation and its impact on seasonality may have been responsible for the observed lithologic and environmental variations. Furthermore, preliminary analyses of three 0.3-0.5 m thick precession cycles (limestone-marl couplets) have identified periodicities in similar range to the DeVries (200 years) and Gleissberg (83 years) solar cycles, with 99% F-test significance and passing red noise test. These millimeter-scale laminations therefore may reflect century-scale depositional processes.
    The exact nature of these century-scale variations in solar forcing on individual lamina is uncertain. To better understand the depositional effects of solar and possible volcanic forcing on these sediments, numerous high resolution analyses on a “continuous” 35 cm long thin section from the same precession cycle as the astronomic analyses have been undertaken. These analyses include millimeter-scale sedimentologic descriptions, micropalaeontologic assemblage reconstructions for individual lamina, combined with high resolution (250µm) X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) and total organic carbon (TOC) measurements. This research may contribute to a better understand of the role and impact of natural climate forcing mechanisms in greenhouse paleoclimates, and improve confidence in present-day simulations and future projections of solar and volcanic influence on century-scale change in the anthropogenically-driven climate of future centuries.

  5. Ian Wilson says:

    Please be aware that they are more than 50 typos and mistakes in the pdf file that is posted at the Journal of Earth Science and Climate Change website. I am trying to get these misprints fixed but it is like pulling teeth from a Hippo. In addition, the paper’s appendix has been left out because of the editorial policies of this Journal.

  6. tallbloke says:

    Ian, thank you for the acknowledgement. From our perspective we are immensely gratified that the fruits of our amateur investigations have been further developed and published by qualified scientists such as yourself. Your excellent contributions have turned the talkshop into a workshop which produces the goods.

    I also love the way you’ve shoved a bristlecone pine frond up Michael Mann’s backside with this study. 🙂

    Feel free to send me the appendix for publication here. Omics are notorious for always moving forwards and never getting around to revisiting the past…

  7. Bitter@twisted says:

    This is another example to demonstrate that the science is not “settled”.
    Thanks Tallbloke.

  8. Bitter@twisted says:

    And Ian.

  9. pochas94 says:

    Why would the earth’s moon have any effect on solar activity? This work supports the idea that the planetary system is evolving into a state of resonance that is causing apparently unrelated phenomena to synchronize. My simplified engineer’s take is that we are seeing maximal entropy production at work.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Synchronisation via resonance is actually a negentropic factor, because it prevents the solar system flying apart and its planets suffering cold deaths.

    You’ve misunderstood Ian’s paper. He’s not saying the moon affects solar activity, he’s saying the cyclicities of the lunar orbit and the cyclicities of solar variation are synchronised because underlying both are the cyclicities of the planets.

  11. pochas94 says:

    You misunderstood my comment.

  12. tallbloke says:

    It happens. Feel free to expand on it so I can understand the points you are trying to make.

  13. Ian Wilson says:

    If I understand you correctly, pochas94, you are in fact agreeing with our conclusions. You appear to agree that the long-term maximal entropy state for the planets is current near-resonance that is observed. You also appear to agree with our contention that both the lunar resonances and the long- term cycles in the level of solar activity are a response to those resonances.

    What our work implies is that the solar activity variations and/or the lunar tidal variations must play a role in determining the variations in the long-term World mean temperature, as well.

  14. pochas94 says:


    See Ian Wilson above. Please note that tidal friction generates entropy and yes, that causes orbits to recede, as for example the moon receding from the earth. This will not cause the solar system to fly apart, because the more the orbits recede, the less tidal forces and the less tidal friction.

  15. oldbrew says:

    Date: 29/03/18 Scientific American

    When the solar cycle is at low ebb, he says, there is a reduction in its outgoing “winds” of charged particles—which act as a shield to deflect incoming cosmic rays. This reduction allows more cosmic rays to enter our solar system, and our star itself. So an uptick in cosmic rays should lead to an uptick in gamma rays….

    So as the sun meanders back toward solar minimum, astronomers are gearing up to study its gamma rays with the hope they might shed light on its mysterious interior. Although Linden and his colleagues cannot yet explain exactly why or how gamma-ray emission shifts in step with the sun’s magnetic field, it is increasingly clear the two are somehow linked. Moskalenko argues gamma-ray emissions could be used to trace the sun’s deep magnetic fields—and potentially to at last solve the lingering mysteries of the solar cycle.


    Another finding:
    the sun’s total gamma-ray emission is most intense along its equator at solar minimum and at its poles during maximum.

  16. tallbloke says:

    Worth noting that Charles D Keeling (of Mauna Loa Co2 measurement fame) and Timothy Whorf were also proposing a lunar tidal theory of Centennial and Millennial climate change back in 2000. They homed in on the Jose cycle rather than the De Vries as the Centennial period. I think Ian is getting us further forward with his work though.



    Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing. A cause for such greater regularity in tidal forcing might be resonances of other bodies of the solar system, especially the outer planets. We are struck by the close correspondence of the average period of the 180-year tidal cycle of 179.5 years (1/10 of that of the 1,800-year cycle) and the period of the sun’s rotation about the center of mass of the solar system of 179.2 years, the latter a manifestation of planetary resonances.

  17. tallbloke says:

    Pochas: Ok, I must have taken you too literally when you asked “Why would the earth’s moon have any effect on solar activity?”

    But I have to respond to this: “Please note that tidal friction generates entropy and yes, that causes orbits to recede, as for example the moon receding from the earth. This will not cause the solar system to fly apart, because the more the orbits recede, the less tidal forces and the less tidal friction.”

    The forces involved in tidal friction are tiny compared to those involved in planetary resonance. I think the recession of the Moon from the Earth will turn out to be a part of a cyclic back and forth forced by Venus and Jupiter (which, within an order of magnitude have the same gravitational pull on the Earth-Moon system), which totally overwhelms any recession forced by tidal interaction.

    Some astrophysicists think that the outer planets may have been re-ordered in the deep past by strong resonances such as the 2:1 orbital resonance. Those are the kind of forces that would cause a planetary system to fly apart, if there wasn’t a re-synchronising effect occurring.

  18. oldbrew says:

    You can see where some things have been forced to ‘fly apart’ (due to Jupiter effects) here.

    Caption: This histogram clearly shows the primary Kirkwood gaps in the asteroid main-belt. These gaps (labeled “3:1”, “5:2”, “7:3”, “2:1”) are caused by mean-motion resonances between an asteroid and Jupiter. For example, the 3:1 Kirkwood gap is located where the ratio of an asteroid’s orbital period to that of Jupiter is 3/1 (the asteroid completes 3 orbits for every 1 orbit of Jupiter). The effect of these mean-motion resonances is a change in the asteroid’s orbital elements (particularly semimajor axis) sufficient to create these gaps in semimajor axis space. Blue = inner main-belt (a < 2.5 AU) , orange = middle main-belt (2.5 AU – 2.82 AU), green = outer main-belt (a > 2.82 AU)

    – – –
    Another view…

  19. Ian Wilson says:

    There is a direct connection between the orbits of the Earth and Moon and the length of the solar sunspot cycle. I think it was Paul Vaughan who first quoted the following relationship.

    TM = Tropical Month = the time between successive crossings of the Earth’s Equator by the Moon.
    = 27.321582 days

    1/2 Tropical Year = 1/2 TY = 182.6210949 days

    Now, the nearest multiple of the Tropical Month to 1/2 Tropical Year is

    7 x TM = 7TM = 191.251074 days

    If you form the beat period between 7TM and 1/2 Tropical year you get:

    __1___ — __1__ = __1__
    (1/2 TY)___(7TM)___SSM


    SSM = 4047.110674 days = 11.081 tropical years

    This < 0.1 % away from 11.07 +/- 0.05 years
    SSM = the mean time between solar sunspot minima over the last 410 years

    Now, on average, Jupiter moves 13.0 degrees with respect to the periodic tidal bulges that are produced on the Sun's surface by the alignments of Venus and the Earth once every (1.5993 / 2) = 0,79965 (sidereal) years. This means that it takes 11.07 sidereal years for Jupiter to move through 90 degrees with respect to these tidal bulges. It the basic time associated with the tidal-torquing Venus-Earth-Jupiter model that I believe drives the solar sunspot cycle.

    Interestingly, on April 23rd 2012 I predicted on my blog that:


    If the first (or leading) minimum for SC 25 occurs between 2019.24 and 2022.94 (i.e. ~ 2021 +/- 2 years) it will indicate a re-synchronization of the solar sunspot minima to the VEJ cycle length of 11.07 +/- 0.05 years over the 410 year period from 1611 to 2021

  20. tallbloke says:

    In my opinion, we’re entering a solar grand minimum, when the Sun may exhibit some pretty erratic behaviour, and all bets for precise solar cycle timings are off for the next 30 years.

    We’ll keep and eye on Ian’s prediction though.

    My take is that the current lull in solar activity (lots of spotless days so far this year), maybe followed by a weak resurgence which may well end within Ian’s predicted timeframe. A decade from now, we may see that weak resurgence as being somewhat similar to the ‘lost cycle’ that occured on the end of SC4 as the Sun entered the Dalton minimum.

    Time will tell.

  21. Ian Wilson says:


    What I mentioned above about the timing of the solar cycle spans a period of time that covers the onset and termination of the Dalton and Maunder minimums. What appears to happen is a temporary loss of synchronization between the 11.07-year cycle and the timing of solar minimum that occurs sometime before the onset or start of the decrease in solar activity. The loss of synchronization only last for one (or possibly two) solar minimums.

  22. tallbloke says:

    Hi Ian,
    Yes, that’s evident in the VEJ study I did as well. Ignore the red line after 2010 in this plot, that was Ian Martin’s projection. The black line is VEJ adjusted for solar wind speed and my estimate of their electromagnetic contribution.

    You can clearly see the loss of synchronisation at the end of SC22 and 23, and the dip and resurgence around 2016-18.

    Bear in mind I did this plot back in 2010. But the serious loss of synchronisation with the ~11 year cycle makes me think this grand minimum could be much deeper than the Dalton and longer too. Unfortunately this model is on a long dead hard drive and corrupted backup, so I can’t resurrect and extend it.

  23. Ian Wilson says:

  24. Ian Wilson says:

    The above plot shows the loss of synchronization took place in the 1780’s and 1790’s. This is at the start of the Dalton Minimum with the extended cycle 4.

  25. Ian Wilson says:

    This shows the 80 year period covering solar cycles 6 through to 12 from 1810 to 1890.

  26. Ian Wilson says:

    This shows the loss of synchronization around 1900 that produced the weakened cycle 14 and 16.

  27. Ian Wilson says:

    This shows the loss of synchronization prior to the onset of cycles 22, 23.and 24. In other words, there have been 3 whole solar sunspot cycles with loss of synchronization. This might indicate that the upcoming minimum may be stronger than a Victorian or Dalton Minimum.

    If the next solar minimum is at the end of 2020 to the start of 2021, it will mark the resynchronization of the solar minimums with the maximum change in Jupiters tangential force acting on the Earth-Venus tidal bulges on the Sun.

  28. Ian Wilson says:

    There is a good argument that Maunder Minimum did not start in 1645 but actually started two whole solar cycles earlier during cycle -11. The plot above supports this with the loss of synchronization taking place around 1615 at the start of cycle -11.

  29. Ian Wilson says:

    And as you can see from the above plot – it appears that end of the Maunder Minimum in 1700 is marked by a loss of synchronization just prior to cycle -4 (the first solar cycle marking the switch back on of normal solar activity).

  30. tallbloke says:

    Serious scholarly work. Just eyeballing, but your blue torque curve seems to pick out single vs twin peak solar maxima quite well.

    It’s going to be very interesting to watch the evolution of solar activity for the rest of my days.

  31. oldbrew says:

    ‘the loss of synchronization taking place around 1615 at the start of cycle -11’

    The Jupiter-Sun line goes via the solar system barycenter around November 1615. The line has also been close to the SSB for over 5 years before that, which may possibly be unusual.

    The Sun passes through the SSB in 1632 (and again in 1811 and 1990 i.e. ~179 year intervals), with the 171.4 year U-N conjunction later, in 1650.

  32. tallbloke says:

    We’re wandering away from the main aspect of Ian’s paper, which is the lunar tidal aspect. Keeling and whorf noted that the 179 year Jose cycle was 1/10 of their 1800 year lunar cycle, but is there a more compelling derivation. Given the strength of De Vries in the paleo record, I’m preferring Ian’s physical layout anyway, but just to be thorough…

  33. oldbrew says:

    From Ian W’s website:
    The 1,832 Lunar tidal cycle proposed by Keeling and Whorf (1998) cannot be reconciled with the 1,470 year spacing found in the Greenland ice-core data

    – – –
    1625 full moon cycles = 669149.69 days (1625 = 13 * 125)
    1832 sidereal years = 669149.65 days (1832 = 14.656 * 125 or 13 * 141, -1)
    (1832 – 1625 = 207 apsidal cycles)

    Planetary conjunctions of J, S and N:
    41 Saturn-Neptune = 74 Jupiter-Saturn = 115 Jupiter-Neptune = ~1470.03 sidereal years
    (Check: 41 + 74 = 115)
    – – –
    Btw… 125 * 2 (=250) FMC = 297 draconic years = 47 ‘lunar wobbles’ (297 – 250)

    Divide DY, FMC and RLA by 7 here…

    Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/06/two-long-term-models-of-lunar-cycles/

  34. Ian Wilson says:

    The real question that needs to be answered is what constraints do the results of this paper have upon the influence of lunar tides on sub-centennial time scales. Nikolay and I address this important question in the second paper of the series. It shows that you can identify the actual lunar cycles that are operating on decadal to sub-decadal scales that are responsible for producing the long-term centennial lunar cycles. Not only that, you show that these processes are capable of describing most of the recent ]i.e. the instrumental record] variations that are seen in the world mean temperature on decadal to inter-decadal time scales (i.e. greater than ~ 7 years).

    Unfortunately, any discussion of the details of this second paper will have delayed until we can get it fully peer-reviewed.

  35. tallbloke says:

    Looking forward to this. Sub centennial natural variation analysis has been way too woolly for way too long.

  36. oldbrew says:

    Date: 06/04/18 Global Warming Policy Foundation

    New understanding of ultra-long timescales provides a new take on climate.

    London, 6 April: A newly published paper in the journal Physica A suggests that there is an undiscovered universe all around us that we are too short-lived to perceive.

    Authors Prof. Christopher Essex (Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario) and Prof. Anastasios Tsonis (Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) explain that even without external influences (e.g. man-made carbon dioxide) the weather patterns change over very long timescales, locally and globally.

    • Climate models do not and cannot employ known physics fully. Thus, they are falsified, a priori.
    • Incomplete physics and the finite representation of computers can induce false instabilities.
    • Eliminating instability can lead to computational overstabilization or false stability.
    • Models on ultra-long timescales are dubiously stable. This is referred to as the “climate state.” Is it real?
    • Decadal variability is understandable in terms of a specific class of nonlinear dynamical systems.



    PDF copies of the paper are available on request from the authors [see GWPF link above]

  37. oldbrew says:

    Some longish comments from Ian W on an ENSO forecast thread here…


  38. Ian Wilson says:


    I posted these comments at Judith’s site in response to her post. Most of what was posted comes from four blogs [astroclimateconnection.blogpost.com] posted in November 2014. Anyone can see these posts. I get on well with Judith Curry but I may have worn out the welcome mat with my somewhat prolific posts on her website.

    I have managed to get a link at WUWT back to this post at the Workshop – hopefully, this might direct a little traffic back over to the light-side of the “force”.

    [reply] thanks

  39. oldbrew says:

    Came across this today…

    Daily to Decadal Modulation of Jet Variability [Feb. 2018]

    The variance of a jet’s position in latitude is found to be related to its average speed: when a jet becomes stronger, its variability in latitude decreases. This relationship is shown to hold for observed midlatitude jets around the world and also across a hierarchy of numerical models. North Atlantic jet variability is shown to be modulated on decadal time scales, with decades of a strong, steady jet being interspersed with decades of a weak, variable jet. These modulations are also related to variations in the basinwide occurrence of high-impact blocking events. A picture emerges of complex multidecadal jet variability in which recent decades do not appear unusual. An underlying barotropic mechanism is proposed to explain this behavior, related to the change in refractive properties of a jet as it strengthens, and the subsequent effect on the distribution of Rossby wave breaking. [bold added]

    Keywords: Atmospheric circulation; Jets; North Atlantic Oscillation; Baroclinic models; Decadal variability
    © 2018 American Meteorological Society.


  40. oldbrew says:

    And this one…

    The influence of the de Vries (∼ 200-year) solar cycle on climate variations: Results from the Central Asian Mountains and their global link [March 2008]

    The results obtained for various tree-ring chronologies indicate palaeoclimatic oscillations in the range of the de Vries (∼ 210-year) solar cycles through the last millennium.

    The quasi-200-year variations revealed in the palaeoclimatic reconstructions correlate well (R2 = 0.58–0.94) with solar activity variations (Δ14C variations). The quasi-200-year climatic variations have also been detected in climate-linked processes in Asia, Europe, North and South America, Australia, and the Arctic and Antarctica. The results obtained point to a pronounced influence of solar activity on global climatic processes.


  41. Ian Wilson says:

    Thanks, oldbrew! – These are both very interesting papers.

  42. Ian Wilson says:


    Here is a little secret that explains the 104-year spectral peak that is seen in both the solar and proxy temperature signals:

    In our paper, we attribute it to being half the 208-year de Vries cycle.

    Now, we believe that it is more likely to be a spectral peak at 106 years.

    The pseudo periods formed by the interactions between the 31/62/93 year Perigean Spring Tidal cycle and the 18.03-year lunar Saros cycle are:

    31 – 18 = 13
    62 – 18 = 44
    93 – 18 = 75
    124 – 18 = 106
    155 – 18 = 137
    186 – 18 = 168 etc.

    Of these six pseudo-cycles, the 106-year cycle has the least drift with respect to the seasons, and so it should be added to the:

    (28.75), (31.00), 59.75, 88.5, 148.25, 208.0-year lunar alignment pattern that is reported in our paper.

    [N.B. 28.75 + 31.0 = 59.75]

    Remember, this is the alignment pattern in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit.


    If you, look lunar alignments is a reference frame that is fixed with respect to the precession of the Earth’s rotation axis, you get the sequence,

    1 x 59.75 = 59.75 years
    2 x 59.75 = 119.5 years
    3 x 59.75 = 179.25 years
    4 x 59.75 = 239.0 years.

    This is the 60-year climate cycle that is seen in the Earth’s trade-winds and other climate parameters.

    [N.B. The 239-year cycle links the lunar tidal alignments to the transit cycle of Venus across the Sun.]

  43. oldbrew says:

    BBC Science: Earth’s magnetic ocean tides mapped from space

    This is the European Space Agency’s spectacular new view of ocean tides as they sweep around the Earth.

    The movie [see link] shows not the bulging movement of water directly, but rather its magnetic signature.

    As the Moon pulls the salty seas through our planet’s global magnetic field, electric currents are generated.

    And these currents then induce their own magnetic signals, which have now been mapped in exquisite detail by a trio of Esa satellites known as Swarm.

    It is a remarkable achievement because the effect is actually very small.
    . . .
    Other satellites will sense the tides as a change in sea-surface height. What is different about the Swarm trio’s magnetic view is that it reveals the movement of the entire water column, right down to the seabed.

    This is important for climate studies. The oceans store and transport vast amounts of heat energy, and getting the more integrated perspective from Swarm enables scientists to build better models of the Earth system.


    [click on image to enlarge]

  44. Ulric Lyons says:

    “There is a good argument that Maunder Minimum did not start in 1645 but actually started two whole solar cycles earlier during cycle -11”

    That’s a big problem as it didn’t turn notably colder until from 1672.

  45. oldbrew says:

    The Sun was at the SS barycentre in 1632 and again in 1671.

  46. Ulric Lyons says:

    Ian Wilson says@
    April 3, 2018 at 12:49 pm

    Your sunspot cycle max dates are way adrift.