Are El Niños Fueled By Deep-Sea Geological Heat Flow?

Posted: April 11, 2018 by oldbrew in ENSO, Geology, Ocean dynamics

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Is there evidence of a cause and effect connection between geological forces and El Niño generation? A look at one theory.

The Next Grand Minimum

El Niño and La Niña weather patterns have a significant impact on California climate. This illustration shows the drought impacts.

west-with-out-water-page-54

Long-term La Niña periods have been associated with long-term droughts in the southwest lasting 200, 90 and 55 years. More specifically severe droughts from AD1021 to 1051, AD1130 to 1180, AD1240 to 1265, AD1360 to 1365.

I often wondered what was the controlling mechanism that generated long-term La Niña conditions with few La Niño conditions. Plate Climatology Theory may be one possible answer, the generation of La Niña events by undersea volcanic activity.

I found this article on Plate Climatology most interesting.

eruptive-warm-burstGeologically induced “Eruptive” warm burst that helps generate 2014-2015 El Nino.

All El Ninos originate at the same fixed “Point Source” located east of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. Fixed point sources are typical of geological features, and not typical of ever moving atmospheric or ocean…

View original post 364 more words

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    From the article Russ Steele linked to:

    ADDENDUM 1

    All El Ninos originate at the same fixed “Point Source” located east of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. Fixed point sources are typical of geological features, and not typical of ever moving atmospheric or ocean current energy sources.

    The Papua New Guinea / Solomon Island area is the most geologically active (volcanic eruptions and earthquakes), and complex deep-ocean regions on earth.

    The shape/map pattern of El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies are unique / one of a kind. These shapes do not match every changing atmospheric or ocean current shapes/map patterns.

    The El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies have “linear” and “intense” boundaries inferring that the energy source is fixed at one point, and is very powerful.

    The shape/distribution pattern of super-heated and chemically charged fluid flow from fixed point source deep-ocean hydrothermal vents is a very good mini-analogy of the larger El Nino ocean warming shapes/distribution patterns.

    The shape/distribution pattern of super-heated and chemically charged fluid flow from fixed point source large continental/dry land volcanic eruptions is a fair analogy of El Nino ocean warming patterns.

    The amount of energy needed to generate an El Nino can be mathematically modeled using a 20-by-30-mile volcanically/earthquake-active deep-sea area (“point source”). The measured energy released from the Yellowstone Plateau, a 20-by-30-mile area, is a good mathematical analogy.

    El Ninos do not occur in a predictable historical pattern, rather they occur randomly. This is indicative of a geological forces origin such as volcanic eruptions which are not predictable.

    El Nino-like events do not occur elsewhere in Pacific. Why? If they are atmospheric in origin, there should at least be other mini-El Ninos elsewhere. There are none.

    La Ninas originate from the same fixed point source as El Ninos. This implies both are geological in nature. La Ninas represents the cooling fluid flow phase from a geological feature.

    Atmospherically based El Nino computer prediction models consistently fail, likely because they are modeling the “effects” of geologically heated oceans and not the root “cause” of the El Ninos.

    Historical records indicate that the first “recorded” El Nino occurred in 1525 observed by Spanish explorers. Other studies suggest strong ancient El Ninos ended Peruvian civilizations. The main point here is that strong El Ninos are natural, and not increasing in relationship to global warming as contended by many activist climate scientists.

  2. Phoenix44 says:

    Which suggests that a great deal of ocean heat comes from geological activity rather than the sun?

    I am always surprised that climate scientists assume that geological activity is either a small or a constant input to their heat equations.

  3. Ian Wilson says:

    No, it’s not the geological activity by itself. The geological activity is a symptom rather than a source the El Nino/La Nina phenomenon.

    El Ninos are triggered by lunar tidally-induced gravity waves that travel along the Earth’s Equator from East Africa out into the equatorial western Pacific Ocean. These traveling gravity waves manifest themselves in the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans as Madden-Julian Oscillations. Roughly about every 4.5 years these Madden-Julian Oscillations start aggressively penetrating into the equatorial western Pacific Ocean setting off westerly wind bursts (WWB’s).It is these WWB’s that disrupt the Pacific trade winds that blow from the Walker circulation wind-pattern that is responsible for keeping holding back the western Warm Pool. Once the Walker Circulation collapses the warm water near Indonesia/Philipines sloshes across to the eastern equatorial Pacific ocean off Peru setting off an El nino event.

    La Nina events occur whenever the Walker Circulation pattern is stronger than normal. They cannot take place during EL Nino events since they are essentially produced by wind and sea current patterns that are the antithesis of those necessary to set off an EL Nino event. Hence, the occurrence of La Ninas is effectively moderated by the occurrence of El Nino events. There is also an 11-year modulation of the strength of La Nina events cause by the 11-year solar sunspot cycle.

    The 200, 90 and 55-year long La Nina driven droughts that were observed are just manifestations of the lunar tidal cycles for extreme Perigean New/Full moon crossing the Earth’s equator. These tidal cycles exhibit a 208-year de Vries cycle, an 88.5-year Gleissberg cycle, and a 59.75-year trade-wind cycle.

    You might want to see our earlier post here at Tallbloke’s Workshop that explains this phenomenon.

  4. Ian Wilson says:

    As Greg over at WUWT has pointed out:

    Clouds Down Under
    Greg April 4, 2018, at 12:52 am

    https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/03/01/61/

    There are strong 9.1-year and 13.0-year spectral power density peaks in the time-derivative of the sea-surface temperatures of many of the basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. He even finds a peak at 20.7 years with much reduced spectral power amplitude.

    There is a simple explanation for the two dominant peaks that have frequencies longer than 7 years which are seen in your spectral power density plot.

    A. 9.1 years – This is just the harmonic mean of the prograde Lunar Anomalistic Cycle (8.85 years) and the retrograde half Lunar Nodical Cycle (18.6 / 2 = 9.3 years).

    2 x (8.85 x 9.3) / (9.3 + 8.85) = 9.069 years ~ 9.1 years.

    B. 13.0 years – If you look for the dominant lunar tidal cycles that are aligned with the seasons,.on inter-decadal time scales, you find that they are the 18.03 year Saros cycle and the 31.0/62.0 year Perigean Spring tidal cycle. The 13.00 year period is just the pseudo cycle caused by the interaction of these two cycles. Or put more simply:

    31 years – 18 years = 13 years.

    The weaker peak at 20.7 years is most likely the 20.2937-year peak associated with extreme Perigean New/Full Moons

  5. oldbrew says:

    There are strong 9.1-year and 13.0-year spectral power density peaks in the time-derivative of the sea-surface temperatures of many of the basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

    13 year could be the Chandler wobble (11 per 13 years)?

  6. Ian Wilson says:

    In the first of my post above I said:

    “No, it’s not the geological activity by itself. The geological activity is a symptom rather than a source the El Nino/La Nina phenomenon.”

    What I meant by this is the lunar tidal forces associated with the Extreme Perigean New/Full moons massages the Earth as to produce a ~ 90-year Gleissberg-like variation in the level of seismic and volcanic activity. This reinforced (& interacts with) the ~ 60/90/208-year cycles seen in the atmosphere and oceans.

  7. Ian Wilson says:

    It turns out that the Chandler wobble is just a manifestation of Lunar tidal cycles.
    It is related to the slippage between the Earth’s tropical year and the lunar Full Moon Cycle.

    18 years + (2 x Chandler Wobble) = 18 Full Moon cycles + 1 synodic month

    or

    9 years + Chandler Wobble = 9 Full Moon cycles + 1/2 synodic month

    1 synodic month = 29.530589 days (Lunar phase month)
    Full Moon Cycle = 411.78443025 days
    1.0 Chandler Wobble = 433.65 days

    it is also true that

    2 x Chandler Wobble = Quasi-Biennial Oscillation.

  8. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew,

    Though you are right about 11 CW taking place roughly once every 13 tropical years.

  9. Ian Wilson says:

    It is also true that slippage between the Full Moon Cycle (FMC) and the Lunar EVection Cycle (LEC) in synodic months is such that:

    18 Lunar Evection Cycles = 18 Full Moon cycles + 1 synodic month

    or

    9 Lunar Evection Cycles = 9 Full Moon cycles + 1/2 synodic month

    1 synodic month = 29.530589 days (Lunar phase month)
    Full Moon Cycle = 411.78443025 days
    Lunar Evection cycle = 14 x Synodic months = 413.428244 days

    which means that 251 lunar synodic months = 18 Full Moon Cycles = 20.2937 tropical years

    If you start out with a New/Full moon that is extremely close to Perigee, you get back a New/Full moon that is also extremely close to perigee 18 FMC’s (= 20.29371 tropical years = 20.29292 sidereal years) later.

  10. Ian Wilson says:

    One Important point that Greg Goodman states on his blog site is:

    “In trying to understand changes in climate [e.g. Temperature], it would be logical to look at the rate of change [of temperauture] directly rather than trying to guess at its causes by looking at the various time series of temperature data.

    This is also important since most of what climate science refers to as “forcings” are power terms measured in W/m2. Temperature is a measure of energy, so it is the rate of change of temperature that reflects power.”

  11. oldbrew says:

    251 lunar synodic months = 18 Full Moon Cycles = 20.2937 tropical years

    Also = ~269 anomalistic months (269 – 251 = 18)

    Update: hence this of course…

    If you start out with a New/Full moon that is extremely close to Perigee, you get back a New/Full moon that is also extremely close to perigee 18 FMC’s (= 20.29371 tropical years = 20.29292 sidereal years) later. – IW @ 3.00pm.

  12. Ian Wilson says:

    Of course if:

    18 years + (2 x Chandler Wobble) = 18 Full Moon cycles + 1 synodic month (1)

    and

    18 Lunar Evection Cycles = 18 Full Moon cycles + 1 synodic month (2)

    and so from (2)

    18 Full Moon cycles = 18 Lunar Evection Cycles – 1 synodic month

    Substituting this back into (1)

    18 years + (2 x Chandler Wobble) = 18 Evection Cycles

    or

    9 years + Chandler Wobble = 9 Evection Cycles

    Hence: Chandler Wobble = ( 9 Evection Cycles – 9 (tropical) years)

  13. oldbrew says:

    Release of water shakes Pacific plate at depth
    Date: January 11, 2017
    Source: Washington University in St. Louis

    Summary:
    A team of seismologists analyzing the data from 671 earthquakes that occurred between 30 and 280 miles beneath the Earth’s surface in the Pacific Plate as it descended into the Tonga Trench were surprised to find a zone of intense earthquake activity in the downgoing slab. The pattern of the activity along the slab provided strong evidence that the earthquakes are sparked by the release of water at depth.
    . . .
    “The pressure of the fluid causes earthquakes in the same way that wastewater injected into deep wells causes them in Oklahoma,” Wiens said. “Although the details are very different when it’s many miles down, it’s the same physical process. ”

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170111151428.htm

  14. oldbrew says:

    Q. Is there any correlation between La Niña/El Niño and seismic activity?

    http://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/947/is-there-any-correlation-between-la-ni%C3%B1a-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-seismic-activity

    There is a case study from Environmental Science entitled El Niño: A Link among Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Crustal Circulation? that discusses the correlations between seismic activity and El Niño cycles in certain areas of the world, that have been documented:

    Case Study: El Niño: A Link among Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Crustal Circulation?
    Republished From: Environmental Science 2016

    Published: July 2, 2014, 6:16 pm
    Author: Cutler J. Cleveland
    Topics:
    Chapter 4 The Physical Systems of Planet Earth

    The East Pacific Rise is located west of Easter Island. Along this rise, tectonic plates move 160–170 mm (6.3–6.7 inches) per year. This rate is one of the most rapid in the world. As a result, seismic activity along the East Pacific Rise has been studied extensively for more than thirty years. During this period scientists have tracked the number of earthquakes and the amount of energy they release.

    While plotting these data, Walker noticed an interesting pattern: Months with the greatest number of earthquakes or months with earthquakes that release the greatest amount of energy precede the onset of El Niño events. This hints at a relationship between seismic activity and El Niño events.

    http://www.trunity.net/sam2/view/article/51cbf4007896bb431f6aeb04/

  15. oldbrew says:

    El Niño source is clear here, near the coast of Peru (reddish blob, centre right).

    Snapshot is from NASA video available here (13 secs.):
    http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/nasa-sees-a-different-kind-of-el-nino

    One wonders how the Moon could cause such a local effect?

    Update: however the Peru ‘effect’ doesn’t seem to tally with the claim that ‘All El Ninos originate at the same fixed “Point Source” located east of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.’

    Not in any obvious way at least.

  16. pochas94 says:

    oldbrew: “El Ninos do not occur in a predictable historical pattern, rather they occur randomly. ”

    How about that 60 year PDO cycle?

  17. Bitter@twisted says:

    Either way you look at it, geological activity or lunar-driven atmospheric circulation patterns, it ain’t CO2!

  18. oldbrew says:

    pochas – AFAIK it’s an open question whether El Niños fit into ~60-year cycles in any recognisable way.

    NASA’s view:
    The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean, similar to the El Niño/La Niña cycles but on a much larger scale. The PDO waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years.
    http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/

    But NASA also says of the PDO:
    A ‘cool’ phase occurred from 1947 to 1976 (29 years), and a ‘warm’ phase from 1977 to 1999 (22 years). However, more recently, the ‘warm’ and ‘cold’ phases have been much shorter. In 1999, we entered into a ‘cold’ phase for about 4 years (1999-2002) followed by a ‘warm’ phase that continued for 3 years. The phase was then neutral until 2007, when we entered into a ‘cold’ phase that lasted through 2013. The last PDO phase shift was in 2014, when it turned strongly positive (‘warm’). [bold added]
    . . .
    Q. What about El Niño and La Niña?

    A. These will still continue, they are a pattern that can be thought of as lying on top of the large scale temperature distribution determined by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

    http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/

    What Is El Niño?
    http://www.livescience.com/3650-el-nino.html

  19. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew: “El Ninos do not occur in a predictable historical pattern, rather they occur randomly. ”

    This is demonstrably wrong! – They do occur in a predictable pattern. In fact, I predicted the start of 2015/16 El Nino in March of 2015. In addition, I have made predictions as to when the next moderate to strong El Nino events will occur. The only uncertainty will be whether they occur when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points at the Sun during the Solstices (i.e. an El Nino will start this year around June) or when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points at the Sun at the Equinoxes (i.e. an EL Nino starting in 2020).

  20. Ian Wilson says:

  21. Ian Wilson says:

  22. Ian Wilson says:

    The NPI Index is effectively the same as the PDO index.

    [Talkshop note] NPI = North Pacific Index

  23. oldbrew says:

    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
    DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    issued by
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
    and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
    08 March 2018

    ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

    Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely (~55% chance) during the March-May season, with neutral conditions likely to continue into the second half of the year.

    Read more here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

  24. oldbrew says:

    This looks interesting…

    Spatio-temporal structure of the pentadecadal variability over the North Pacific [2000]
    Shoshiro Minobeab

    http://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00042-2

    A wavelet analysis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI) showed that the regime shifts in the 1920s, 1940s and 1970s involved simultaneous phase reversals of the bidecadal and pentadecadal variations. The two interdecadal variations are synchronized with one another such that a half period of the pentadecadal oscillation (one epoch of an individual regime) corresponds to one and half periods of the bidecadal oscillation. These results are consistent with the wavelet analysis of the North Pacific Index (NPI). Similar resonance between the bidecadal and pentadecadal variations is evident in air-temperatures over Alaska. The bidecadal and pentadecadal signals have different seasonality in these time series, suggesting that although the two interdecadal variations arise from two different physical mechanisms, they interact with each other. The most distinct seasonal difference was observed in mid-latitude western North America, where the bidecadal variation prevails only in the winter season and the pentadecadal variation only in the spring season. [bold added]

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661100000422

  25. Ian Wilson says:

    You can actually see the following:

    1/2 a period of Penta-decadal oscillation = 1 1/2 periods of bi-decadal oscillation

    OR

    One period of Penta-decadal oscillation = 3 periods of bi-decadal oscillation

    in the wavelet spectrum of the winter NPI **

    The vertical red lines in this figure group the Penta-decadal and bi-decadal oscillations together
    in this exact ratio.

    [reply] indeed
    [** see comment: April 12, 2018 at 10:24 am]

  26. oldbrew says:

    NOAA: Monitoring of ENSO conditions primarily focuses on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 4 geographic regions of the equatorial Pacific (see image).

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/enso-tech.php

  27. oldbrew says:

    Another fail for climate alarmism…

    70+ Papers: Holocene Sea Levels 2 Meters Higher – Today’s Sea Level Change Indistinguishable From Noise
    By Kenneth Richard on 12. April 2018

    More than 70 recent scientific publications show that there is absolutely nothing unusual about the magnitude and rapidity of today’s sea level changes. These academically peer-reviewed papers show that sea levels were 2 meters higher earlier in the Holocene than they are today.

    http://notrickszone.com/2018/04/12/70-papers-holocene-sea-levels-2-meters-higher-todays-sea-level-change-indistinguishable-from-noise/

  28. That geothermal heat is causing or affecting ENSO is nonsense. According to Wikipedia the world’s oceans contains 1.3 billion cubic km. These hot spots are situated several kilometers below sea surface in frigid cold water. Even if some warm water from hot spots reached sea surface, the area this heat would cover is just a speck in the vast area of the Tropical Pacific Ocean. You need energy to warm large volumes of water, lots of it, and this theory doesn’t compute physically. ENSO is driven by variation in the tides, the Earth’s magnetic field and solar activity. In other words, ENSO is driven by external forces.

    The physics behind ENSO is relative simple. El Niños are basically a ventilation mechanism where a pocket of warm water in western tropical Pacific Ocean has been accumulated over time during neutral or La Niña ENSO conditions, driven by wind and currents.

    So, we know where the heat is coming from. It’s from solar heated surface water drifting from the east filling the warm pool of western pacific. When the MJO index is active over Western Pacific Ocean in an area called the Kelvin Generation Area east of New Guinea, the trade wind in this area change direction. When that happens, a pulse of warm water is generated, a Kelvin Wave, which move to the east under the surface along the equator.

    Depending on pressure conditions this warm water can dissolve or reach the surface. If it reaches the surface it creates or add heat to El Niño. This is going on right now. We can expect warm water from the current Kelvin Wave to emerge in eastern pacific in about a month’s time. Of course, there are other dynamic phenomena associated with ENSO such as Walker circulations, La Niña and QBO which makes prediction difficult. But, I’m working on it and expect to crack it eventually.

  29. oldbrew says:

    Per – re ‘the Kelvin Generation Area east of New Guinea’

    That brings us back to the post:
    All El Ninos originate at the same fixed “Point Source” located east of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. Fixed point sources are typical of geological features

    If ‘ENSO is driven by variation in the tides, the Earth’s magnetic field and solar activity. In other words, ENSO is driven by external forces’ – why does it always originate in the same place? The Sun doesn’t know where New Guinea is, except that it’s near the equator.

  30. Ian Wilson says:

    Two of my messages have gone to the trash bin again

  31. Ian Wilson says:

    oldbrew,

    The “Point Source” located east of Papua-New Guinea is where the Pacific Penetrating Madden Julian Oscillations (MJOs) emerge into the western Pacific ocean.

    An MJO consists of a large-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and atmospheric deep convection. When an MJO is at its strongest, between the western Indian and western Pacific Oceans, it exhibits characteristics that approximate those of a hybrid-cross between a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave and an Equatorial Rossby wave (Masunaga 2007, Kang et al. 2013, MacRitchie 2014). When an MJO moves from the western Indian Ocean into the western Pacific Ocean [near the “Point Source” located east of Papua-New Guinea], it generally accelerates, becomes less strongly coupled to convection, and transitions into a convectively de-coupled (i.e. dry) Kelvin wave.

    Periodically (i.e. roughly once every 4.5 years), the precise alignments of the lunar tidal forcings produce the right conditions that result in an upsurge in the number and magnitude of what I call Pacific Penetrating MJO. These are MJO events that travel from the Eastern equatorial Indian Ocean along the Equator, all the way into the Western Pacific Ocean, where they initiate Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB’s). Lian et al. (2014) and Chen et al. (2015) have shown that for every major El Nino event since 1964, the drop off in easterly trade wind strength has been preceded by a marked increase in westerly wind bursts (WWB) in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean.

    Hence, the only reason that originates in the same place is that this is where the Lunar- driven equatorial Kelvin waves emerge into the Western Pacific ocean along the Coriolis equator.

  32. oldbrew says:

    This report mentions hefty offshore earthquakes near PNG around the time of the last two big El Ninos.

    A HUGE earthquake measuring 6.9 magnitude struck off the coast of New Britain island in Papua New Guinea this morning, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) said.
    PUBLISHED: 09:17, Mon, Oct 17, 2016
    . . .
    In July 1998, two undersea quakes measuring 7.0 magnitude created three tsunamis that killed at least 2,100 people near the town of Aitape on Papua New Guinea’s north coast.
    . . .
    Papua New Guinea is on the Pacific “Ring of Fire” which has frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/721920/Papua-New-Guinea-earthquake-erupts
    – – –
    Certainly a geologically active area.
    (PNG is just below the blue arc above Australia).

  33. oldbrew says:

    IW: When an MJO moves from the western Indian Ocean into the western Pacific Ocean [near the “Point Source” located east of Papua-New Guinea], it generally accelerates, becomes less strongly coupled to convection, and transitions into a convectively de-coupled (i.e. dry) Kelvin wave..

    It’s interesting that this point is at/near where the Ring of Fire meets/crosses the Equator.

  34. I find that many, especially environmentalists, are not able to realize the immense size and volumes of Earth’s atmosphere, oceans or ice sheets. Let’s examine one cubic kilometer of water. Imagine a tunnel filled with sea water that is 1 kilometer long and has a cross section square of 10 meter * 10 meter. Place 99 equally sized tunnels beside the first one. Then you have tunnels covering a square kilometer and the combined length of these tunnels are 100 kilometers. Add now tunnels so that they cover a volume of 1 cubic kilometer, then the total length of these tunnels becomes 10 000 kilometers.

    10 000 kilometers is about the distance across Eurasia from Lisbon to Seoul. Now change the cross sections of the tunnel from a square keeping the same cross section area, to a width of 30 meters and a depth of about 3 meters. Then we have a swimming pool like that which is used in swimming competitions, but twice as wide. Imagine now a similar swimming pool which cover the distance from Lisbon to Seoul filled with 1 cubic kilometer of water. There are 1.3 billion cubic kilometers of sea water and about 7.5 billion people on this planet. If a flag was distributed equally on Earth’s water for every person on Earth, then there would be about 5 flags on this long swimming pool. If a person would walk about 30 kilometers a day, that’s about 20 miles, then it would take about a year to walk that distance. Imagine the huge amount of energy needed to heat 1 cubic kilometer of water just 1 degree.

    Anyone who thinks that the world’s oceans are now becoming saturated with CO2 or that hot vents could have a measurable temperature affect on sea surface temperature, does not know what he/she is talking about.

    The reason that the water is warm in the Kelvin Generation Area around the Salomon Islands is because warm surface water is pushed west by the wind and currents, this water becomes blocked by New Guinea and local water current conditions and forms a pool of 30 C warm water which goes down several hundreds of meters in depth.

    Some people claims there are correlations with geological activities and lunar cycles. That may be true, but that is something I haven’t studied. Lunar cycles are connected to ENSO.

  35. oldbrew says:

    ‘The average sea temperature in and around Papua New Guinea in May is 28°C (82°F).’
    http://www.weather2travel.com/may/papua-new-guinea/

    Northern Papua New Guinea: ‘Water temperature is wonderful at around 82 – 84 deg F (28 – 30 deg C) ‘
    http://www.mvgoldendawn.com/wewak.htm

    ‘The 2013 Solomon Islands earthquake struck northeast of Australia on 6 February with a moment magnitude of 8.0 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of VIII (Severe). Its epicenter was the Solomon Islands, at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates
    . . .
    The earthquake was formed on the boundary between the Pacific and Australian plates. This area has very complicated faulting patterns that are very close to the Solomon Island arcs and Vanuatu Island arcs. The area is used to high frequency, low to moderate intensity seismic activity.[1] However, many of the “larger events recorded have involved intraplate and interplate earthquakes with magnitudes up to about 8.0, several of which were located near the abrupt bends in the arcs.[1] The Solomon Islands appear to have more seismic activity than the other areas earthquake productivity than most areas. The area also seems to produce more earthquake “doublets” and “triplets,” a deviation from the normal earthquake aftershock in which a second and sometimes third earthquake can be produced from the aftershock of the first earthquake.[6] This occurs rarely, maybe once or twice a year, making this area a unique seismic area.’ [bold added]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Solomon_Islands_earthquake

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