Cooling Ocean Air Temps

Posted: June 6, 2018 by oldbrew in Analysis, Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, Temperature

Despite warming due to atmospheric trace gases being a racing certainty according to the IPCC and like-minded theorists, evidence of it is getting ever harder to find.

Science Matters

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.

Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST.  He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months.  This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?

The May update to HadSST3 will appear later this month, but in the meantime we can look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6…

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  1. stpaulchuck says:

    everyone knows that all the heat is hiding in the deep oceans! or somewhere. (ha ha ha)

  2. oldbrew says:

    The Earth either gets endlessly warmer, endlessly cooler, or something in between.

    ‘In between’ matches recorded history, the others don’t – suggesting some balancing mechanisms going on, even if they don’t always keep things entirely in order.

  3. erl happ says:

    The Indian Ocean has warmed to a greater extent than any other ocean basin over many decades.It’s the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Currently its showing negative anomalies over much of its extent.

    It would seem that the Indian Ocean receives little water from the Antarctic circumpolar current. The current accelerated with the westerly winds as surface pressure fell on the margins of Antarctica and rose in the mid latitudes. In contrast, the Pacific is much affected by uprising cold waters driven by the Antarctic circumpolar current. Parts of the Pacific are cooler today than fifty years ago.

    The southern hemisphere taken as a whole, land and water is no warmer in December- January, in the height of summer, than it was in the 1950’s. All the warming has occurred in winter. The recent trend is for cooler winters. I sit here typing, at 33° south latitude, on the margins of the Indian Ocean with five layers of clothing and a blanket wrapped around.

    With rising CO2 the planet is greening. The future is bright. But if the winter were a little warmer, the Earth would be more productive.

  4. oldbrew says:

    June 5, 2018
    100 Days ago The End of the World Was Near

    By sunshinehours

    100 days ago the arctic was so hot (but still 10C below freezing) the world was going to end.

    The green line is normal. The blue line is 0C – freezing.

    Not so much now. It is slightly below normal … and has been normal for 75 days.

    And it is now suspiciously quiet.
    – – –
    Alarmists disappointed again.

  5. Tenuc says:

    Hi Erl,
    “…I sit here typing, at 33° south latitude, on the margins of the Indian Ocean with five layers of clothing and a blanket…”

    Just got back from a holiday in St Francis Bay, RSA (34° S) – a regular haunt of mine. Can confirm the water was the coldest I’ve known it, with the locals bitching about down at my favourite bar. Whilst this anecdotal info is only weather, not climate, perhaps we might be seeing the start of a longer-term regional weather/climate regimen?

  6. oldbrew says:

    Science fiction: still pretending that humans can control global temperatures…

    Large cli­mate un­cer­tainty even with a 1.5-de­gree tem­per­a­ture in­crease
    June 7, 2018

    Just another in the endless stream of climate fake news stories.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Volvo Ocean Race Collects Valuable New Ocean Data

    While microplastics are a key focus of this year’s ocean race, the expedition has also been a valuable opportunity to collect other useful meteorological and oceanographic measurements. Data such as sea surface temperatures, sea surface salinity, chlorophyll concentrations, and carbon dioxide concentrations (partial pressure of CO2) will help scientists learn more about Earth’s climate. About one-third of human CO2 emissions are absorbed by the oceans, making accurate measurements a key component to understanding the exchange of carbon between Earth’s oceans and atmosphere.

  8. ren says:

    SST Anomaly Time Series

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