Arctic Ice Beats Odds July 14

Posted: July 17, 2018 by oldbrew in data, sea ice, solar system dynamics

No ammunition for obsessive climate doomsters here as sea ice refuses to conform to man-made dogmas.

Science Matters


In June 2018, Arctic ice extent held up against previous years despite the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk being ice-free.  The Arctic core is showing little change, perhaps due to increased thickness (volume) as reported by DMI.

The image above shows ice extents on day 195 (July 14) for years 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2018. Note this year ice is strong on both Russian and N. American sides.  Beaufort Sea and Canadian Archipelago are solid. E. Siberian and Chukchi Seas are also solid, despite early melting in Bering Sea.  Hudson and Baffin bays still have considerable ice compared to other years.

The graph below shows how the Arctic extent has faired in July compared to the 11 year average and to some years of interest.
Arctic day 195
Note that 2018 started July well above the 11 year average and other recent years.  As of day 195 (yesterday) ice extent is still…

View original post 170 more words

  1. oldbrew says:

    Two years ago…
    From The Guardian: Sun 21 Aug 2016 07.00 BST

    Interview: ‘Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’
    by: Robin McKie

    Scientist Peter Wadhams believes the summer ice cover at the north pole is about to disappear, triggering even more rapid global warming.
    . . .
    Ice-free means the central basin of the Arctic will be ice-free and I think that that is going to happen in summer 2017 or 2018.
    – – –
    Sorry Prof – not even close 😎
    The Demise Of Arctic Sea Ice Since 1971
    Posted on July 17, 2018 by tonyheller

    The animation below [see link] alternates between current sea ice extent in green, and 1971 end of summer extent in white. Reggie better fire up his blowtorch.

  2. ivan says:

    We also have some US university kooks trying to scare the internet generation with rising sea levels supposedly taking out the under sea cables

    I suppose they should be congratulated for ingenuity in finding something new to keep the plebs afraid of global warming.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Date: 19/07/18 Ron Clutz, Science Matters

    No one knows how long this divergence of surplus ice will persist, but for now 2018 Arctic ice extent resembles a hockey stick. Presently the ice is 525.000 km^2 above 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive) and ~1M km^2 greater than 2007.

    – – –
    What happened to ‘rapidly melting’ Arctic ice in its ‘death spiral’ and ‘ice free Arctic by 2013/14/15/16/17/18’ etc?

  4. ren says:

    ENSO will remain neutral. The ice will grow.

  5. ren says:

    MASIE uses the most recent full day of data from NIC, obtained nightly. As is the rule with operational centers, gaps in production can occur without warning.

  6. ren says:

    Beaufort Sea

  7. oldbrew says:

    Can anyone make sense of this?

    Slowing Gulf Stream current to boost warming for 20 years
    By Matt McGrath
    Environment correspondent
    19 July 2018

    Now the authors say that the big decline in Amoc flow since 2004 means less heat going into the waters and more into the air, leading to higher global temperatures. And that is likely to continue.

  8. ren says:

    Oldbrew El Niño works in a similar way. In this way, the ocean gives away the accumulated energy by increasing the amount of water vapor.

  9. oldbrew says:

    ren – the previous two phases of the AMOC are a lot longer than the latest one by the look of it? Note this diagram appears to end in about 2012-13.

    The top panel shows global average surface temperature changes since 1950, with two periods of slower change and a period of rapid warming from 1975 to 2000. The lower panels show the strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation. The blue (and, on the right, purple) curve is the salinity north of 45N, an indirect measure, or proxy, for the AMOC strength. The green curve is an established proxy of AMOC.

    Ka-Kit Tung/University of Washington

  10. oldbrew says:

    Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years

    Here we provide several lines of palaeo-oceanographic evidence that Labrador Sea deep convection and the AMOC have been anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so (since the end of the Little Ice Age, LIA, approximately 1850) compared with the preceding 1,500 years.

  11. ren says:

    oldbrew-in my opinion, the temperature has increased for the period of El Niño and the Golfstrom will speed up again.

  12. ren says:

    oldbrew-if the ice rises east of Greenland, the salt water will fall lower and the Golfstrom will accelerate.

  13. ren says:

    Surface temperature of the western Atlantic.

  14. oldbrew says:

    USA – June 1933 was hottest
    Filed under: NOAA,Temperature,USA — sunshinehours1 @ 8:22 AM
    Tags: June 2018, NOAA, Temperature

    And by hottest i mean Maximum Temperature. Globalists use Average Temps because minimums are skyrocketing because of UHI.

    Minimums for USA at bottom of this post.

  15. ren says:

    Map shows the surface salinity in the Arctic Sea.

  16. oldbrew says:

    Charlatans Of The Arctic… Laughing Stock Ice-Free-Arctic Predictions …Fake Science At Its Best
    By P Gosselin on 21. July 2018

    Brimstone and fire predictions of an ice-free Arctic made 10 years ago by leading scientists, politicians and media outlets are emerging today as preposterous.

    Recently climate catastrophe non-believers have been pointing out that Arctic sea ice volume has been gaining over the past years and has not trended downward for some dozen years now.

    And global warming alarmists have been very silent on the subject of climate change now that global surface temperatures have cooled and Arctic and Greenland snow and ice have rebounded.

    Embarrassed, they don’t want to be reminded of all the absurd predictions they made 10 years ago, with some as recently as just five years ago.

    Now is a good time to remind them and ourselves once more of these preposterous, charlatan-quality predictions.

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