Automakers could be fined more than €14Bn for European CO2 excess emissions in 2021

Posted: August 6, 2018 by oldbrew in Emissions, ideology, Travel
Tags: ,

With electric vehicles mostly failing to impress buyers, and diesel sales taking a nosedive, European car makers are running short of options to get anywhere near the arbitrary emissions targets imposed on them. Battering a successful industry that so many people depend on for transport and employment seems a strange, not to say crazy, policy in a competitive world.

New analysis by IHS Markit suggests that automakers failing to meet 2021 fleet CO2 emissions compliance for passenger vehicles sold in the European Union (EU) could be fined more than €14 billion (US$16 billion) in 2021, reports Green Car Congress.

Legislators in the European Union (EU) are imposing a new passenger car fleet CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km, to be phased in during 2020, with 100% application in 2021 on Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP).

New passenger car fleets that fail to meet compliance are set for potentially substantial fines in both 2020 and 2021.

The IHS Markit baseline scenario (one of various scenarios) suggests that the EU28 sales-weighted passenger car phased (best 95%) fleet CO2 average in 2020 is likely to reach 102.3 g/km (NEDC).

This includes 4 g/km of CO2 reduction derived from super credits and a further 2 g/km of CO2 reduction from forecasted eco-innovation technology deployment. In 2020, fines paid by OEMs could amount to €11 billion (US$12.7 billion).

Furthermore, with a 2021 target set at 114.9 g/km (as the 95 g/km New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) target is adjusted to an equivalent WLTP value), IHS Markit forecasts that the sales-weighted passenger car fleet CO2 average will reach 122.9 g/km (WLTP).

If this level of excess emission is unable to be curtailed, it could lead to a total of €14 billion in excess emission premiums.

Continued here.

  1. p.g.sharrow says:

    Looks to me that, European car buyers will be subjected to an Enviro Tax of 925.00 per vehicle…pg

  2. oldbrew says:

    The best bet for the car makers could be the 48-volt mild hybrid.

    VW group sales boss Fred Kappler hinted, as did Daimler chief financial officer Bodo Uebber, that the arrival of 48V mild hybrids could yet spring some of the manufacturers from the risk of significant fines. Evercore analysts say 48V systems can improve the economy of a typical compact turbocharged petrol engine by as much as 20% and will be cheaper to manufacture than a modern diesel unit.

    But very few such models are in production as of now.

  3. Zeke says:

    The zero emissions vehicle makers get fees/charges directly from the real auto makers in the US. That means the person who buys a truck in the rural areas pays a tax for a vanity car in the urban area they did not even buy.

    Well, I thought the Europeans had already invented an infinite taxation machine with the VAT. But taxing someone for something they never bought — that’s incredible. What are they going to name it?

  4. ivan says:

    It would appear that the EU is in panic mode because the UK is going to leave and when we do the money tap should be turned off. Like all good left communist regimes they need more money for their next 5 year plan and bureaucrats pensions and they think this will be a way of getting it.

  5. Saighdear says:

    All this nonsense about CO2: more on the bbc thismorning, BUT could someone tell me what the mpg of electric cars is? Really? …. NO hydrocarbons burnt? – what’s THAT got to do with it, I refer to the Mileage per kW of electric power put through the meter to fill its battery ” mpg” as in making a film when NO film is used since we are now digital… get the drift?
    Clearly the car doing 20mpg compared to one doing 50mpg is NOT miraculously do 50 mpg when run on electric is it? There in lies the Eco dilemma and Spin from the greens. Maybe if we had enough Spin from them the wheels would turn faster.

  6. Bitter@twisted says:

    Another good reason for a clean Brexit from the EUSSR.

  7. Adam Gallon says:
    You reckon our Government would exempt us from this, even if we completely cut our ties with the EU?

  8. oldbrew says:

    Date: 06/08/18 Clean Energy Wire

    A car industry manager said “we can’t believe how lucky we are” in light of Scholz’s car-friendly initiatives

    Germany’s finance minister and vice chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has shot down a plan by environment minister Svenja Schulze (SPD) to introduce ambitious emissions reduction standards across the EU in order to meet the climate targets agreed on in the Paris Agreement, Gerald Traufetter and Simon Hage write in Der Spiegel.

    So the Germans announce to the EU what the car policy is?

  9. cognog2 says:


    I have just done a few calcs. on your query: The UK grid emissions runs at about 450 g/Kwhr. average but it varies depending on the weather and timing. Sometimes less than 280 g/Kwhr. So it depends on when you charge the battery if you want to know the g/Km figure at the time.
    The average Km/Kwhr. out of the 7 EVs I looked at was 5.65 Km/Whr. So if you divide that into the grid emission figure you get the g/Km average which varies between about 50 to 95 g/Km.
    These figures are based on manufacturers claims. What they are in practice is mere conjecture for me; but I do wonder what would happened on those cold winter days with little wind!
    Meanwhile there are still many that actually believe that EVs are zero emission vehicles! !

    As for the current obsession with CO2 I despair as we trundle towards the economic consequences.

  10. Saighdear says:

    Great! …. a response – Thanks cognog2! Yes and another thing – Daft Jo has no real idea about his real fuel consumption – puts in £10 worth, etc or goes by 1/2 tank full and did so many miles….. Seldom Tank brim to brim.
    NOW, how big is the Electrical tank? so its back to mpc ( miles per charge) ? Useable charge, etc and useable operation – not like a dim torchbulb, Heck even modern LED torches “Cut off” when voltage drops too far…. and all you wanted was a weepsie lightie to find the key on the ground in the grass….

  11. Phoenix44 says:

    Just utterly cowardly as much as anything. Why fine the car makers instead of taxing the petrol users?

    Because then we would all be aware of the costs of this nonsense. Instead the car makers will just up the price and/or cut the wages (over time) of their workers. But we won’t notice that, so the politicians can continue to be utter cowards and liars – it will all be free and jobs too!

  12. cognog2 says:

    Yes Saighdear. There is a lot of fluffy logic around these days. I had a do with Nissan sometime back when they started advertising their “Leaf” as Zero Emission. I take my hat off to Nissan here as they did withdraw on this; but the advertising Standards Authority stuck with the tailpipe definition as acceptable. A good example of duff beurocracy alongside pragmatic capitalism.

  13. oldbrew says:

    One thing they ignore is that if/when vehicles become more fuel efficient, people are more likely to use them more.

  14. Stephen Richards says:

    We already pay many car taxes. In france, an SUV such as the new BMW Q7 or the Hyundai Sante Fe can cost you 10.300€ in CO2 showroom tax.

    A change in how they measure MPG, Ltrs/100kms will just increase that tax. We are seeing the end of the European car industry especially for medium (5 ltrs / 100kms) to high capacity vehicles.

    My Hyundai at 6ltrs will be taxed to death along with all SUVs. The only people driving large capacity vehicles will be public ‘servants’

  15. Saighdear says:

    @ oldbrew the old chestnut……people are more likely to use them more. – what IS wrong about that? like Food – cheaper becomes affordable becomes “healthier – 🙂 ” and then look what has happened to the Western civilisation…. Using the car more means greater mobilty – Gr8 BUT less Excercise……

  16. Saighdear says:

    @Stephen Richards; Hear what you say… what about the cars n vans used by the Public Sector and in rural areas. Had a Gr8 towing experience at the weekend: one way 30 mpg, reverse / return 20 mpg + breakdown middle o’ ‘e night – gettin Granma’ oot o’ bed to collect us – good job she has bulk diesel on tap – ” What’ll it be in the future? – oh the State needs my car’s battery to support the grid?

  17. stpaulchuck says:

    just another money grab by socialist big spenders, nothing really to do with anything else

  18. oldbrew says:


    07 Aug 2018
    Plans to bulldoze German villages for lignite move forward
    National Public Radio

    Centuries-old villages across Germany are being bulldozed to make way for brown coal mines, Esme Nicholson reports for American broadcaster National Public Radio. Despite the country’s substantial investment in renewable energy deployment, coal still supplied 37 percent of Germany’s electricity last year, according to the report. Germany is the world’s biggest lignite miner, sullying its reputation as a pioneer of clean energy, Nicholson says.
    – – –
    So they don’t reckon thousands of wind turbines can do the job? Obviously not.

    Somehow it’s hard to believe they will face massive fines for their ’emissions’ :/

  19. oldbrew says:

    Hydrogen fuel breakthrough in Queensland could fire up massive new export market

    Two cars powered by hydrogen derived from ammonia will be tested in Brisbane today thanks to a Queensland breakthrough that CSIRO researchers say could turn Australia into a renewable energy superpower.
    . . .
    For the past decade, researchers have worked on producing ultra-high purity hydrogen using a unique membrane technology.

    The membrane breakthrough will allow hydrogen to be safely transported and used as a mass production energy source.

    “We are certainly the first to demonstrate the production of very clean hydrogen from ammonia,” Dr Dolan said.

    “Today is the very first time in the world that hydrogen cars have been fuelled with a fuel derived from ammonia — carbon-free fuel.”
    – – –
    But as of now hydrogen cars are horrendously expensive.

  20. cognog2 says:

    Oldbrew: Yes very expensive. Currently a PEM/FC system (Proton !membrane/ Fuel Cell) costs about £5000 per KW out put and requires one gram of platinum per KW. No idea how true that is.
    Producing it with wind/solar would require loads of backup storage or fossil energy.
    The hydrogen to ammonia transfer sounds good but again the devil is in the detail and I cannot comment.
    The link appears highly optimistic.

  21. ivan says:

    cognog2, since the ABC is an avid supporter of all things green one should take anything they report on with a shovel full of salt. Most of their reports are just gilding the lilly with a load of hype.

  22. J Martin says:

    Mercedes Benz has produced a diesel car that is cleaner than a hybrid car under the new obsession of nox polution. Currently my Euro 5 Skoda diesel car is nearly 4 years old, when it gets to 5 years I will change it for another diesel, presumably a Euro 6.

  23. nickreality65 says:

    Climate change has turned science/engineering/economics into full time bullshit factories.

    The Radiative Green House Effect theory contains a fatal flaw.

    For RGHE to perform as advertised requires the earth’s surface to radiate upwelling LWIR as an ideal black body, i.e. at 16 C, 289 K, 396 W/m^2. (TFK_bams09)

    The contiguous presence of atmospheric molecules participating in non-radiative heat transfers through conduction, convection, latent renders impossible such BB LWIR, the effective surface emissivity being 0.16, i.e. actual 63 W/m^2 / ideal 396 W/m^2.

    The LWIR upwelling 396 W/m^2 does not exist – the GHG energy loop “warming” the surface and atmosphere does not exist – and the global warming and climate changes that are attributed to carbon dioxide do not exist.

    Hey, what can you say? It’s SCIENCE!!! Have any yourself? Bring it!

  24. Gamecock says:

    The unbearable lightness of Brexit.