Hothouse Earth

Posted: August 8, 2018 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, opinion
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The usual climate alarmists were bound to exploit the opportunity of summer heatwaves to push their agenda, but as climate sceptic Robert Walker points out here: ‘The article is mainly about things that could happen centuries to thousands of years into the future. … There are no dates in it, and there is no new fundamental research.’

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Latest crap from the warmist establishment, gleefully blown up by the BBC

Climate change: ‘Hothouse Earth’ risks even if CO2 emissions slashed

It may sound like the title of a low budget sci-fi movie, but for planetary scientists, “Hothouse Earth” is a deadly serious concept.

Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.

Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this “irreversible pathway”.

Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.

An international team of climate researchers, writing in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says the warming expected in the next few decades could turn some of the Earth’s natural forces – that currently protect us – into our enemies.

Each year the Earth’s forests, oceans and land…

View original post 785 more words

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    THIS SILLY SEASON, WHY NOT PANIC ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING?
    Date: 08/08/18 Andrew Montford, The Spectator

    This is the silly season, and there’s none quite as silly as an eco-warrior in the sunshine.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/this-silly-season-why-not-panic-about-global-warming/
    – – –
    Usual BBC climate hype…

    Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/science-environment-45084144

  2. oldbrew says:

    Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.

    Note: ‘could’ and ‘if’.

    Anything ‘could’ happen ‘if’… blah blah. So what?

  3. tom0mason says:

    I’ll repeat here what I said on Paul Homewwod blog

    CAGW advocates and the UN-IPCC do not want you looking at past times, do not want you to learn from documented history.
    A Hothouse World indeed! —

    Of note is that in year 1666 when months of heatwave and drought that affected most of Europe.
    At that time in England, London had lain under an exceptional drought since November 1665, and the wooden buildings were tinder-dry after the long hot summer of 1666. After such an unusually hot and dry spring, temperatures in the summer of 1666 rose 1.5°C above normal (estimated), and a precipitation shortfall of 6 inches turned London’s mostly wooden dwellings into large tinderboxes awaiting a spark. The same conditions prevailed in much of northwestern Europe, giving rise to fires in scores of German cities. However the published diary writing of people like Samuel Pepys and others who survived the conflagration, such as the child Daniel Defoe (he would later write about the plagues and diseases of that time, and a first hand account of the ‘Great Storm’ of 1703), ensured the spectacular destruction of London were well documented, and it’s infamy was not overshadowed other urban fires elsewhere in the world during this time.

    London however was not the only capital city where unusual drought in the mid seventeenth century produced a ‘Great Fire’ —

    Moscow in 1648, after several months without rain, ‘within a few hours more than half the city inside the White Wall, and about half the city outside the wall, went up in flames’.

    Large part of the new Mughal capital Shahjahanabad, aka ‘Old Delhi’, burnt down in 1662.

    Istanbul suffered more, with numerically more devastating fires in the seventeenth century than in any other period of its history: one notable blaze was in 1660 (again after a prolonged drought) when it burned down 280,000 houses and several public buildings.

    Major blazes also regularly devastated Edo, the largest city in Japan, notably the Meireki fire of 1657 – which, like those in Moscow in 1648, Istanbul in 1660 and London in 1666, broke out after an abnormal droughts.

    [Source: wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Fire_of_London and http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/londonfire.htm
    and ‘Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century.’ by Geoffrey Parker.]

    All these happened during the LIA.
    And yes by December 1666, London like much of Europe was in the grip of a very cold winter, with severe frosts and ice over many European rivers including much of London’s Thames.

    So what did the weather in any year tell us about the climate of the 17th century?

  4. oldbrew says:

    So what did the weather in any year tell us about the climate of the 17th century?

    Possibly that low solar activity (few or no sunspots) can lead to greater than usual weather extremes, due at least in part to more erratic jet stream patterns?

  5. craigm350 says:

    What’s a little doomsday cultism and FUD between friends?

    Heaven help us if we ever see a repeat of 1540, if the heat and drought don’t kill us the media barrage certainly will. Because this is exactly what we’d expect with….witches!

    https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/07/07/extreme-weather-megadrought-of-1540-much-worse-than-2003/

    https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/must-watch-dr-baliunas-on-weather-cooking/

  6. tallbloke says:

  7. dennisambler says:

    Scientific publishing from a different perspective…

    https://www.nature.com/news/scientific-publishing-the-inside-track-1.15424

    “Academy membership is one the most prestigious honours for a scientist, and it comes with a tangible perk: members can submit up to four papers per year to the body’s high-profile journal, the venerable Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), through the ‘contributed’ publication track. This unusual process allows authors to choose who will review their paper and how to respond to those reviewers’ comments.”

    http://blog.pnas.org/iforc.pdf
    “Perspectives present a viewpoint on an important area of research. Perspectives focus on a specific field or subfield within a larger discipline and discuss current advances and future directions. Perspectives are of broad interest to nonspecialists and may add personal insight to a field, but should be balanced and objective. [Like the Hothouse Earth paper]

    Perspectives are written only at the invitation of the Editorial Board and evaluated for publication using the same process as Direct Submissions.

    More than 50% of Direct Submissions are declined by the Editorial Board without additional review, within 2 weeks on average. For papers that are sent on to an editor and reviewers, the average time to receive a decision is 41 days. If accepted, authors have their articles published online as soon as 4–5 weeks after acceptance.

    Authors must recommend three appropriate Editorial Board members, three NAS members who are expert in the paper’s scientific area, and five qualified reviewers. The Board may choose someone who is or is not on that list or may reject the paper without further review.

    Authors are encouraged to indicate in their cover letter why their suggested editors are qualified to handle the paper. See the directory of PNAS Member Editors and their research interests. The editor may obtain reviews of the paper from at least two qualified reviewers, each from a different institution and not from the authors’ institutions.

    PNAS will invite the reviewers, secure the reviews, forward them to the editor, and secure any revisions and subsequent reviews. The name of the editor must remain anonymous to the author until the paper is accepted. Direct Submissions are published as “Edited by” the responsible editor and have an identifying footnote.

    Schellnhuber, founder director of Potsdam and Carl Folke from Stockholm Resilience Centre are both NAS members, Schellnhuber since 2005, Folke only since last year.

    http://www.nasonline.org/member-directory/?q=Schellnhuber&site=nas_members
    http://www.nasonline.org/member-directory/?q=Folke&site=nas_members

    Schellnhuber is a member editor: http://nrc88.nas.edu/pnas_search/memberDetails.aspx?ctID=20010112

    As is Carl Folke: http://nrc88.nas.edu/pnas_search/memberDetails.aspx?ctID=20041752

    [I supect not many contrary papers get past this editorial board…]

    The “Hothouse” authors are: Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber.

    There is a good mix of Potsdam and Stockholm Resilience Centre, as one would expect, given that Rockstrom is taking over from Schellnhuber at Potsdam: http://www.stockholmresilience.org/news–events/general-news/2018-02-23-johan-rockstrom-appointed-director-at-potsdam-institute-for-climate-impact-research.html

    For a bit of glamour they brought in Ricarda Winkelman:
    https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/ricardaw/ricarda-winkelmann

  8. oldbrew says:

    “This unusual process allows authors to choose who will review their paper and how to respond to those reviewers’ comments.”

    ‘Unusual’ – well that’s one way of putting it 😎
    – – –
    The Onion: Climate Researchers Warn Only Hope For Humanity Now Lies In Possibility They Are Making All Of This Up

    “The evidence indicates our planet still might stand a chance of averting a complete climate catastrophe as long as my colleagues and I belong to a cabal of charlatans who are secretly paid huge sums of money to trick everyone into believing excess greenhouse gases will precipitate record-breaking natural disasters and worldwide famine. Otherwise, we’re all doomed.”

    https://www.theonion.com/climate-researchers-warn-only-hope-for-humanity-now-lie-1828171232

    H/T Judith Curry
    https://judithcurry.com/2018/08/08/hothouse-earth/

  9. oldbrew says:

    Sunspot Update for July 2018: The Sun Flatlines!

    This might be the most significant month of solar activity that has been observed since Galileo.

    https://nextgrandminimum.com/2018/08/07/sunspot-update-for-july-2018-the-sun-flatlines/

  10. oldbrew says:

    The underestimated cooling effect on the planet from historic fires
    August 9, 2018, University of Leeds

    Historic levels of particles in the atmosphere released from pre-industrial era fires, and their cooling effect on the planet, may have been significantly underestimated according to a new study.
    . . .
    “Our findings show there may be a significant gap between previous estimations and what was actually taking place in the pre-industrial atmosphere. This suggests the high possibility of a much smaller difference in aerosol cooling between pre-industrial and present-day than we have previously thought. The implication is that the cooling effect of additional present-day man-made aerosol pollution may have been overestimated.”

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-underestimated-cooling-effect-planet-historic.html
    – – –
    August 9, 2018
    It was WARMER in Roman and Medieval times
    [The article and paper are from 2012.]

    A study suggests the Britain of 2,000 years ago experienced a lengthy period of hotter summers than today.

    German researchers used data from tree rings – a key indicator of past climate – to claim the world has been on a ‘long-term cooling trend’ for two millennia until the global warming of the twentieth century.

    This cooling was punctuated by a couple of warm spells.

    https://sunshinehours.net/2018/08/09/it-was-warmer-in-roman-and-medieval-times/

  11. oldbrew says:

    Note to Guardian-reading softies…
    Forget Canada, try Scotland – only a short trip from sub-tropical London 😎

    On average across the UK there’s only 15.6 days a year when snow is on the ground, compared to 26.2 days in Scotland.
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/precipitation/snow/snow-in-the-uk

    ‘As panic about climate change sets in’ – really? Not met anyone panicking, must be a media thing 😐

  12. pochas94 says:

    You can say anything, as long as you don’t know anything.

  13. Gamecock says:

    ‘Climate change’ running out of scariness. ‘Hothouse earth’ the new scare – same as the old scare.

  14. tom0mason says:

    A song for the ‘Hothouse Earth’ propagandists —

  15. oldbrew says:

    Fake Climate News from Reuters
    August 10th, 2018 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    Will Google down-rank Reuters for spreading fake climate news?
    . . .
    I have no idea what I said that led the reporter to write: “Spencer said…the presence of Trump administration officials at the conference gave a boost to climate change deniers”. Where did that come from?
    . . .
    If such censorship and search engine down-ranking is implemented, will they do the same for the recent “hothouse Earth” claims, which are little more than speculative sci-fi climate porn, with no new science, and totally ignore the most recent evidence that global warming of the oceans and atmosphere over the last century indicate the climate system is twice as resistant to warming as the IPCC claims?

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/08/fake-climate-news-from-reuters/

  16. oldbrew says:

    Another blow for fake heatwave news pushers…

    In reality, the ONS has confirmed that “fewer deaths were registered [this summer] than during the same weeks of the last two years”. This is particularly impressive given the UK’s ageing and growing population.

    https://order-order.com/2018/08/10/media-alarmists-proved-wrong-heatwave-deaths/

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