Porto Conference: The Basic Science of a Changing Climate

Posted: September 2, 2018 by tallbloke in climate, innovation, Natural Variation, People power, solar system dynamics

porto-sunset_1

The annual climate conference series which started in Paris in 2015 will be continuing on this coming Friday and Saturday in Porto, Portugal. Scientists both professional and amateur will be presenting their work on ‘The Basic Science of a Changing Climate’,and discussing climate change and policy with attendees. The Abstracts volume is available here.

Stuart and I had intended to co-present our work on stellar-planetary system resonance, but owing to his family duties, I’ll be delivering the talk by myself. Through a tortuous set of bookings involving a couple of long coach rides, I’ve managed to work out an affordable travel itinerary. Due to starting the new job with Leave Means Leave, but not getting any pay until the middle of October, I’m in a tight spot. I try to call for help from talkshop readers as infrequently as possible, but right now I need it.

Nearly all of us who have been battling to counter the hype and spin of the mainstream ‘Climate! Crisis!’ narrative over the last decade have been doing so with no grants or support. We carry on because we have to defend the scientific method against databending, bad theory, propaganda and brainwashing in schools, universities, the media and via quangos and NGOs.

We also need to promote  viable alternative hypotheses for climate change, via our blogs, through the few journals which allow dissenting opinion, and at our annual conferences. Science benefits from fair consideration of a plurality of ideas and observations.

If you can help defray expenses, please use the paypal button on the top left of the Talkshop page and I’ll keep up the fight to have our voices heard on your behalf. Thank you for all your support over the years. Let’s keep going until sanity prevails.

Comments
  1. stpaulchuck says:

    I hit the tip jar. It’s not much Rog, but hopefully some of the others will ring the bell for you too.

  2. tallbloke says:

    Many thanks to you. Along with another couple of donations which have arrived today, I now have enough to cover the outbound flight and the coach ride to it.

    Please keep it coming folks. It’s a long walk home.

  3. wolsten says:

    Hi Rog, small donation made, keep up the good work, always appreciated.

  4. Well until the author made it known that he was about to start work with Leave Means Leave I might have though something of the article.

    Not so sure when the person is prepared to vote and support something which has meant two years of upset for 1.2 million Brits in the EU where their,work to create businesses will come to an end with both businesses and home being sold for a pittance of previous worth. Pensions payments in the air because UK banks will not be able to transfer funds or maybe extra costs involved.

    Likewise 3 million EU nationals here in the UK with exactly the same problems.

    Both groups being made to feel not welcome.

    £billions being lost from joint funded projects, Science saying good bye to £500 million already.

    Scaremonger happening, Panasonic and others moving HQ to Holland like others. Rees Moggs set up in Dublin. Redwood advising investor clients to move out and into Euro Like Lord Ashcroft advises his get Malta citizenship.

    Legatum Institute Shepherds/ ERG (Chair Rees Moggs ) moved all their staff from Dubia to Malta

    Doctors and Nurses returning to their home nation in the EU already short NHS paying great amounts for Private US Companies and Virgin to make a profit Yes NHS has been steered to be short of funds.

    So I have to say that judging your comprehension of Brexit and the affects which it is having on people now and there is far more grief coming I do not think that you have any reason to believe that you could be correct with something which I would say is far reaching and with so many inputs and differing factors when you cannot see Brexit in front of you.

    In terms of Climate Disaster:
    If we believe the Climate Scientist and take as much action as possible to stop CO2 and other GHG emissions and they turn out to be wrong, then we end up with cleaner air and less toxic sunbstances to inhail to poison people. Lower costs of peoples ill health etc offsets any extra costs of Clean Energy.

    Now if we believe you and the other climate deniers, most of whom do not have a degree in the science of physics relating to Climate and GHGs and air currents etc We do not take any action and we keep emitting millions of tonnes of CO2 releasing methane and other gasses more efficient in causing Global Warming and You and the other deniers are wrong, then by the time we all know that you were wrong it will be too late to make any changes which might mitigate the outcome

    So for my part I will stick aiming for the safe side, Then we look at who and which groups are funding these groups and find it is the likes of the Koch brothers and other big profit companies who see their Businesses coming under threat. personally I would want them to be responsible for the damage.

    In recent months we can read about some high ups in the US who have suddenly changed when people in Miami realise that their real estate could become worthless due to the rising water level. Two years ago these same people made fun of the Prime Minister of a Pacific Island held a Cabinet meeting in wet suits and sub aqua gear. Also that he was buying land in New Zealand for all the population to move.

    It is happening, if those involved in this as work and don’t tell ne that they have been bribed or what, there is NO way that it could be kept secret, just look at the Governments around the world Secrets last a few hours or a few days at max.

  5. tallbloke says:

    I think this comment from ‘The Hydrogen Answer’ exemplifies very well the reason why The fight for democratic acountability, accurate reporting and scientific honesty is so important.

  6. nickreality65 says:

    For the Radiative Green House Effect to function as advertised, i.e. warming the surface of the earth by 33 C, that surface must radiate as an ideal black body.

    But non-radiative heat transfer processes, i.e. conduction, convection, advection, latent/evaporation/condensation, of the contiguous atmospheric molecules render such ideal BB emission impossible.

    Trenberth says the ocean’s emissivity is 0.97. The turbulent non-radiative heat transfer processes are responsible for most of the heat movement from ocean to air and LWIR emissivity is more like 0.16.

    Without the ideal 396 W/m^2 upwelling BB radiation the 333 W/m^2 up/down/”back” GHG LWIR energy loop does not exist (TFK_bams09)

    and carbon dioxide does no warming

    and mankind does no climate changing.

    Got science? Well, BRING IT!!

  7. dai davies says:

    The Hydrogen Answer
    I have a PhD and several years experience, practical and theoretical, in gas-phase molecular spectroscopy. I am quite capable of understanding the radiative dynamics of the atmosphere and have spent several years specifically studying that.

    Are you aware that the magnitude of the GHE was, from the start, an unquantified assumption? Originally I saw no alternative effect and went long with that. Now there is a quantified alternative that many people have verified as strong enough to provide Earth’s current surface temperature without GHE.

    Recently I managed to quantify the GHE and found it to be 0.14C or 1/200th of the assumed value.

    See: http://brindabella.id.au/ftp/RadiativeDelayInContext180818.pdf

    I don’t agree with Roger on every aspect of the climate issue, but am happy to chip in for this trip.

    As an Australian I haven’t previously commented on BREXIT, but my father and grandfather were involved in two wars to save us from totalitarianism. Their generations made great sacrifices that make the ones you list seem quite petty – even if they were real. Wasn’t Britain meant to already be an economic basket case according to remainer propaganda?

    I’m not aware that Australians have much problem with being outside the EU. We’re part of a bigger world. Here in Oz we have, as Brits do, a similar problem with the UN trying to set up its totalitarian globalist agenda and global carbon taxation system. Public opinion is turning against UN dictates.

    dai

  8. Graeme No.3 says:

    The Hydrogen Answer:

    However did you survive the Y2K disaster?

  9. Richard111 says:

    Thank you Dai Davies for your paper. Only had a quick look so far. I wonder about CO2 absorption of sunlight at 2.7 and 4.3 micrometers (μM). With my limited understanding of the subject this looks to me like CO2 acts as a coolant when the sun is shining.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Dai, thanks very much for helping out. My Grandfather fought in both world wars. He took a bullet through the shoulder in the first. He didn’t discuss politics with us kids, but I can imagine what he’d think of the Germany dominated EU and the “chinless wonders” running Westminster. He taught me to box.

  11. dai davies says:

    Keep punching, mate.

  12. oldbrew says:

    Leaders going to the wrong climate conference…

    Can crunch talks bring the Paris climate treaty to life?
    September 2, 2018

    Lamenting “uneven progress” to date, co-chairs of UN talks last month urged rank-and-file negotiators to produce “clear and streamlined options” that ministers and heads of state can push across the finish line at the December UN climate summit in Poland.

    “If Parties do not achieve this in Bangkok, a satisfactory outcome in Katowice will be in jeopardy,” they wrote in the unusual appeal.

    The most persistent sticking points in the UN talks revolve around money.

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-09-crunch-paris-climate-treaty-life.html

  13. tallbloke says:

    The most persistent sticking points in the UN talks revolve around money.

    Well naturally. You wouldn’t expect them to discuss science would you?

    My own personal sticking point around money is well on its way to being resolved. Many thanks again to all who have chipped in so far to enable me to go and present our science at the Porto conference.

  14. oldbrew says:

    An even more daunting—and arguably urgent—task facing diplomats in Bangkok and Katowice is ratcheting up voluntary national commitments to cut planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-09-crunch-paris-climate-treaty-life.html

    🤣🤣🤣

  15. Bitter@twisted says:

    My father fought the Nazis for all 6 years.
    He is still around and voted Leave.
    He told me that Germany had tried to dominate Europe, by force of arms, twice in the 20th. Century.
    Now they have almost achieved, via the EU, what they couldn’t by war.

  16. Gamecock says:

    The Hydrogen Answer (sic)

    What was the question?

  17. oldbrew says:

    Weather becomes climate when it does what they wanted it to…

    Heatwave: 2018 was the joint hottest summer for UK

    2018 was the joint hottest summer on record for the UK as a whole, and the hottest ever for England, the Met Office has announced.

    It said highs for summer 2018 were tied with those of 1976, 2003 and 2006 for being the highest since records began in 1910.

    England’s average temperatures narrowly beat those seen in 1976, they added.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45399134

    Good to know we’re occasionally keeping pace with 1976 – a mere 42 years ago 😐
    – – –
    Meanwhile on the wrong side of the jet stream divide, Iceland had its worst early summer on record…

    June saw less sunshine than any year since reliable monitoring began by the Icelandic Meteorological Office, more than 100 years ago. May also set a record for the wettest May on record. Unfortunately there is nothing to suggest July will be much better

    http://icelandmag.is/article/so-far-summer-2018-worst-record-reykjavik

  18. stpaulchuck says:

    oldbrew,
    “summer” in the Twin Cities and Upper Midwest has been a total bust. We’ve had at most a couple weeks total since June of ‘summer’ weather. Right now it’s 64 degrees when it should be 10 to 15 degrees warmer. We’ve had so much rain (hi there to all you ‘drought victims’) that the weeds have literally gone out of control. I’ve been thinking of tying the fishing boat to the front porch, just in case. We’ve got several river flood warnings and a lot of towns already under water.

    In the meantime, idiots in the LSM are running around screaming about some hot weather in a couple places on the planet. As always they say, “since records began,” which usually means at most a couple hundred years. Seriously?? How about the million years or so before that? Or back to the last one or two interglacials?

    I suppose they can’t help being idiots but they could at least do some small amount of research. But then, that wouldn’t bring in the slack-jawed viewers sagely nodding their heads and memorizing the latest sound bites. [/rant – *grin*]

  19. Stephen Richards says:

    The Hydrogen Answer (@thehydrogenans) says:
    September 2, 2018 at 4:24 pm

    People like you are a menace. Roger has a house in france and I’ve lived there for a long time. one of us voted out and one of us would have voted out if he had a vote. Nobody is in misery. I saw is a huge opportunity to break free from this bureaucratic dictatorship which is destroying Europe through it’s corruption and ineptitude.
    You clearly have ZERO knowledge of how the EU works or your critical thinking processes have failed.
    I’ve seen first hand the destruction of my beloved france. I was a town councillor for 5 years and tried to keep the town informed of EU proposals that were coming. No one believed me, mainly because of whinging sirens like you.

    Sometime after I stepped down the maire wrote an open letter in our town information newsletter, incidently something I brought in and wrote for 5 years, apologising for his error in not understanding what the EU would do to destroy our culture, heritage, financial and border security.

    There are too many uninformed people like you with no knowledge, no ability to find and analyse information for themselves.

    I have always been confident on two counts/

    I will still be in france after Brexit with continuing health and ready access to the UK

    Global warming is the biggest scam in human history.

    Like other commenters here i’m a retired scientist.

  20. Steve Richards says:

    Following on from Stephen Richards comments (from the other Steven Richards, who, unfortunately is stuck in the UK!!).

    Perhaps it is a love of authority?

    People who spout about the 97% or say they can’t all be wrong, or it can’t be a conspiracy etc.

    It is one thing to have a view (wrong in my view) but when challenged, refuse or just can’t be bothered to look anything up to see why people who disagree with you say what they do.

    We need to find the correct sequence of words that when uttered will de programme people like this and they have the Ahhhh! moment.

  21. oldbrew says:

    The Porto conference website now contains this…

    Open Letter to the Rector of the University of Porto

    The University of Porto must scrutinize the events it organizes and promote knowledge based on in Science.

    As announced on the website of the University of Porto and reported in the press, September 7 and 8 at the Faculty of Arts of entitled “Basic science of a changing climate: how processes in the sun, atmosphere and ocean affect weather and climate “.

    Under the cover of this interesting title that suggests a scientific field recognized, this conference is ultimately organized by a well-known climate change, the so-called “Independent Committee on Geoethics”, and will gather Denialists from various countries, and is presided over by Maria Assunção Araújo, of that faculty. In her own words for the press Maria Assunção Araújo is explicit: “I do not care to listen to people that considers that the only cause of climate change is CO2.”

    The term ‘climate change’ now has different meanings… [continues]

    https://www.portoconference2018.org/news.html
    – – –
    The climate alarm religion in Portugal has had its nose put out of joint it seems.

  22. oldbrew says:

    Despite the sourpusses (above)…

  23. Conor McMenemie says:

    The Rector of the University and Professor Maria de Araújo, the event organiser may face very real career assignation in the near future and it is important for us to think of a means to ensure they do not fall victim to the machinations of the emissions franchise. I will be sending her a link to the YouTube presentation of my NiCE View anthropogenic GW and CC NiCE research, as proof that they were adhering to the principles of honest and open intellectual freedom. But they will need all the help they can get.

  24. Conor McMenemie says:

    Food for thought….. All sceptics stop paying the TV licence due to the beebs stance on reporting GW and CC. Make every effort to have the case heard in a civil court. Thus evidence can be seen in the clear light of day.

  25. Claus-Uwe Rieth says:

    By Claus-Uwe Rieth, Mulhouse / FR

    A summary on the “Basic Science of a Changing Climate”

    Global Green Airbag versus Global Greenhouse

    The Porto Climate Conference – It’s all natural

    Basic Science of a Changing Climate – the topic of the Conference that took place at Porto University in Porto, Portugal on Sept. 07. – 09. 2018. Attended by leading scientists in many domains, experts of engineering and critical thinkers of meteorology, oceanography, mathematics, geophysics, geology, chemistry and geography they confronted a very competent audience of about 80 people all over the globe from New Zealand, Australia, Canada, US, GB, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, Portugal. The primary focus of the conference was on basic climate science, nevertheless along the proceeding of the topics questions of communication to the public audience arose.
    Opened by the Rector of Porto University there was a broad consensus that freedom of research is the absolute necessary basis for the progress of science. The speeches and discussions concentrated on four aspects: 1. Changes in Climate and Weather 2. CO2, Climate Sensitivity and Greenhouse Effects 3. Forcing Functions in Climate Change 4. Observational Facts, Interpretations and Geoethics. Nils Alex Mörner, former head of Paleophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University moderated the course of the conference that was hosted by the Faculty of Letters and represented by Maria Assunçao Araùjo of the Department of Geography and member of the Portuguese Sea Level Project together with Pamela Mattlock-Klein. Eventually some demonstrators turned up to protest against this conference without even trying to talk to the audience.

    Drivers and fare dodgers

    Unanimously all the assembled scientist put the human-emitted CO2 on the back seat of the climate-mobile. NO one supported in any way the “hysteria” in media and politics to reduce this assumed “threat” propelled by IPCC political papers and lobbies behind dominant media releases. Considering the quantity of water vapor in atmosphere which is the most dominant “greenhouse” player on earth with about 20% of the present gases, CO2 – representing roughly only 7% – is 94% of natural origin and only 6% out of anthropogenic (Veyre) – “anthropo(n)” meaning “human” and “genic” meaning origin. Consumption of fossil energy and other consumptions contribute only 18 ppm (parts per million) of 410 ppm of all CO2 in the atmosphere (from sea level up to 24000 feet) or 1 out of 2500 particles of the atmosphere! The main driver of atmospheric gases is water vapor, and CO2 of human consumption is negligible, thus the consensus (Gervais, Harde). Same observations and conclusions for the already passed so-called “greenhouse gases” like ozone and FCKW.

    Global Green Airbag

    Compared to Venus and Saturn the Earth luckily developed a so-to-say “airbag” or “Global green belt” as security features for our life. Water vapor and CO2 have minimum three very beneficial properties: they protect the earth from cooling – otherwise temperatures on earth would drop to a unlivable around minus 20 degrees Celsius. They act as a thermal cushion. Second, they protect our life and that of the plants and animals from solar and cosmic over-radiation like polaroid sunglasses. Third, they assure proper growing of all the green plant life on earth. Without CO2 no photosynthesis, no growth of plants below 150 ppm (Veyre, Gervais, Harde)! Global greening progressed thanks to CO2 – more growing of veggies and fruit and cereals and algae for an ever-growing population on earth that will soon arrive at
    10 billion people. Without this Global Green Belt there will soon be more hunger and more starving instead.

    Thanks to the Oceans

    Oceans not only define the face of the earth from outer space as “blue planet”, as all astronauts observe full of emotions. Oceans are the heat tank with an enormous capacity – 2,7m water below surface contains the same energy as the air column of 8000m over it. Oceans produce 50% of the oxygen by the algae they contain, as an ad in the streets of Porto tells. And Oceans absorb 70% of the CO2 and stock it, transport it into the deep blue and there it is transformed into Calciumcarbonate and other carbonates and sinks to the ground as sediments. CO2 is also stocked in the waters as gas. Oceans contain 50 times the quantity of all naturally and in minor quantity humanly emitted CO2. Their role is still very much underestimated as there are only few measuring points and the quantity of them is tiniest compared to the surface of the oceans. Deep cold water-currents move slowly from the north to the south pole. This thermo-haline (“thermo” means “dependent on temperature, “haline” from “hals (gr.)” for salt (concentration) circulation takes about 140 years (!) and is one of the major drivers of climate besides water vapor and the sun (Mörner, Corbyn). The Ocean blues goes on – slowly and surely as its musical sister.

    Moon, Sun and Stars

    Everybody knows the tides controlled by the moon. At least also all main-landers that passed vacations at the coast of the ocean. Water level changes by influence of the gravity of the mass of the moon, more precisely said. But in space there is also the sun and the planets and their moons and the far-away stars. Mass effects add to another like the more people are in a bus the longer the distance to accelerate or to slow it down. Like this also the planets: if they are all in a line this makes the earth bump and slow or accelerate. (Tattersall, Zeller) Same the sun: the more energy it sends by magnetic and light radiation, and energy is mass by speed to the square as Einstein told us the more the rotation of the earth speeds up. And like in a merry-go-round the seats fly higher and more distant to the center with more speed – water rises at the equator the faster the planet turns. Follows the effect that as the amount of water is fix in the oceans the sea level is rising in the equatorial zone and decreasing in the higher latitudes. And the same when solar activity is low then sea levels rise in northern and southern high latitudes near the poles and water level decreases in a medium range of time in the equatorial zone. (Wysmuller, Mörner, Corbyn, Assunçao) Sea-level change comes and goes like the tide.

    Suntan desperately needed

    Like anybody is getting cold at night when sun is down and sky is clear – the same the earth. Without the sun radiation earth would freeze down to the temperature of Mars, nobody would like to live there. As the earth is a net-receiver it depends on the sun as net-donor. When sun gives much, earth is getting warmer than usual – a warm period, when sun is avaricious, earth temperature goes down and we can do ice-scating on rivers and lakes like in the 15th century in London, Amsterdam and Rome! This was the last little ice age. (Solheim, Yndestadt, Scafetta). The sun radiation is the prior clock of the climate, the highs and lows of the radiation – observed also by the number and length of the sunspot-number per
    period) makes the difference of our terrestrial sages. The sun activity is the main direct climate driver – the Mayas and Incas knew well!

    Complexity, Chaos and Climate

    In 16th century people burnt witches as a drought devastated Europe and emptied wells and Lakes like the Lake of Constance -as reported from Wittenberg 1540 where Martin Luther probably assisted. People do not like weather chaos, climate chaos, they want it orderly and cyclically like everything else. And if it comes worse, they want to “do” something instead of waiting for heaven or hell. Either someone has to “pay” or “confess” or “burn”. And people like it simple and hate complicated matters, in politics as in a lot of other dimensions like education, alimentation, relationships, work and fun. Nobody likes fatality today without a chance to turn it around, be it cancer or Parkinson. (Rieth) This is the time for “healers” and “quacks” and gurus. Climate is a complex affair – like a love affair sometimes – and we like it simple. We seek simple recipes for tricky matters. Who falls in love for maths and quants? And nonetheless this is the only way to tell the real story (Essex, Gervais, Rittaud, Monckton). Simple suggestions like take this and avoid this – like methane and CO2, avoid to eat meat and go vegan(so opposed to by Glatzle), stop inhaling, pay compensation for flying to Bali, confess your energy consumption, … is like a part of the simple messages of some guru-trip with the buddy driving a Rolls and people worshipping like mad for “his Highness”.

    Porto Conference was about that – finding a sober and evidence-based message for a complex climate issue. Honest scientific research meeting blunt degradation in a time where middle-age thought-climate seems to regain power on enlightenment driven research. Gut versus head, fear versus sovereignty, panic versus coolness. The message of the second Porto Climate Conference – after the Obama decorated in June – is: Keep cool, no fear. Climate is fine, no need to save it and no means to do it either. Maybe it’s even getting cooler, the history of the sun-cycles may tell it. Enjoy life in the Global Green Airbag!

    Claus U. Rieth
    MBA, M.Div., phil.bot.
    Director CRConsult, Rev.
    Mulhouse France