Hurricane Florence: climate dynamics context

Posted: September 19, 2018 by oldbrew in Analysis, Natural Variation, weather, wind

A sort of post-mortem look at various issues surrounding Hurricane Florence. If pressed for time, ‘the take home point is that convincingly attributing any of this to human caused global warming is very challenging’ – see the summary.

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

“Impending massive hurricanes bring the best out of weather twitter and the worst out of climate twitter” – Joseph Maykut

View original post 2,418 more words

  1. ren says:

    Florence was created as a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic. The cool surface of the ocean did not allow the hurricane to develop. The jet stream initially directed it north, then west. When she found herself in the hot waters of the west Atlantic, she developed into a hurricane.

  2. ren says:

    Activity of Atlantic increased as a result of increased solar wind activity (geomagnetic storms).

  3. ren says:

    Surface temperature of the North Atlantic.

  4. ren says:

    Eastern tropical Atlantic is very cold due to the falling jet stream.

    The temperature increased at the beginning of September, after the increase in geomagnetic activity. As a result, the jet stream in the north accelerated.

  5. ren says:

    It’s worth seeing how volatile the upper winds are in the tropical Atlantic.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Judith Curry’s Summary:

    I’ve scratched the surface of the complex issues surrounding the weather and climate dynamics of Florence, but the take home point is that convincingly attributing any of this to human caused global warming is very challenging, and the strategies used by the mainstream climate community to do this (#2, #3) are woefully inadequate and misleading to scientists, the public and policy makers.
    – – –
    woefully inadequate and misleading :/

    JC also argues:
    What of the claims that the warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic contributed to the heavy rainfall? Well the Atlantic surface temperatures weren’t particularly warm in the main development region of the North Atlantic where Florence spun up its intensity. The warm Atlantic temperatures were further north and didn’t particularly influence Florence’s intensity.

    Another dud for alarmists.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Hurricane Florence Intensified Fast. We Still Don’t Understand Why Some Storms Fizzle And Others Erupt

    Atlantic hurricanes originate over land in Africa as systems called Easterly Waves. After these baby storms move from east to west across the African continent, they begin their coming-of-age quest across the Atlantic.

    Not all of them make it.

    “It’s actually one of the biggest mysteries of atmospheric sciences,” says Rosimar Ríos-Berríos, a researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “Every year we have many, many of these systems coming off Africa, and only a few of them become hurricanes.”
    – – –
    ren says: September 19, 2018 at 9:19 pm
    Activity of Atlantic increased as a result of increased solar wind activity (geomagnetic storms).

  8. ren says:

    Temperature differences in the northern and central Atlantic will cause hurricane winds in Europe.

  9. oldmanK says:

    We are in the century leading to the peak of the Eddy cycle. The connection of that to ‘climate disturbances’ was made in JC blog

    While that site linked the Eddy cycle to the last 2kyrs I was surprised to see the same link in earlier millennia (link: ).

    Don’t know how to put it correctly, but I think those early coincidences truly washed humanity out of the picture (see Searching Evidence – 4).

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