Now at least 10 years with sea ice at 2050-like levels yet polar bears are still abundant

Posted: September 28, 2018 by oldbrew in alarmism, Analysis, Critique, predictions, sea ice
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With about the same minimum Arctic sea ice extent this season as 2008 and 2010, persistent claims of ‘rapid decline’ are looking more than threadbare, and polar bears don’t seem too bothered either, judging by the numbers. Climate scare merchants may have to look elsewhere to try and generate a headline.


We’ve hit the seasonal Arctic sea ice minimum for this year, called this morning by US NSIDC for 19th and 23rd of Septmeber: 4.59 mkm2, the same extent as 2008 and 2010. This is not a “ho-hum” year for polar bears: it means that since 2007, they have triumphed through 10 or 11 years1 with summer ice coverage below 5.0 mkm2 —  levels that in 2007were expected to cause catastrophic declines in numbers.


Summer sea ice below 5.0 mkm2 were not expected to occur until about 2050, according to 2005/2006 sea ice models and polar bear specialists at the US Geological Survey (USGS). Polar bear survival models predicted 2/3 of the world’s polar bears would disappear when ice levels reached this threshold for 8 out of 10 years (Amstrup et al. 2007, 2008; Hunter 2007) but polar bears have been more resilientthan expected (Crockford 2017, 2018; Crockford…

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  1. oldbrew says:

    Funny how Arctic sea ice minima have stabilized in the last 10 years or so, just as solar activity has dropped away after the highs of the late 20th century.

    the same minimum Arctic sea ice extent this season as 2008 and 2010 – see below…

    – – –
    Satellite data for Arctic sea ice only goes back to 1979…