Visualization of Pacific ocean temperatures shows El Niño brewing

Posted: October 13, 2018 by oldbrew in ENSO, Forecasting, News, Ocean dynamics
Tags:

Ocean currents
[image credit: SPL/BBC]


The latest NOAA synopsis says: ‘Overall, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral, but with recent trends indicative of a developing El Niño.’ Sounds like a ‘definite maybe’ there, with models now forecasting a relatively weak El Niño.

Warming waters in the equatorial Pacific give increasing confidence that El Niño will be here soon, says Discover magazine.

It’s still not here yet, but El Niño sure looks like it’s coming.

In its latest forecast, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 to 75 percent chance that El Niño will form “in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.”

If the forecast turns out to be correct, the El Niño could influence weather around the world.

El Niño is typically associated with an extended Pacific jet stream and amplified storm track, boosting the odds of wetter than average conditions across the southern tier of U.S. states.

Should things play out this way (and they may not!), it could bring at least some relief for parts of the drought-stricken Southwest.

Continued here [includes visualizations].

Comments
  1. ren says:

    Invest in anchovies!

    Currently the pressure over Tahiti are increased.
    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
    El Nino, come!

  2. ren says:

    Pacific equatorial current is cool. You can see that some people desperately need El Niño.

  3. oldbrew says:

    ren says: Invest in anchovies!

    Attention! We have to point out this person is probably not a genuine financial adviser 😉

  4. ren says:

    Oldbrew, I think there will also be a lot of cod in the Atlantic.

  5. ren says:

    “Sea conditions are optimal and good reproduction has already started on the acoustic cruise that will end at the end of October,” said Humberto Speziani, IFFO board member and former president of IFFO and of the Peruvian National Fisheries Society (SNP).
    Although the evaluation hasn’t yet been completed, it seems that biomass in the water is abundant, which could lead to a quota of 2 million-2.5m metric tons, according to sources. Despite rumors that the quota could be as high as 2.5m metric tons, 2m-2.2m metric tons is more in line with the historical average, one source pointed out.
    https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2018/10/12/fishmeal-industry-optimistic-on-upcoming-peruvian-anchovy-season/

  6. Brett Keane says:

    The last two Nino predictions have been fizzers and this one will be a good test of the Quiet Sun hypothesis now working itself out empirically. Sufficient higher frequency sunlight is needed to provide Nino’s fuel – warmer water inthe tropical sense. The fishery off Peru is needed to tank for Nino to be happening. Brett

  7. People might be interested in my latest post at astroclimateconnection.blogpost.com:

    https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2018/10/a-case-of-severe-cognitive-dissonance.html

    My prediction is for an El Nino starting sometime around July 2019, followed by a La Nina in 2021.

    I realize that I am sticking my neck out here, but someone has to step forward.

  8. oldbrew says:

    Re: astroclimateconnection says:
    October 14, 2018 at 4:30 am
    – – –
    7 lunar apsidal cycles = 766 synodic months = 22620.43 days = 61.93269 tropical years
    55 full moon cycles = 22648.143 days = 62.00856 tropical years

    The difference is 27.71~ days or just over one tropical month.

  9. ren, BOM predicted in the last week of September that SE Qld would be drier and warmer in October and their chart showed a prediction of a 20% prob. of average or above average rain (ie going by the tail of prob. distribution curve 80% less than average with a peak of around 60mm.. Well to 9 AM 14th Oct most places in SE Qld have more than double the average At my place we have had 252mm or 250% of average and it has been raining buckets today. In addition it has been colder than normal and some place had hail covering like a snowfield. So much for BOM prediction model, They can not even predict one week out, How can they predict one year or more out?
    My look at SOI puts it in a neutral state. More rain in Qld is normally associated with a La Nina not an El Nino. Since 2012 we have had less than annual average rain and Qld & NSW have been in drought. It appears the rain this month is drought breaking rain so your prediction of more rain maybe correct.

  10. ren says:

    cementafriend
    High pressure over Tahiti.
    Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa)
    14 Oct 2018 1017.61 1010.50
    13 Oct 2018 1017.48 1010.85
    12 Oct 2018 1015.70 1011.35
    11 Oct 2018 1014.51 1011.40
    Look at the huge high above New Zealand.
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=ausf&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

  11. oldbrew says:

    The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

    The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/soi/

  12. Oldbrew,the best place for SOI is here https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
    I do not trust NOAA or BOM. I am recording the Darwin and Tahiti pressures every day and making my own calculations and comparing daily and 30 day SOI figures.
    I have found there is some connection to the Darwin tide figures to the pressure at least the monthly cycles. Have not yet looked at Tahiti tides. This says some interesting things about tides in Tahiti http://tahitiexpeditions.typepad.com/travelblog/2010/07/tides-in-tahiti.html

  13. ren says:

    Visible high (high insolation) south of the equator.

    The wind is in an eastward direction.

  14. ren says:

    Sorry, of course, towards the west.

  15. ren says:

    You can see that the wind in the South Pacific does not react to changes in surface temperature.

  16. pochas94 says:

    I take anything the NOAA fudgemeisters say with a grain of salt.

  17. pochas94 says:

    And Ninderthana, keep up your work. You’re the only one I know of who may have a handle on ENSO theory.

  18. oldbrew says:

    Pukite has a new post about the MJO and ENSO.
    http://contextearth.com/2018/10/15/mjo/

  19. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    It looks like the SOI index will be above +5.0 for the next week at least which is not favorable for El Nino.

  20. Salvatore, the present SOI figures appear to be similar to Dec 17 graph here https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/monthly-graphs/. However, I suggest it is too early to make a judgement. As it says on the Longpaddock site daily figures do not say much one needs to look at 30 and 90 day averages.
    By the way I would now say the drought has broken. At my place we have had close to 340mm for the month; it rained today and more rain is forecast. If we get another 100mm we will break the all time (125yr) record set in 1972 when there were concerns about global cooling. It has been raining also in central Qld and northern NSW. The monsoon weather which affects Darwin and across the topical WA, NT and Qld has not yet started.

  21. ren says:

    Meanwhile, fell the Niño 1 + 2 index.

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