Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field

Posted: October 20, 2018 by oldbrew in predictions, solar system dynamics
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Interesting solar predictions from Professor Zharkova.

The Next Grand Minimum

Presentation by Professor Valentina Zharkova

When: Wednesday 31st October, from 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Where: 55 Tufton Street, Westminster, SW1P 3QL

Principal component analysis (PCA) of the solar background magnetic field observed from the Earth, revealed four pairs of dynamo waves, the pair with the highest eigen values are called principal components (PCs).

PCs are shown to be produced by magnetic dipoles in inner and outer layers of the Sun, while the second pair of waves is assumed produced by quadruple magnetic sources and so on. The PC waves produced by a magnetic dipole and their summary curve were described analytically and shown to be closely related to the average sunspot number index used for description of solar activity. Based on this correlation, the summary curve was used for the prediction of long-term solar activity on a millennial timescale.This prediction revealed the presence of a grand cycle of…

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Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    This prediction revealed the presence of a grand cycle of 350-400 years

    That would sit somewhere between 2 Uranus-Neptune conjunctions (~343 years) and 2 de Vries cycles (~417 years).

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/04/17/why-phi-jupiter-saturn-and-the-de-vries-cycle/
    – – –
    This approach also predicts the modern grand minimum upcoming in 2020-2055.

    Nearly there. Interesting times ahead.

  2. oldbrew says:

    Friday, October 19, 2018
    The Millennial Turning Point – Solar Activity and the Coming Cooling
    E-Mails to GWPF and PROFESSOR ZHARKOVA
    Dr Norman Page – Houston

    Benny Peiser/ Dr Zharkova

    Zharkova et al 2015 DOI:10.10381/srep15683 says ” Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350-400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale. ” This is entirely consistent with my approach and forecasts. I would question, however,the statement in Benny’s Invitation ” The last super-grand minimum occurred during Maunder Minimum with magnetic field growing for 500 years (until ~2150) and decreasing for another 500 years.” I think the empirical temperature data is clear. The previous millennial cycle peak was at about 990. The recent temperature Millennial Turning Point was about 2003/4 which correlates with the solar millennial activity peak at 1991+/-. The cycle is asymmetric with a 650 year +/- down-leg and a 350 +/- year up-leg. The suns magnetic field will generally decline (modulated by other shorter term superimposed solar activity cycles) until about 2650.

    Read more here: http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-millennial-turning-point-solar.html

    One of Dr Page’s predictions:
    Since Oct 2015 sea level has risen at a rate of only 8.3 cms/century. It will likely begin to fall within the next 4 or 5 years.

    Another one:
    The coming cooling: Usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers
    Norman J Page, First Published February 10, 2017 Research Article

    If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.

    https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X16686488

  3. stpaulchuck says:

    “as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.”

    yeah… not so much. The whole AGW/Satanic Gases scam is not the issue. The issue is NEVER the issue. This is now and always has been about MONEY. I therefore predict that the IPCC and their political cousins in countries of the West will continue to beat this dead horse for decades yet even as we freeze our buns off.

  4. oldmanK says:

    Those are all dates that fall near peaks and troughs of the Eddy cycle. The next is 2100. moreover the Eddy cycle can be followed way back to the 8k2 BP event without ‘missing a beat’ in terms of events.

    More like a single main driver than possibly several independent events. A very clear trail.

  5. J Martin says:

    Mention is made of a strengthening magnetic field till 2150, but I was under the impression that the magnetic held was weakening at present, or is that just planet earth.

  6. J Martin says:

    I don’t suppose there is a sunspot prediction in the presentation is there ?

  7. oldbrew says:

    JM – prediction for what…the next solar cycle max?

  8. J Martin says:

    Yes , max sunspots. Svalgaard reckons a smidge more than SC 24, Talk shop, reckons much lower as does Whaheed Udin.

    The question is, what size solar cycle is enough to maintain temperatures, above cause a rise in temps, below causes a drop in temps. If SC 24 is about right to maintain temps then to dampen down the ever irritating climate change barrage of nonsense we need to see a further reduction in solar activity.

    Presentation is on Halloween when I have to be at home to hand out sweets. Not that I’d have fancied going in and out of London at that time of day.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Solar cycle length could also play a part. Several shorter than average solar cycles occurred in the 20th Century, which have to be balanced by longer ones sooner or later, probably sooner – like SC 23.

  10. sunspotlover says:

    Everybody will be surprised in a few weeks time because the sunspot activity will go up, instead of declining. Reason: The absolute strength of the polar fields is rising:

    http://gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers/View/7491

  11. oldmanK says:

    Professor Zharkova has an interesting video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wB46mgJrzI

    Started watching out of curiosity, the section 15:00 to 16:00 is very interesting. Referring to an era 3000 year back, that stretch was relatively quiet when compared to the earlier 3000. As she says, humanity survived the last 3k, but the earlier 3k were a very different story.

    I hope the presentation will somehow come on a video too. From what I heard in the above video she may be on to something important.

  12. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    This solar minimum has a long way to go. At least until year 2020.

  13. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    There are currently 12,000 astronomers. Most of whom put the start of solar cycle 25 as late 2019-2020 and even in 2021. However, almost all were completely wrong because it already happened in March-April, 2018. Some solar cycles ramp up fast. In case of cycle 25 we expect extreme activity before the end of 2019. We know this because we found the complete sunspot theory…

    What a bunch of BS!

  14. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    A discussion I had recently.

    First she could very well be correct. One thing I am pretty much sure of is solar went from an active phase to an inactive phase in year 2005 and this inactive phase has decades to go.

    The question of importance is not when solar cycle 25 starts but when does the solar flux rise above 100 again on average? I say no earlier then 2022.

    If her solar forecast is correct we our at the start of very long cold period. Already the trend has been down for the past few years. I have more to say below.

    It is a shame how much energy fake AGW theory has taken away from real discussions about climate change. A waste since CO2 has ZERO to do with the climate.

    Which magnetic fields influence the climate?? The solar/geo magnetic fields. Why? Because they moderate UV light/Near UV light which effects global surface oceanic temperatures, they moderate galactic cosmic rays which moderate global cloud /snow coverage and major volcanic activity, the magnetic fields also moderate EUV light which in turn effects the atmospheric circulation patterns and cloud and snow coverage.

    I assert the solar and geo magnetic fields DO determine the climate. The reason it is not apparent is because most of the time the duration and degree of magnitude change of the fields is to small and many times they do not move in sync. This time however they are both weakening rather dramatically and moving in sync so the chances of more apparent climatic effects is on the rise.

    Bob your assertion that it is just TSI is entirely wrong. TSI varies inversely within itself meaning the whole TSI spectrum does not EVEN move in unison with a weakening or strengthening sun. The sum change being so small that TSI alone can not impact the climate to any significant degree which you keep saying. Yes TSI has maybe a .2c effect upon the climate at most. Any additional climatic changes go well beyond TSI itself.

    As far as supporting data the Dalton and Maunder solar minimums supply some supporting evidence but the geo magnetic field back then was stronger then it is now and the compounding effect was less then what it will be now.

    I say the missing part of the puzzle is the geo magnetic field strength and orientation meaning the location of the magnetic poles which will direct galactic cosmic rays to certain latitudes where by they would be much more effective in cloud creation and lower latitude major volcanic activity.
    I say how fast the geo magnetic field weakens going forward is going to be a big factor in what happens to the climate. How weak does that have to become ? I would say at levels it has achieved in the past that took the field to the point of approaching a geo magnetic excursion. It is probably above the levels that would be associated with magnetic field excursions.

  15. J Martin says:

    The end of a solar cycle and the beginning of the next overlap for a period up to a few years. So the end of one and the beginning of the next are at the point where they crossover, I don’t know if that point has been reached yet. No doubt we’ll see it in a Leif Svalgaard’s graph before long.

  16. oldbrew says:

    There’s a clear peak in 2003 here, not approached since.
    In that year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave

    NB 2018 is a bit higher now, but still low. Note the elevated rate of severe and extreme storms from 1998-2005.

    The 2003 European heat wave led to the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540. – Wikipedia

  17. oldmanK says:

    To add to my above post, Professor Zharkova in the above mentioned video, at 09:30, refers to a changing characteristic of the sun, every 400 years. I suspect that that is the same near millennial cycle, or the Eddy cycle, that shows up in archaeology as large event marker in prehistory, from 6k to 2k and in a milder form, in the last 2k years.

  18. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    I hope we will have access to Professor Zharkova’s talk.

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