Climate predictions could be wrong in UK and Europe 

Posted: October 20, 2018 by oldbrew in climate, modelling, predictions
Tags: ,

Topographic map of Greenland


Such predictions are usually wrong anyway, the real question being the degree of ‘wrong-ness’ compared to the actual data. The expected (by climate models) linear progression of global temperatures has fizzled out – inasmuch as it ever existed – since the ‘pause’, apart from a recent El Niño blip. Solar cycle activity is also declining compared to other recent cycles..

Current climate change predictions in the UK and parts of Europe may be inaccurate, a study conducted by researchers from the University of Lincoln, UK, and the University of Liège, Belgium, suggests.

Existing computer model simulations have failed to properly include air pressure changes that have occured in the Greenland region throughout the past 30 years, says The GWPF.

Over the last three decades, the simulations suggested a drop in summertime air pressure in the Greenland region. In reality, the air pressure in the area has gone up.

“These differences between the estimates from the current climate models and observations suggests [sic] that the models cannot accurately represent recent conditions or predict future changes in Greenland climate,” Edward Hanna, a professor of climate science and meteorology at Lincoln and co-lead author of the study, said in a statement.

The mistake could have global implications, as the simulations are observed throughout the world to predict future climate change.

The researchers believe current models predicting the melting of Greenland’s Ice Sheet, which encompasses more than 80 percent of Greenland’s surface, may significantly underestimate the global sea level rise by the year 2100.

They also predict there could be more summertime rainfall in England and Wales if Greenland air pressure continues to strengthen.

Continued here.

Comments
  1. Higher pressure in summer will give more sunshine and therefore higher temperatures.

    It is not higher temperatures that are leading to higher air pressure.

  2. tom0mason says:

    Not only is air pressure a problem for the models but also outside the equatorial regions, clouds, precipitation (amounts and location, especially poor with snow), and slow events like the current slowing of the NH westerlies (with its effects on the jet-stream).

    Basically the models are pretty poor outside the tropical areas where it is just mediocre.

  3. Phoenix44 says:

    I continue to find it quite incredible that anybody treats the models as anything other than vague possibilities that might happen if by fluke every assumption used was pretty much accurate.

    Not only is climate a complex, non-linear system, we understand very little about it. How we have reached this position where we believe the impossible – that the models are remotely useful in accurately predicting the future – is absolutely a mystery to me.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Phoenix – call it political pressure.

    The IPCC summaries for policymakers, partly drafted by ‘non-climate’ people (civil servants, ‘green’ pressure groups etc.), exclude most of the uncertainties expressed in the main report, leaving the required false impression of a sound basis of understanding that in reality doesn’t exist.

    Witness the exaggerated forecasts of warming that isn’t happening at anything like the ‘projected’ rate, if at all in the last 20 years. Plus the non-vanishing Arctic sea ice that has supposedly been ‘rapidly melting’ for about the last 40 years.

  5. tom0mason says:

    This link http://notrickszone.com/2018/10/17/global-warming-pause-extends-becoming-clear-ipcc-grossly-overstated-projected-warming/comment-page-1/#comment-1276414
    gives a list (with quote from many papers) of some of the latest identified shortcoming that modeling the climate struggle with.

  6. cognog2 says:

    As far as global temperatures are concerned it appears to me that the sum of purported adjustments and measurement errors is greater than the resulting anomaly result. Hence we are all wasting our time arguing about these models. Chaos rules in the long term and it time the scientific community cottoned on to that and stopped making stupid predictions.
    Might as well stick a wet finger in the wind.
    As for most of those pretty graphs: As with a picture, they can speak a thousand lies, particularly to those who produce them.
    ( sorry – feeling a bit cynical at the moment. Regards to all)

  7. oldbrew says:

    Cognog – you want to take away the alarmists’ main figleaf? Shock horror 😉

  8. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    There could be monsters under my bed is a long way from monsters under my bed. I have the same attachment to climate models.

  9. ivan says:

    Is it very surprising that they get predictions wrong when there isn’t one of the computer models they use that has been validated and verified? Because of that any output from those models can only be considered as garbage especially when the input is also garbage and all you get when you add two lots of garbage together is double the amount of garbage.

    Just why such models are accepted in academia is beyond my understanding – we don’t accept that stupidity in the real world of engineering and real science.

  10. pochas94 says:

    The failure of temperatures to increase in line with the ever-increasing CO2 concentrations invalidates the models. Resources directed at pushing this scam and the wealth transfers being demanded are being wasted.

  11. Patrick Geryl says:

    Who can research the claim that solar cycle 25 already started in April 2018?

    http://gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers/View/7495

  12. oldbrew says:

    Lubos Motl weighs in…

    Study: Swiss glaciers mostly melted before industrialization began

    Hundreds of papers are being published that show that the “anthropogenic climate change” paradigm is incorrect, at least in its strong forms. But I think that the following paper is rather cute because it’s so careful and it discusses one of the most obvious symptoms of “global warming” – the melting glaciers.
    . . .
    Clearly, the results indicate that the melting of the Alpine glaciers has a natural origin – something related to the end of the Little Ice Age. The authors don’t forget to add the disclaimer that this finding doesn’t exclude the possibility that the anthropogenic influence has grown prominent sometimes well after 1875 – they cannot say when and no obvious hint of a qualitative change in the recent era may be found in their graphs.

    https://motls.blogspot.com/2018/10/study-swiss-glaciers-mostly-melted.html

  13. oldbrew says:

    18% increase in cosmic rays since 2015…

  14. oldbrew says:

    Paul Homewood’s report on the UK climate

    UK SEEING A “GOLDILOCKS CLIMATE”
    Date: 23/10/18 Global Warming Policy Foundation

    Review of official data finds UK climate is more stable than predicted

    London, 23 October: Met Office weather data shows that the UK’s climate is changing very little. That’s according to a new briefing paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

    https://www.thegwpf.org/uk-seeing-a-goldilocks-climate/

    Report: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2018/10/State-UK-Climate2018.pdf

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