Global warming has never stopped in the past hundred years

Posted: November 14, 2018 by oldbrew in climate, Ocean dynamics, research, Temperature

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

Researchers believe the so-called global warming hiatus ended in 2014 ‘as a new El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was developing’. Whether there’s a struggle between natural cooling and non-natural warming is an open question. So-called internal variability can surely vary either up or down, i.e. warmer or cooler, in any time frame.

Global warming has been attributed to persistent increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially in CO2, since 1870, the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, say the researchers.

Nevertheless, the upward trend in global mean surface temperature (GMST) slowed or even paused during the first decade of the twenty-first century, even though CO2 levels continued to rise and reached nearly 400 ppm in 2013.

This episode has typically been termed the global warming hiatus or slowdown in warming. The hiatus is characterized as a near-zero trend over a period.

Detection found that the hiatus appeared during 2001-2013/2002-2012 with extremely weak interannual variability in some GMST sequences, and the slowdown in the others.

The hiatus is often attributed to internal climate variability, external forcing, or both, involving an increase in aerosols in the stratosphere during the period 2000-2010, the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) accompanying intensified trade winds, extensive heat uptake by the deep ocean or an extremely low number of sunspots during the latest solar activity cycle.

A new study published in Scientific Reports reveals that the global warming has never stopped in the past hundred years, with maximum rate of change after Second World War II and almost constant rate (0.08 deg.C/10a) during the latest three decades.

However, the key cooling against global warming comes from the interannual variability of the temperature that is coincided with the variability of the sea surface temperature in the equatorial mid-eastern Pacific.

Hence, the hiatus is merely a decadal balance between global warming and the cooling resulting from anomalous sea surface temperature in equatorial Pacific.

Continued here.

  1. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    Global cooling has just begun , the natural global warming era ended during year 2016. There has never been any AGW.

  2. ivan says:

    It’s not clear what they are saying in the extract – no indication where the data comes from or how it is interpreted but the ‘year’ graph they show has a distinct hockey stick look to it.

    There is a lot said about CO2 but I don’t see any mention of the fact that the earth is still recovering from the last ice age and the fact that that might have some bearing on things getting warmer.

  3. dennisambler says:

    Why wouldn’t it be warmer now than coming out of the LIA? Was that the “correct” temperature for the globe and who gets to decide?

  4. manicbeancounter says:

    The abstract of the paper appears to be about beliefs rather than actual evidence. It is about whether you believe recent changes to temperature data anomalies such as Karl et al 2015 are “corrections”, bringing the series in into line with the theoretical statistically unbiased global average, or of bringing the data into line with the beliefs about how the data ought to look from the a priori true AGW hypothesis.
    The inconvenient issue is that hiatus or slowdown both contradict the AGW theory, as the rate of warming ought to have accelerated following the acceleration in the rate of annual percentage increase in Mauna Loa CO2 levels in the late 1990s. A constant percentage increase should give a linear rate of warming.

  5. oldbrew says:

    There’s also the point that if natural cooling is ‘allowed’ (because observed e.g. Little Ice Age), then why not natural warming? Which is one step away from abolishing model-induced (computer generated) man-made warming.

    Reality trumps computer games every time.

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