Hot on the heels of the latest, much-derided US climate report, the UK Met. Office’s crystal ball gazers have waded in with their own prognostications. They offer a ‘range of future scenarios’ which are based on concentrations of trace gases in the atmosphere, because that’s what they believe matters the most. Their predictions, or projections, are…predictable. Look out for words like ‘could be’ and ‘up to’.
The UK’s most comprehensive picture yet of how the climate could change over the next century has been launched today by Environment Secretary Michael Gove.
The UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) include:
— UK’s most comprehensive projections of climate change
— Data gives most detailed picture yet of temperature, rainfall and sea level rise over next century
— Cutting-edge science to help businesses and homes plan for the future
Using the latest science from the Met Office and around the world, the UK Climate Projections 2018 illustrate a range of future climate scenarios until 2100 – showing increasing summer temperatures, more extreme weather and rising sea levels are all on the horizon and urgent international action is needed.
To help homes and businesses plan for the future, the results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The high emission scenario shows:
— Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer
— The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050
— Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100
— Average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 % by 2070, while there could be up to 35 % more precipitation in winter
Continued here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Slight problem here. The influences of these trace gases don’t seem to be traceable.
This is all part of the run-up to the December climate jamboree in coal-burning Poland.
Exclusive: At U.N. climate talks, Trump team plans sideshow on coal
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-accord-trump-exclusive/exclusive-at-u-n-climate-talks-trump-team-plans-sideshow-on-coal-idUSKCN1NK1MJ
It’s all based on non-scientific projections. That doesn’t stop the BBC scaremongers like McGrath and Harrabin being all over it like rats in a sewer.
Posted on November 26, 2018 by tonyheller
More barbecue science at the Met Office.
There is zero data to back up any of the UK Climate Assessment claims. Just like the US Climate Assessment it is completely fraudulent, and created for political purposes rather than scientific ones. The UK Met Office has a long history of completely useless long-term forecasting.
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/11/met-office-forecasts/
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Long before 2050 these ‘projections’ will have been replaced/forgotten. The people who made them will have retired, so no accountability there. They can say what they like and so they do.
oldbrew:
Should the climate turn cooler rather rapidly in the next 2-3 years then they may not have time to make a dignified exit.
They’re not confident about English summers. What does ‘41% drier to 9% wetter’ (‘low emissions scenario’) tell anyone, other than that they think the whole planet is somehow governed by ’emissions’?
How the hell does this utter nonsense help anyone plan anything? This is Richard Betts crap. He just cannot let go of their utter nonsense but his salary and pension depend on it, don’t they>
Disgusting
is this going to be the met office Michael Fish moment? since they have a 60:40 chance of getting it wrong on a two day forecast just what are their chances on the time period they have here? After all it is only political posturing and showing solidarity with the church of climatology..
The BBC of course headlined it tonight, but switching to Sky News it was Brexit all the way down, until the Russia-Ukraine argy-bargy.
Whose story were the public more likely to be interested in, BBC or Sky? No-brainer.
After 30+ years in science and technology, I never did find that “cutting” edge. Often, when I did read of someone claiming to be on it, there was someone else who was in the process of dulling it. I guess I just didn’t work for the right folks, government or industrial.
Well it’s the Met Office so it’s ALL politics — they are bought and paid for by the government.
This report is as worthy as the prognostication, on the same subject, from some government minister/functionary called Michael Gove. Both are utterly worthless.
Of note is that the Met Office say they more profit for the government (mainly because the government bought more services from them 😕 ?) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/met-office-annual-report-and-accounts-2017-to-2018
Re. the US version of the report…
Trump on climate change report: ‘I don’t believe it’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46351940
MET OFFICE: IF AT FIRST YOU DON’T SUCCEED … DOUBLE DOWN
Date: 26/11/18 Andrew Montford, GWPF
The Met Office’s previous climate predictions have been running far too hot. The latest ones are even more incredible.
https://www.thegwpf.com/if-at-first-you-dont-succeed-double-down/
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If we don’t listen when they make an alarmist claim, the response is to make even more alarmist claims. This pattern will probably repeat until the whole farce finally collapses under the weight of its own bullshit.
“Most detailed” just means most wrong. Spurious accuracy as my first boss woyuld yellwhen I modelled the unknown in more deatail.
This sort of thing is designed to make the non-scientific think the Met Office really, really knows what its doing whilst actually demonstrating the reverse.
If they could just get the weather to do what their models say, everything would be fine 😐
But they can’t.
Climate silly season – latest doom,gloom and disaster unless… blah blah…
Climate change ‘could see floods and storms triple’
Tuesday 27 November 2018
A new report says this could cause significant economic and social damage across Europe and North America by the end of the 21st century
New research from a team led by the University of Exeter has warned the increasing frequency of extratropical cyclones is likely to cause widespread social and economic damage.
It claims unless there is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, there will be a marked increase in the number of storms happening the Northern Hemisphere – the study suggests the impact on local communities could be severe, with more intense storms leading to greater large-scale flooding events.
the increasing frequency of extratropical cyclones – when/where? More model make-believe?
In any case none of their claims (should they have any merit) have any proven or credible link to trace gases in the atmosphere.
It is interesting that these reports talk about the “existential threat” if CO2, yet when skeptics dare to call the consensus predictions “catastrophic” the skeptics are blamed for being deceitful.
And when the tax payer funded predictions prove to be wrong, no group in power holds those who make these failed predictions to account.
And it is even more interesting that the skeptics of the failed predictions, when proven correct time and time and time again, are met with even more calls for censorship and deliberate exclusion.
An important aspect of these reports is that not only are they recycled from previous failed predictive reports, not only are they based on ignoring the data and the history. The process depends on no one in authority holding them accountable for their past. It also depends on faux journalists parroting these unoriginal reports with complete credulity.
Watching as gate keepers from different groups can fail so frequently and so predictably is fascinating.
Huh D** Bampots – it’s Wednesday 28th Nov 2018 for the future record: What happened to the big severe storm “Diana” that was supposed to dump so much Rain and 60-70 mph winds around us – last coupla days ? If the Met Office can’t even get THIS weather forecast correct, what hope for FUTURE forecasting ?. Just another Yodeling Echo chamber. If only they could Jodel.