Strong chance of a new El Niño forming, says WMO

Posted: November 27, 2018 by oldbrew in ENSO, Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, predictions, weather
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The last one finished in mid-2016 and was one of the strongest on record.

The World Meteorological Organization says there’s a 75-80% chance of the weather phenomenon forming by next February, BBC News reports.

The naturally occurring event causes changes in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and has a major influence on weather patterns around the world.

It is linked to floods in South America and droughts in Africa and Asia.

El Niño events often lead to record temperatures as heat rises from the Pacific.

According to the WMO update, sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October. However the atmosphere has not yet responded to the extra warmth that’s produced by the upwelling seas.

Scientists have been predicting the likelihood of a new event since May this year, with confidence increasing.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there’s a 90% chance of the event starting in January.

Continued here.

See also: Ian Wilson: Is the November 2018 Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) a possible trigger for an El Niño?

Comments
  1. Bulaman says:

    The lattitude of the cooler water looks off. My understanding for El Nino is the cool water straddles the equator and this is well south. The Australia BOM ENSO still show nuetral
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI so it looks a bit guess work to me.

  2. oldbrew says:

    WMO: In summary:

    Conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been at a weak El Niño level since October 2018, but the corresponding El Niño patterns have not developed in the atmosphere.

    Model predictions and expert opinion indicate a 75-80% chance that the ocean and atmosphere will couple, leading to the occurrence of an El Niño during the period December 2018-February 2019. Odds are about 60% for El Niño to continue through February-April 2019.

    Model predictions and expert opinion also lead us to expect a weak to moderate El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures of about 0.8 to 1.2 degrees Celsius above average in the east-central tropical Pacific for the December 2018-February 2019 season. A strong El Niño event appears unlikely at this stage.

    Through Northern Hemisphere spring 2019, the development of La Niña is highly unlikely.

    http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

  3. Stephen Richards says:

    They cannot forecast this important climatic event even 3 before.

  4. ivan says:

    Why do they put so much trust in their models when all the models have proved themselves spectacularly wrong?

  5. oldbrew says:

    The models are hamstrung by the theory they are using. Doomed to endless code fiddling.

  6. oldbrew says:

    This week in history…

    Not the endless downward trend they try to claim, at least in this location.

  7. There is no indication in the SOI figures of an El Nino. North East Australia (Qld and norhern NSW) have been in drought. There are indications from history that the drought is breaking and maybe a La Nina associated with rain and floods is coming. The SOI is looking a bit like 2010 when the previous Qld drought broke and there were floods in Brisbane (killing a large number of people in Jan 2011. Floods also occured in other parts of Qld in 2012.

  8. Phoenix44 says:

    “However the atmosphere has not yet responded to the extra warmth that’s produced by the upwelling seas.”

    Or perhaps it has and without the warning would have been cooler! Always with the unwarranted assumptions about everything.

  9. should have added -if you go here https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ you will see the latest SOI figures. Then at the left see monthly SOI graphs. This gives the recent monthly figures. However above the graph one can highlight graphs of SOI going back to the 1850’s and one can home into selected periods with the mouse cursor. Look at the trends around 1998. Above +20 in blue is a tendency to La Nina (more rain) , below -20 in red is El Nino (hot and dry). look at 2010 before the floods which BOM should have predicted and the stupid Qld government had the main Brisbane dams full at flood level before the rainy season which is Jan, Mar and Apr. The government after the floods reduced the maximum level to 75% so high rainfall can be accommodated to mitigate floods.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Sydney just had its wettest November day since 1984.

    Sydney storms: Hundreds call for help amid flash-flooding
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-46366961

  11. ren says:

    The atmosphere is still not responding to the rise in the temperature of the equatorial Pacific.
    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

  12. ren says:

    You can only sympathize with the Americans.

  13. bazmd says:

    The sun causes it. Everything else is just lies.

  14. tallbloke says:

    The Solar minimum certainly seems to be associated with large El Ninos. I concur with Ian that next year is more likely.

  15. oldbrew says:

    El Niño Inches Closer, Warmer Winter Ahead
    6 December 2018

    According to Skymet Weather, almost 90% of all the weather models across the globe are predicting 80% probability of formation of El Niño conditions during the Winter 2018-19 and into spring 2019 with 50%-60% probability.

    Thereafter, it is showing signs of receding and possibly it could turn out into a devolving El Niño during the Southwest Monsoon 2019. We must say that devolving is not harmful as compared to evolving one, but the threat of abnormality cannot be ruled out.

    See more at: https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/el-nino-inches-closer-warmer-winters-ahead/

    Lots of %%% 😐

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