Are we at the beginning of Solar Cycle 25?

Posted: November 29, 2018 by oldbrew in Cycles, solar system dynamics
Tags: ,


This story appeared two weeks ago, and is by no means the first to suggest the arrival of the new solar cycle. But now the claims are getting louder and the telltale sunspots bigger.

Looks like Solar Cycle 25 has indeed begun, writes Christian Harris at Spaceweatherlive.

The first photo is the mapping of how strong each hemisphere of the sun’s magnetic field is, blue for the northern, red for southern, and black is the average field strength.

The second photo covers from about 2014 (SC24 maximum) to last month.

When the new solar cycle begins, the polarity strength of each hemisphere maxes, and then begins to decrease as the two hemispheres start to blend together.

The northern hemisphere appears to already have peaked and is decreasing, while the southern looks like it’s just beginning to drop.

Also helps explain why the new sunspot was in the northern hemisphere.

The average magnetic field strength peaked a bit higher than the beginning of last cycle’s, so hopefully this means a more active maximum. Though the amount of data we have compared to our star’s lifespan is basically zero, so it’s hard to tell.
– – –
Other commentators have suggested the same thing, including the latest offering this week from Miles Mathis: SOLAR CYCLE 25 has already begun, in which he says he predicted the 2018 start four years ago.

He points out that the Wikipedia page on solar cycle 25 has a link to this website: Cycle 25 observations in SDO HMI imagery, which is where the image at the top of this post came from.

  1. oldbrew says: currently says the actual solar cycle minimum is ‘likely to be sometime between August 2018 and February 2019’.

    Update — it’s index page has a link: ‘Cycle 24 progress (November 1, 2018) / Cycle 25 spots (November 18, 2018)’
    which used to just say ‘Cycle 24 progress(*latest date*)’
    – – –
    A Correlation Between Sun Spot Cycles and El Niño
    Dr. James H. L. Lawler 1997

    There is a correlation between Solar Sun spot cycles and El Niño events.

    Every year following a minimum number of solar sun spots is an El Niño year. The El Niño events also happen at other times in between these 11 year cycles, but every solar minimum is associated with an El Niño event.

  2. oldbrew says:

    Written 5 weeks ago…

    In terms of solar activity, we are now at the very end of the weakest solar cycle (#24) in more than a century and are rapidly approaching the next solar minimum – usually the least active time in a given solar cycle. In truth, there is a chance that we have already entered into the solar minimum phase which is not always known until “after-the-fact”.

  3. peterandnen says:

    A picture is worth a thousand words (and guesses).
    Royal Observatory of Belgium chart suggests we might be in for a bit more of a lull before cycle 25 kicks off
    Evolution of spotless days in SC24-SC-25
    Looks like 800 plus spotless days for this minimum?
    Cool 😉

  4. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    Let’s hope a solar Grand Minimum is in store. Let’s put an end to the AGW hoax once and for all.

  5. Salvatore Del Prete says:

    If solar cycle 24 is short and weak which is highly unusual what does that mean for future overall solar activity moving forward next decade?

  6. oldbrew says:

    SC 25 could be the other half of the ~22 year magnetic Hale cycle (11y N,11y S).

    A Sunspot From The Next Solar Cycle?
    November 19, 2018

    Over the weekend, a small sunspot materialized in the sun’s northern hemisphere, then, hours later, vanished again. Such an occurrence is hardly unusual during solar minimum when sunspots are naturally small and short-lived. However, this ephemeral spot was noteworthy because its magnetic field was reversed–marking it as a member of the next solar cycle.
    – – –
    The 22-Year Hale Cycle in Cosmic Ray Flux – Evidence for Direct Heliospheric Modulation
    Simon R Thomas, Mathew J Owens, Mike Lockwood

    However, it is also demonstrated that these polarity-dependent heliospheric differences are evident during the space-age but much less clear in earlier data: using geomagnetic reconstructions, it is shown that for the period of 1905 – 1965, alternate polarities do not give as significant a difference during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Thus we suggest that the 22-year cycle in cosmic ray flux is at least partly the result of direct modulation by the heliospheric magnetic field and that this effect may be primarily limited to the grand solar maximum of the space-age.

  7. oldbrew says:

    A Sunspot from Cycle 25 for sure
    1st Author: Tomek Mrozek
    2nd Author: Hugh Hudson
    Published: 10 April 2018

    The Cycle 25 Sunspot

    At the time of writing, NOAA has not identified this new sunspot with an official active-region number, and so there could be some things to quibble about. But the magnetic polarity of the region unmistakeably identifies it as a piece of the new cycle, because it reverses the polarity expected for Cycle 24 regions. [bold added]

    That led to this…

  8. oldbrew says:

    SdP says: If solar cycle 24 is short and weak [etc]

    It certainly means it’s atypical, so harder to predict what happens next by referring to any similar previous patterns.
    – – –
    The green ‘projection’ is trending slightly upwards…

  9. ren says:

    From December 2020, Jupiter will start moving away from Saturn. Solar activity may decline.

  10. ren says:

    The division of the 24 cycle into two phases is very visible: one from 2010 to 2014 and the second from 2014 to 2018.

  11. ren says:

    This is close to the amplitude of the Zharkova wave.

  12. What’s the hurry with the SC 24/25 minimum? It’s not that near.

    Not before 2020. Not even a real start of the SC 25, in spite of a few spots that may be attributed to the new cycle.

  13. ren says:

    edimbukvarevic says:
    What’s the hurry with the SC 24/25 minimum? It’s not that near.
    I agree.

  14. oldbrew says:

    Looking back to the start of cycle 24…

    NASA — Jan. 10, 2008: Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

    “On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24,” says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

    We now have the same thing for cycle 25? However the Wikipedia list of SCs says:
    Solar cycle 24 | 2008 December – nearly a year later.
    – – –
    But if we take it back to the April 2018 sunspot, and add nearly a year, that brings us to around March 2019 as a potential ‘official’ start date for SC 25. That would still be earlier than most predictions, if it turns out that way.

  15. tom0mason says:

    SC24 or SC25? It like pin the tail on the pony.
    All will be known by this time next year, and the early freeze of NH winter will surprise so many.

  16. oldbrew says:

    (5.9 yr should read 5.5 yr?)

  17. oldbrew says:

    Many solar cycle researchers think that cycle 25 will start late 2019 or even in 2020-2021. However, after analyzing the lowest adjusted 10.7cm solar flux values, we find that the adjusted flux for November 2018 is low enough to give the start of solar cycle 25 between October 2018 and February 2019, November 2018 being most likely.

    (PDF) The Adjusted Solar Flux & the Start of Solar Cycle 25.