Ian Wilson: Is the Next Big Westerly Wind Burst On Its Way?

Posted: December 10, 2018 by oldbrew in Forecasting, Natural Variation, wind

‘I am really sticking my neck out on this one!’ – IW. Indeed – good luck, results next week.
Note: El Niño link added, includes short video.

Information on the progress of the latest MJO that started on 02/12/2018
[As of 09/12/2018]
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ – last accessed at 7:00 P.M. EAST 09/12/2018

Hypothesis: During periods leading up to the onset of El Niño events, nascent Typhoon/Cyclone pairs associated with the active phase of Madden Julian Oscillations are reinforced either at or 1-2 days after the maxima or minima in the Earth’s rotation rate that are induced by the monthly lunar tides.

This figure [above] shows that on the 02-12-2018 the new MJO was just moving into phase 1 and that by the 09-12-2018 it was starting to progress into phase 3 [see the locations marked on the left of the diagram above].

Continued here.

  1. oldbrew says:

    It’s like any scientific experiment – not guaranteed to work 🙂

    But maybe something could still be learned from it, even if it falls short.

  2. oldbrew says:

    Is El Niño already here?

    El Niño behind warmer winter: Met
    Dec 11, 2018

    “The El Niño impact has led to maximum and minimum temperature remaining one degree above normal in Patna. Besides El Niño, the northwesterly winds have also not been dominant over the Gangetic plains, resulting in warmer days in Patna,” a senior official at Patna Meteorological Centre said.

    Read more at:
    – – –
    El Niño may weaken beyond February 2019, but caution advised

    The concurrent 2018 El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific is forecast to weaken beyond February 2019, but caution should ideally be the watchword for vulnerable economies in the Asia-Pacific.

    This is stated in the December advisory brought out by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), both based in Bangkok.

    All global models indicate further weakening of the 2018 El Niño beyond February 2019. However, the historical evolution of El Niño during 1986, 1991 and 2014 show variations.


  3. tom0mason says:

    Using GFS data here’s an animation of all this ‘global warming’ https://www.ventusky.com/?p=46;4;1&l=temperature-2m&m=gfs

  4. Shaun says:

    Wow, pair of lows either side of the equator east of India today on nullschool- seems like a positive result for your prediction?

  5. Shaun says:

    OK, got it now, thanks.

  6. oldbrew says:

    BoM: Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans
    18 December 2018

    Warm Pacific Ocean but no corresponding change in weather & climate patterns

    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, despite ocean temperatures being at El Niño levels. The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.
    . . .
    The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has ended, and neutral IOD conditions prevail.

    More here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

    BoM outlook: ‘El Niño onset during [southern] summer would be unusual’

  7. Salvatore Del Prete says:

  8. oldbrew says:

    Excellent. Let’s see how the next prediction for ‘some time between the 23rd and 25th of December’ [see link above] goes.

  9. poly says:

    Astro, I see there is a well developed pair of cyclones off Philipines and N.Australia.
    Is this pair too far west for your prediction at about Christmas? Has there been a significant WWB?

  10. oldbrew says:

    More climate FUD…

    Reliable tropical weather pattern to change in a warming climate
    December 28, 2018 by Anne Manning, Colorado State University

    Every month or two, a massive pulse of clouds, rainfall and wind moves eastward around the Earth near the equator, providing the tropics their famous thunderstorms.

    This band of recurring weather, first described by scientists in 1971, is called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It has profound effects on weather in distant places, including the United States. Atmospheric scientists have long studied how the Madden-Julian Oscillation modulates extreme weather events across the globe, from hurricanes to floods to droughts.

    As human activities cause the Earth’s temperature to increase, reliable, well-studied weather patterns like the Madden-Julian Oscillation will change too, say researchers at Colorado State University.

    Eric Maloney, professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science, has led a new study published in Nature Climate Change that attributes future changes in the behavior of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to anthropogenic global warming.


    Baloney from Maloney.

  11. tallbloke says:

    Tremendous work Ian. Keep the predictions coming.

  12. oldbrew says:

    NOAA also said the current rainfall in California is not due to an El Niño, although that kind of weather is a typical symptom. But NOAA said another weather pattern, the Madden Julian Oscillation, is more likely responsible for the enhanced rainfall along the West Coast. Forecasters say even a small El Niño can magnify weather events.