The Latest on the Double-Dynamo Solar Model, and Dr. Zharkova’s Predictions of a Grand Minimum

Posted: December 13, 2018 by oldbrew in climate, predictions, solar system dynamics
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How ‘grand’ the predicted solar minimum could be is a popular subject for speculation. More analysis here.

The Next Grand Minimum

By Stephanie Osborn

The Osborn post is a lengthy explanation of Dr. Zharkova’s model, model updates and predictions, with some additional example of how the ‘barycentric wobble’ influences the earth’s temperature. For readers who found Dr. Zharkova’s GWPF Presentation confusing, this article will help with the understanding of her model’s significance, and the output is worth considering. Osborn’s bio is HERE.

Osborn’s evaluation of Zharkova’s model:

Zharkova’s model is supported not only by sunspot numbers and solar activity, but by other solar-studies fields: magnetohydrodynamics and helioseismology. In fact, the resulting data plots from these fields are so close to Zharkova’s model predictions, that the model could as well be based on either of those. So this model is not functioning in isolation from related science, but is in fact harmonizing quite well with it.

The Dalton extended minimum (1790-1830) is evidently an example of a Gleissberg minimum, while the…

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Comments
  1. JB says:

    I wasn’t all that impressed with Stephanie’s explanations. She appeared to be struggling with magnetism, and orbital movement as regards the barycenter herself. Several times it appeared to me she was contradicting herself.

    An inspection of the global temperature plot from 2550 BC to 2040 AD at longerangeweather.com reveals there is a very long cycle affecting the 400yr grand minimum amplitude. The slope for the last three thousand years is negative and non-linear, and also strongly suggesting we are not even close to the bottom of the grand cycle “trough.”

    The mass-vol ratio of the Sun, Jupiter and Uranus are all close together, while Saturn’s is almost half. This suggests the Sun is not entirely composed of plasma as she asserts. To my knowledge nobody yet has determined just what the core of any of the solar system orbs are composed of, educated guesses notwithstanding.

    As for reporters–well do any two observers report identical information? Do scientists? We’re indeed all happy when they get close. I have not read the reports she refers to, but my sense is the reporters were not really so far off interpreting Zharkova’s lecture about the 400 yr grand cycle effects.

  2. stpaulchuck says:

    what a great couple of articles! Any model that is 97% accurate certainly has my attention. I also like tying the solar wind to the cosmic ray/cloud cycle and the total solar insolation in the upper and lower atmosphere. It goes a long way towards explaining many of the climate fluctuations. Add in a few dozen big volcanoes and pretty soon you have a good model for climate unlike the current laughable examples.

  3. dai davies says:

    This is what the oceans are telling us. The 800y thermohaline ocean current is like a looped recording tape of Earth’s temperature. Deep waters are rising that collected heat during the Medieval Warm Period.
    Model was produced by an algorithm optimised for extracting cyclic components with periods greater than the data length.

  4. ren says:

    Is the excess of ozone over the Bering Sea in the stratosphere due to the increase in CO2? Excess ozone models the polar vortex and tropospheric circulation.

    Abstract
    In this work we study links between low cloud anomalies (LCA) at middle latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations used as a proxy of solar variability on the decadal time scale. It was shown that these links are not direct, but realized through GCR/solar activity phenomena influence on the development of extratropical baric systems (cyclones and troughs) which form cloud field. The violation of a positive correlation between LCA and GCR intensity which was observed in the 1980s–1990s occurred simultaneously in the Northern and Southern hemispheres in the early 2000s and coincided with the sign reversal of GCR effects on troposphere circulation. It was suggested that a possible reason for the correlation reversal between cyclonic activity at middle latitudes and GCR fluxes is the change of the stratospheric polar vortex intensity which influences significantly the troposphere-stratosphere coupling. The evidences for a noticeable weakening of the polar vortices in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere in the early 2000s are provided. The results obtained suggest an important role of the polar vortex evolution as a reason for a temporal variability of solar activity effects on the lower atmosphere.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682616300979
    As a result of low solar activity and the increase of ionizing radiation in the stratosphere, there will still be an excess of ozone over eastern Siberia and the Bering Sea. Then ozone will flow to North America. The polar vortex will be divided into two parts, one of which will be over Canada.

  5. ren says:

    The temperature of the stratosphere plays a fairly significant role in the weather across the UK, so from here you can view the stratosphere temperature forecast right out to 16 days in 3 hour timesteps. Just click the arrow buttons or drag the slider to view the forecasts for different times, or click the animate button to view an animation of the current forecast.
    https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere

  6. ren says:

    SSW over Canada, with a decrease in geomagnetic activity.
    http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/latest2day.imagemap?251,128

  7. oldbrew says:

    *Unfolding stratospheric warming event signaling more frigid air is likely in store for the central and eastern US*
    December 11, 2018

    https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/12/11/1100-am-unfolding-stratospheric-warming-event-signaling-more-frigid-air-is-likely-in-store-for-the-central-and-eastern-us

    Note: the numbers on the right are the anomaly i.e. difference from the norm at this time of year.

  8. Actually if you plot Jupiter’s position in relation to the center of the galaxy and then Saturn’s position to the center as well and then use them as an indici to the level of sunspots you will find that they agree almost exactly. There are some modifiers, but this is the way things work. Take a look here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lfd5hO-DthvyDY5Gz2WoaWY8ribtCQWPiQbDJkXSrV4/edit?usp=sharing use Chrome to open

  9. pochas94 says:

    @ dai davies
    I actually like your chart better. If it took 400 years to get from the Maunder to here, the peak of the cycle, then we’re not going to to next minimum any time soon.

  10. Mark Sommer says:

    Can anyone comment on the decline of UV and visible light irradiance in 2018 ?

  11. oldbrew says:

    @ Mark S

    UV low during recent solar minimum
    Anthony Watts / September 20, 2011
    From the American Geophysical Union:

    Ultraviolet solar irradiance was low during recent solar minimum
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/20/uv-low-during-recent-solar-minimum/

    Lockwood ‘finds that solar irradiance during the recent sunspot minimum has been especially low.’ (an earlier one obviously).

  12. Mark Sommer says:

    Oldbrew, have a look at the SOURCE spectral data on lisird for say, 300nm, 480 nm in 2018. Down about 0.6% over 300 to 850nm wavelength range. Much larger decline than ever recorded back to 2004. Actually, the only large decline since 2004. Since the satellite became operational.. Please comment. I may start prepping and sail south!

  13. oldbrew says:

    It’s the end of the current cycle. The next cycle could be an interesting one, if the sunspot count stays lower than before.

  14. oldmanK says:

    No expert here, and utterly confused. It seems it is expected that the next solar cycle sunspot count may be very low leading to a Maunder replica. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4O6bh8OpL70 at 26:00

    Yet the Eddy cycle points to a peak warming around 2100. MM was a cold Eddy trough/root. Eddy roots in Holocene were diabolical. Today’s temp seem to be approaching Holocene temp’s.

    @ Mark S , be careful where you sail to.

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