Tornadoes have not co-operated with climate alarmists in 2018 

Posted: January 1, 2019 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Natural Variation, Uncertainty, weather
Tags: ,

Kansas tornado [image credit: Wikipedia]

Of course 2019 may be different, but claims of a trend towards more severe weather due to human activity fall flat when the evidence fails to point in the predicted direction.
H/T The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

2018 [has] become the first year since formal record keeping began in 1950, in which the United States has not endured even one “violent” tornado.  

Violent tornadoes are classified on the Enhanced Fujita Scale as being EF4 (winds of 166-200 mph) or EF5 (winds 200 mph).

The previous low number of violent tornadoes reported was in 2005, with only one.

The strongest tornado reported in all of North America this year was an EF4, which touched down in Manitoba in August. Only 12 EF3 tornadoes (136-165 mph) have touched down in the United States this year, also a record low.
. . .
Fatalities from tornadoes in the United States are at an all-time low this year as well, with only 10 deaths reported. In an average year, tornadoes kill 69 Americans. The deadliest year for tornadoes was reportedly 1925, when the Tri-State Tornado alone killed 695 people in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

The reasons for the lack of tornadoes this year are not completely known; however, “one key factor is high pressure tending to be more dominant than normal throughout peak season this past spring,” noted Ian Livingstone, a forecaster for Capital Weather Gang. High pressure systems generally tend to lead to blue skies and fewer clouds and storms.

“This was particularly so during April and May when tornado numbers were below to well below normal,” Livingstone added.

But with climate change, aren’t we supposed to see more violent and extreme weather?

Continued here.

  1. ren says:

    Visible waves in the upper stratosphere that led to the breaking of the polar vortex.

    Visible weakness polar vortex (wind) in the upper stratosphere.

    Anomalies of temperature in the stratosphere over the polar circle.

  2. ren says:

    Temperature jump in the upper stratosphere.

    Visible jumps of temperature in the stratosphere.

    These jumps are related to periodic changes in the speed of the solar wind.

  3. ren says:

    According to the forecast, on January 4, the stratospheric polar vortex will be completely divided.

  4. ren says:

    Polar vortex breakdown is transferred to the lower stratosphere.

  5. ivan says:

    It just proves you can’t rely on unverified computer simulations especially if they are unvalidated.

    My general response to all those that rabbit on that climate change is man made is – prove it. and a computer model isn’t proof.

  6. ren says:

    High over Iceland moves east and over Central Europe and the Balkans arctic air will flow. Temperature anomalies in the south of Europe will be below -10 degrees C.

  7. ren says:

    Over the North Atlantic will create a great high.

  8. ren says:

    In addition, the solar wind from the coronal hole will increase the wind speed in the stratosphere.

  9. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    Ah but non co-operation is proof that the models are correct (well it ‘worked’ with hurricanes and the pause) 🙄

  10. poly says:

    Ren, thanks for all the interesting data. Please add some more words and explanations to help us understand.

  11. oldbrew says:

    The usual m.o. for climate know-it-alls is to keep their heads down until the next weather event, then grab their alarm bells. So predictable and so science-free.

  12. Bitter@twisted says:

    The only thing I attribute to “attribution scientists” is lies.

  13. oldbrew says:

    Talking of climate alarmists, Mr Paris Accord starts 2019 with a rant…

  14. ren says:

    Changes in the stratosphere are best seen on this page.

  15. ren says:

    Very high pressure over the British Isles, around 1040 hPa.

  16. hunter says:

    Macron Antoinette has become a hysterical pathetic bigot against his own people. He is heading for a political beheading. Can’t happen too soon.

  17. poly says:

    Ren, thanks, I will try and follow those links.

  18. oldbrew says:

    Tony Heller strikes again…

    New Video : Fraud In The National Climate Assessment (Part 3)
    Posted on January 1, 2019 by tonyheller

    The Climate Industrial Complex

  19. ren says:

    On January 5, a small polar vortex will separate in the stratosphere over eastern Canada.

  20. ren says:

    Between Greenland and Scandinavia stationary high will be created.

  21. pochas94 says:

    My inexpert opinion: Convective and advective activity follows solar activity. We may enjoy a respite in hurricanes and tornadoes until solar activity resumes. But they will be baaaack!!

  22. hunter says:

    Not one weather metric (and weather is the manifestation of climate) has cooperated with the climate consensus.
    Tornadoes have been trending glad to down for years.
    The climate consensus promoters will flip this around and either “adjust” the data or claim it is actually as predicted.

  23. oldbrew says:

    SOI peaked at the end of the year, but the 30 day average is well down in the last few days.

    Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

    SOI values for 3 Jan, 2019
    Average SOI for last 30 days 7.42
    Average SOI for last 90 days 4.31
    Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.00
    Monthly average SOI values
    Oct 2.61
    Nov 0.56
    Dec 9.14

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