GWPF is Having a Contest To Guess 2019’s Temperature

Posted: February 12, 2019 by oldbrew in MET office, predictions, Temperature

Predicting a global temperature rise during a solar minimum might be over-optimistic.

sunshine hours

GWPF is having a contest to guess 2019’s Temperature.

My chart of HADCRUT temperatures is below. Note how close Feb 2018 came to Feb 1878! .403 to .528

With GWPF readers having trounced the Met Office at predicting temperatures for 2018, it will very interesting to see if you can do just as well for 2019.

So we hereby announce the 2019 HadCRUT temperature prediction competition. Once again, the opportunity is there to win some magnificent prizes: more whisky, and your choice of a book from the growing range of GWPF titles.

Of course the real prize on offer is to do better than the boys in Exeter. The Met Office are again being very aggressive on the warming front. They are predicting a 0.19°C warming next year (!), plus or minus 0.12°C. So their predicted range is 0.67-0.91°C.

So will carbon dioxide sweep all before it as they think? Will…

View original post 100 more words

  1. P.A.Semi says:

    It largely depends, if there will again be man-made large-scale fires like last year…

    The exceptionally high temperatures in Europe in 2018 were very much related to California and Canada fires, and also to some extent probably by air raising from Sahara desert northward to Europe… It could be seen, that the air, which cooled at night as usual, much more warmed during following day than usually…

    As CO2 does NOT cause almost ANY warming, but Soot (aerosols), Dust and Deserts (including urban heat islands) do, and partly the Cirrus clouds, which are partly seeded by aeronautics…
    There you can see the aerosols from California fires, there is a link to NASA page with more information and examples…

    A summer day in 2018, ECMWF “prediction” model for that-day present time.
    Notice the deserts. There is not any much CO2 in deserts, rather there is less than elsewhere of CO2. Notice the Taklamakan desert (above Himalay mountains), from which hot air flows into China… (If compared with map, the red spot is almost twice the size of that desert, but if you observed animation of multiple days, you could see, that it is because the air flows from that desert to inland China, this one is just a still-image from that animation…) Compare India with Iran and Saudi Arabia – there is very probably more air polution and CO2 in India than in Saudi Arabia and possibly also more than in Iran, yet the temperature difference is huge… Also compare California and Texas in USA, same latitutde and so a same relation to Haddley cell? This single picture very obviously shows the falsehood of CO2 climate propaganda…

    And so to the temperature-prediction contest – since it partly depends on presence of large-extent fires, it is not possible to predict it yet. And the information, that California fires were man-made arson are not verifiable much, but you cannot just simply deny that and probability it is right is somehow higher, than you estimate…

  2. P.A.Semi says:

    850hPa temperature… cca 31Mb file…

    Here are images from summer 2018, one at noon, one at midnight each day from June to August, to appreciate, how hot air from deserts flows, and how it warms and cools during days…

    If the blinking night-day annoys you, copy it to another folder and use command:
    del *000000_0h*
    del *120000_0h*
    to get rid either of UTC noon or midnight part… (but noon and midnight depends on longitude, so that way you would select British noon or midnight while California morning or evening and India vice-versa — as I write this, I somehow start to better understand the difference between Iran afternoon and India evening on those maps…?)

    Data is from ECMWF (European center for medium-range weather forecasts) as the WMO essential (rectangular dataset 144×73 pixels), projection and color-code by me, I can provide numerical data upon request too… (but I have some gaps in data since 2017-10 to 2018-01-10 when they changed the format, before I upgraded my software to get any use of newer format and then updated the download engine, when I finally found out, which of those available files I need (here I download 850hPa temp, Geopot 500, MSL pressure, U-wind and V-wind, as a “0 hour prediction”), and this dataset I collect only since 2015-01 to cross-check NOAA NCEP re-analysis model. NCEP re-analysis is available since 1948 as daily averages, to be downloaded only at start of following year… upon request I may provide images from that dataset too, or win32 command-line tools to process their data…)

  3. P.A.Semi says:

    (And as I read it once again (sorry for multiple posts), the difference between Iran and India on my picture is also caused, that it is 850 hPa temperature, and Iran are mountains, so it is near the surface, but over India it is high aloft… But still Taklamakan and air-flow from it is not explained by altitude…)

  4. oldbrew says:

    Re: the information, that California fires were man-made arson are not verifiable much, but you cannot just simply deny that and probability it is right is somehow higher, than you estimate…

    PG&E equipment and power lines caused Northern California wildfires, says Cal Fire [Update]

    Utility corporation claims it met state’s fire safety standards
    Updated Jun 8, 2018

  5. thegoosefish says:

    I am predicting the 18th highest temperature. somewhere around a +.49 to +.51 anomaly.

    My guess is as good as anyone else’s.

  6. P.A.Semi says:

    > PG&E equipment and power lines caused Northern California wildfires

    I’ve seen photos of melted steel car parts, while I’m not sure now… That would not be wildfire, but some electro-magnetic (induction) weapon… (neither petrol nor wood or grass fire would melt a steel car!)

    Also, the fires started somewhere near some nuclear production or storage facility…? And people were not allowed to return to burned homes soon? Which is at-least a wanton totality…

    Don’t expect it to be publicly confirmed anywhere… Maybe it was just a slander? But IF it was not a slander, they would hardly admit it publicly… I give man-made arson or some nuclear facility fault (it’s not power-plant, there is some storage, possibly related to weapon production and following cleanup???, I’m not sure now…) somewhere at 30% (10-50%) probability and no public report can alleviate that… (we’ve seen too much fake “reports” already…)

    (As a note – the url you posted uses very vicious 11-20Mb jpegs for unrelated article advertisement below in noscript section (I consider it their revenge for using noscript!), and it requires to download 60Mb (and store 80Mb) for that single article just to read it… very nasty and selfish of them… (I don’t accuse you, but them…) As I read it, it was a nasty day that Oct 8, if so many trees fell on power lines? But note, that my URL on RT/NASA Aerosols is already from August, not October… And those correlate with severe drought in central Europe…)

    But regardless if man-made, IF Wildfires are major contributor to that year’s temperature deviation (due to soot aerosols, not CO2), it’s hard to predict anything real, and if past re-analysis does not take these Aerosols into account and computes temperature only from CO2, then it would be just an invalid propaganda, nothing more…

    (I also suspect those cali-fire aerosols from draught in Central Europe last year 2018 (very severe drought comparable with 2015 and unmatched for some 60 years before), since the water from ocean clouds rains down sooner with abundance of condensation nuclei aloft, but I still need to analyse it (rains) better later, now it’s just a conjecture…)

    And now all are concerned with temperature and warming, but actually, from more CO2 prosper plants and crops, from higher temperature prosper many things, but actual threat is Drought instead of Warming!
    And it does not depend much on temperature (or rather with opposite causality?), or actually the more warm, the more water evaporates from oceans ? (Not sure now)

  7. stpaulchuck says:

    I’ve got this covered. I predict with 100% certainty that this year’s temperature will be the same as last year’s, plus or minus 2 degrees Fahrenheit. See how easy that is.

  8. oldbrew says:

    Possibly cooler than 2018…

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