On the Cusp of the Next Grand Minimum?

Posted: February 19, 2019 by oldbrew in climate, Clouds, Natural Variation, opinion, predictions, Temperature
Tags: , ,

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As the ‘official’ (IPCC, Met Office etc.) view insists that more warming lies ahead, other analysts foresee significant cooling. Clearly, somebody has to be wrong.

The Next Grand Minimum

Definition — cusp: a point of transition between two different states

The transition from the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age was punctuated by extreme climate events, intense storms, floods, and droughts according to Lynn Ingram and Francis Malamud-Roam writing in The West Without Water. According to the authors, the transition from the Little Ice Age to the Modern Warm Period also experienced erratic weather extremes. Wolfgang Behringer, writing in the Cultural History of Climate, found similar transitions to more extreme weather. These extreme record-setting events are a signal that the overall climate is moving to a different state, in other words on the cusp of climate change.

Some recent record events:

Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido: Record cold temperatures, minus 24.4 C, the lowest seen since it began compiling such data in 1957.

Seattle: Coldest February in 30 years, the 4th coldest in 75 years, the…

View original post 201 more words

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Weak El Niño possible this year…

    BoM: ENSO Wrap-Up
    Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans
    19 February 2019

    Tropical Pacific ENSO-neutral, but some recent warming observed

    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter, twice the normal likelihood.

    El Niño typically results in below average autumn and winter rainfall for southern and eastern Australia.

    Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed slightly in the past fortnight. In the sub-surface, weak warmth extends down to 175 m depth. Recent weakening of the trade winds in the western Pacific means that further warming of the equatorial Pacific is likely in the coming weeks to months.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

  2. oldbrew says:

    How ‘Adapt 2030’ sees it [30 sec. food ad. at ~1 min. in]


    – – –
    California – Snow too deep to plow
    February 17, 2019

    Skiers can’t reach resorts … 13½ feet (4.1 m) of snow this month alone … to the 15th of Feb … almost a foot a day. “Please stay home,” says sheriff.

    https://www.iceagenow.info/california-snow-too-deep-to-plow/

  3. oldbrew says:

    NASA report from 10 years ago…

    EVE: Measuring the Sun’s Hidden Variability
    September 22, 2009

    Measurements by a variety of spacecraft indicate a 12-year lessening of the sun’s “irradiance” by about 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths. These results, which compare the solar minimum of 2008-09 to the previous minimum of 1996, are still very preliminary. [bold added]

    https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sdo/news/sdo_eve.html


    – – –
    From NASA – September 7, 2011:
    The NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, was launched last year, and the three instruments aboard SDO are providing a wealth of data about the highly variable sun. [bold added]

    https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10817

  4. oldbrew says:

    NASA: Deep Solar Minimum
    04.01.2009

    “Since the Space Age began in the 1950s, solar activity has been generally high,” notes Hathaway. “Five of the ten most intense solar cycles on record have occurred in the last 50 years. We’re just not used to this kind of deep calm.” [bold added]

    https://web.archive.org/web/20091216015622/http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm
    [Note: access to this link is closed on NASA’s main website]

    Now we’ve got another one…

    Spotless Days [as per comment date]
    Current Stretch: 19 days
    2019 total: 33 days (66%)
    2018 total: 221 days (61%)
    2017 total: 104 days (28%)

    http://spaceweather.com/archive.php
    – – –
    Solar Wind Loses Power, Hits 50-year Low
    09.23.2008

    In a briefing today at NASA headquarters, solar physicists announced that the solar wind is losing power.

    “The average pressure of the solar wind has dropped more than 20% since the mid-1990s,” says Dave McComas of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. “This is the weakest it’s been since we began monitoring solar wind almost 50 years ago.”

    https://web.archive.org/web/20100111165004/http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/23sep_solarwind.htm

  5. oldbrew says:

    NOAA predicts sunspots to reach max in mid 2019 (July/August), then a decline until the end of 2022 where the forecast ends. [PRED = predicted]

    # —–Sunspot Number—— —-10.7 cm Radio Flux—-
    # YR MO PRED HIGH LOW PRED HIGH LOW
    #————————————————————–
    2018 08 4.4 5.4 3.4 69.8 70.8 68.8
    2018 09 4.7 6.7 2.7 69.5 70.5 68.5
    2018 10 5.1 8.1 2.1 69.2 71.2 67.2
    2018 11 5.1 10.1 0.1 68.8 71.8 65.8
    2018 12 4.9 9.9 0.0 68.2 72.2 64.2
    2019 01 5.0 11.0 0.0 67.6 71.6 63.6
    2019 02 5.2 12.2 0.0 67.2 72.2 62.2
    2019 03 5.4 12.4 0.0 66.7 72.7 60.7
    2019 04 5.6 13.6 0.0 66.3 73.3 60.0
    2019 05 5.7 14.7 0.0 65.7 73.7 60.0
    2019 06 5.8 14.8 0.0 65.2 73.2 60.0
    2019 07 5.9 15.9 0.0 64.5 73.5 60.0
    2019 08 5.7 15.7 0.0 63.9 72.9 60.0

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux
    – – –
    Wordpress formatting is a mess, see 4th column (starts with 5.4).

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