Where’s winter? Western Europe basks in record temperatures – but there’s a catch

Posted: February 26, 2019 by oldbrew in Natural Variation, Temperature, weather
Tags: ,

Credit: planetsave.com


This report more or less answers its own question, possibly without noticing that the answer given virtually rules out the presence of any particular trace gases in the atmosphere as a likely cause. ‘Hottest on record’ does not go back all that far anyway.

As western Europe enjoys record highs for winter temperatures, southern parts of the continent are being hit with snow flurries, reports Phys.org.

What is going on with the weather, and how closely are the topsy-turvy temperatures linked to climate change?

What’s causing the heat?

On Monday Britain saw its hottest winter day on record, with the mercury in the Welsh village of Trawsgoed hitting 20.6 Celsius (70 Fahrenheit).

It was, according to the Met Office, the first time that temperatures had exceeded 20C on the British mainland in winter.

“This is unprecedented… in Wales, 20.6C is like the middle of summer,” said Etienne Kapikian, a forecaster with the Meteo-France weather service.

On Tuesday the record was broken for a second time in as many days, with the Met Office reporting 20.8C in Porthmadog, Wales.

Several other local February temperature records fell in recent days, including 25C in Ourence, Spain, 21C at Pleyber-Christ, France, and 18.8C in Uccle, Belgium.

At the same time, temperatures plunged around the Mediterranean. At Thessaloniki in Greece, it hovered at around 3C and has even had snow. Northwest Turkey also saw wintry flurries.

The culprits, according to Kapikian, are areas of low pressure over the Atlantic and Eastern Europe, trapping warm air over the northwest of the continent.

“This low-pressure/high-pressure/low-pressure pattern is accompanied by north-south air mass exchanges,” said Kapikian.

As warmer air from southern Europe is dragged northwards, there is a corresponding flow of cold air pulled down from the Arctic, resulting in unusually low temperatures in the eastern Mediterranean.

Kapikian said the near-record warm spell would persist across much of the west of the continent until Wednesday.

Weather, or climate?

But where does weather end and climate begin?

Full report here.
– – –
Talkshop comment:

This is a well-known weather pattern. As the forecaster quoted above said:
“This low-pressure/high-pressure/low-pressure pattern is accompanied by north-south air mass exchanges”.

See the diagram below. It’s called an Omega block as meteorologist Jeff Haby explains here.
Quote: The Omega Block resembles the Greek letter Omega. The image below shows an example of this blocking pattern.


[Credit: Jeff Haby]

This is how it looked for UK/Western Europe (upward pointing arrow) earlier today:

So basically a warm southerly wind blew in from somewhere like Morocco.

Comments
  1. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    At the same time, temperatures plunged around the Mediterranean. At Thessaloniki in Greece, it hovered at around 3C and has even had snow. Northwest Turkey also saw wintry flurries.

    The culprits, according to Kapikian, are areas of low pressure over the Atlantic and Eastern Europe, trapping warm air over the northwest of the continent.

    “This low-pressure/high-pressure/low-pressure pattern is accompanied by north-south air mass exchanges,” said Kapikian.

    As warmer air from southern Europe is dragged northwards, there is a corresponding flow of cold air pulled down from the Arctic, resulting in unusually low temperatures in the eastern Mediterranean.

    As Piers Corbyn said before
    “these extremes are ALL the wrong type of extremes for the type of Jet-Stream circulation patterns which by necessity under standard meteorology must follow from so-called GlobalWarming. Instead of ‘Warming’ north shifted benign [zonal] JetStream patterns we have Wild [meridional] South [or Nth] shifted patterns which follow directly from the solar-lunar theory “

  2. Jaime Jessop says:

    Out walking today, it felt just like summer. Probably 24-25C in the sun. Absolutely remarkable. Don’t be surprised if this mini-heatwave in Feb is officially attributed to ‘climate change’ though. The temptation is too great.

  3. oldbrew says:

    They just need to explain how ‘climate change’ fitted into that inverted U (i.e. “Ω” = omega) on the graphic, while surrounding areas had snow and cooling.

    Good luck with that 😁
    – – –
    “We had a unusually very late summer last year, and now Spring has started very early,” said Dim Coumou, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2019-02-winter-western-europe-basks-temperatures.html

    Been to Greece or Turkey lately, Mr Dim? Thought not.


    Caption: While countries in western Europe experienced record high temperatures for February, Thessaloniki in Greece saw temperatures plunge and even snowfall

  4. oldbrew says:

    How’s that early spring going in the US southwest?

    Los Angeles, Las Vegas see rare snowfall as storm moves to Northeast, South for the weekend
    Feb.22, 2019

    Rare snow falls in California ahead of Oscars

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/los-angeles-las-vegas-rare-snow-storm-moves/story?id=61233100

  5. craigm350 says:

    Jaime – they’re already trying at the BBC.

    Today;

    Dr Friedericke Otto, acting director of the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University, said people were right to ask themselves whether the record temperatures were being driven by climate change.

    “I am very confident to say that there’s an element of climate change in these warm temperatures,” she said.

    “But climate change alone is not causing it. You have to have the right weather systems too.”

    BBC science editor David Shukman said scientists such as those at the Met Office were usually reluctant to link individual heatwaves, storms or floods directly to climate change without a specific study to prove it.

    But he said research had shown that events like last summer’s heatwave were made more likely by the rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47374936

    Yesterday;

    Caroline Lucas, the former leader of the Green Party, suggested the warm weather is linked to climate change.

    She said: “I like spending an afternoon in the sunshine as much as anyone, but it’s impossible to shake the feeling that this isn’t right.”

    Tom Burke, of the independent climate change think tank E3G, said extreme warm weather events were exactly what climate change experts said would happen if people continued to put carbon into the atmosphere.

    He said: “Temperatures are twice what they would normally be at this time of year.

    “Imagine if this was the summer and the temperature was twice what it would normally be, and you really begin to get an idea of how serious this problem could be.”

    Does climate change have a role?
    With new records for temperature being set, and everyone seemingly dazzled by the unexpected heat, the obvious question is whether climate change has a role?

    The usual answer is that no single heatwave, storm or flood can be directly connected to global warming, and that’s what the Met Office is saying now.

    “We’ve had the warmest day of winter on record,” says spokesman Grahame Madge, “and it does fit a pattern of warming.

    “But it would be simplistic to link this to climate change until a study has been carried out.”

    Previous research has shown how the odds of particular weather events – like last summer’s heatwave – have been made more likely because of the increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases heating up the atmosphere.

    And the projections for future global warming are clear that the kind of weather that feels strange now will appear normal in the decades ahead, as the underlying global average temperature rises.

    Met Office analysis of temperatures shows that British winters have become slightly milder over the past half century, a trend that’s set to continue.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47360952

    However, expect an official statistical analysis/study showing that yes it was your naughty SUV in 3, 2….

  6. oldbrew says:

    Previous research has shown how the odds of particular weather events – like last summer’s heatwave – have been made more likely because of the increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases heating up the atmosphere.

    Another dud. Iceland had its worst first half of summer for 100 years at the same time the UK was in its 2018 sunny spell.

    Iceland’s greyest, wettest summer since 1914 can be blamed on the UK heat wave, says Icelandic meteorologist Trausti Jonsson.

    “The people of Reykjavík are paying for the sunshine in England and southern Scandinavia,” said Jonsson, thanks to high pressure over western Europe changing the jet stream and pushing clouds over the north of the continent.

    https://www.iceagenow.info/iceland-enduring-the-worst-summer-for-100-years/

    Another blocking pattern of course, but alarmists hate to mention that, or are ignorant of it.

  7. ivan says:

    And there was I wondering where all the gobul warming had got to – we have been having 2 or 3 degrees C at night down her in the south of France.

  8. oldbrew says:

    Cyprus records second heaviest rainy season since 1901
    February 26, 2019

    https://watchers.news/2019/02/26/cyprus-records-fourth-heaviest-rainy-season-since-1901/
    – – –
    European monthly rainfall record broken in Crete, major floods destroy historic bridge of Keritis, Greece
    February 26, 2019

    https://watchers.news/2019/02/26/european-monthly-rainfall-record-broken-in-crete-major-floods-destroy-historic-bridge-of-keritis-greece/

  9. stpaulchuck says:

    Come to Minnesota. We’ll gladly share some “winter” with you!

  10. Stephen Richards says:

    Jaime Jessop says:
    February 26, 2019 at 6:39 pm

    Hello Jaime

    Good to see you are still around. How’s the house move gone?

    Richard Coeur de Lion Banned from twitter for accusing a UK MP of backstabbing the british.

  11. Saighdear says:

    Hmmm, High perceived ( air / Stevenson screen ) temps, maybe – but the cows are not lying down – the SOIL is too cold – still frosty cold at night / very heavy dews and remains damp all day – condensation. we see it on the open workshop concrete floor.
    And of last night – climate change caused the Yorkshire Moors fires? !!! Really? What was the temperature recorded there? Moor fires in the winter is nothing new ( Controlled burn) – burnt as vegetation clearance, etc – but no Lightning storm, NO great length of HOT strong sunshine – but a fire started. I’m not going to state the obvious.

  12. Stephen Richards says:

    ivan says:
    February 26, 2019 at 10:46 pm
    And there was I wondering where all the gobul warming had got to – we have been having 2 or 3 degrees C at night down her in the south of France.

    We have been having frost locally in West central France but the days have been like most Februarys. We nearly always get a very sunny February but some years cold some years warm. However, every spring for the last 7 has been cold and wet. I’m going to by my veg plants this Friday but they won’t be planted out until april.

  13. Jaime Jessop says:

    Hi Stephen. Richard too now. They’ll ban us all eventually. I suspect a disgruntled MP was instrumental in getting me banned too.

  14. Jaime Jessop says:

    House move was fine by the way, except them wanting to move their stuff in before the funds had cleared and our mortgage had been paid off! Now settling in to temporary accommodation, looking for somewhere permanent.

  15. dennisambler says:

    Where does the heat go at night?

  16. oldbrew says:

    Where does the heat go at night?

    Maybe something like this…

  17. craigm350 says:

    Ooooh what are the odds it’s not the null hypothesis?

  18. oldbrew says:

    While Greece and Turkey get snowfalls…

  19. Saighdear says:

    Well look at this way – around 17C between New Year and Christmas ( Looking back to the early 80’s) when we experienced that in Scotland, and it takes around 8 weeks o f progression through the Year to gain another 3-5 Celsius degrees of temp. in the day – or Night temps – whats wrong with that?
    Seems typical of “townee greenies” who have just switched on a wireless thermometer …..

  20. Gamecock says:

    Where’s winter? Southeastern U.S.

    Worst damn winter in 10 years.

  21. oldbrew says:

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