Henrik Svensmark: FORCE MAJEURE The Sun’s Role in Climate Change

Posted: March 19, 2019 by oldbrew in Analysis, cosmic rays, opinion, solar system dynamics
Tags: , ,

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The author writes in his 40-page document: ‘This report is not meant to be an exhaustive representation of all the published papers related to a solar influence on Earth’s climate, but aims to give a clear presentation of the current knowledge on the link between solar activity and climate.’

Where does cosmic ray variation fit into the ‘big picture’ of solar influences on the Earth?

The Next Grand Minimum

I am still studying this paper but wanted to share and get your feedback

Executive Summary

Over the last twenty years there has been good progress in understanding the solar influ- ence on climate. In particular, many scientific studies have shown that changes in solar activ- ity have impacted climate over the whole Holocene period (approximately the last 10,000 years). A well-known example is the existence of high solar activity during the Medieval Warm Period, around the year 1000 AD, and the subsequent low levels of solar activity during the cold period, now called The Little Ice Age (1300–1850 AD). An important scientific task has been to quantify the solar impact on climate, and it has been found that over the eleven- year solar cycle the energy that enters the Earth’s system is of the order of 1.0–1.5 W/m2. This is nearly an order of magnitude larger than what would be…

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Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    FORCE MAJEURE
    The Sun’s Role in Climate Change
    Henrik Svensmark

    https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/03/SvensmarkSolar2019-1.pdf
    Copyright 2019
    The Global Warming Policy Foundation
    GWPF Report 33

  2. stpaulchuck says:

    “is of the order of 1.0–1.5 W/m2”

    I believe there’s a typo in there. After reading the whole thing I believe that is the delta rather than the actual. I believe that (in part) is should have read, “the change is of the order of 1.0–1.5 W/m2”. The best number I can come up with for median solar radiation at the surface is about 250w/m2. And that is not taking clouds into effect.

    [here’s an exercise: search for watts per square meter of solar radiation at the Earth’s surface. I’ve never seen so much tap dancing in numbers before! It’s a simple empirical question. Not.]

  3. Stephen Richards says:

    “change in the order of” = delta does it not ?

  4. stpaulchuck says:

    the whole phrase used was:

    “… and it has been found that over the eleven- year solar cycle the energy that enters the Earth’s system is of the order of 1.0–1.5 W/m2.” [emphasis is mine]

    so as it stands he says the solar input is one to one-point-five W/m2 while surface measurements averaged across the Earth’s surface seem to be 250 W/m2.

    Been there done that when in a bit of a hurry in writing up an article or somewhat longer post or reply, so I’m not throwing rocks, merely pointing out the (apparently) incorrect phrasing.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Svensmark appears to be talking about the ‘forcing’ element (or variation) of solar input when referring to ‘1.0–1.5 W/m2’. In the document he says:

    Contrary to the consensus described above, there is abundant empirical evidence that the Sun has had a large influence on climate over the Holocene period, with temperature changes between periods of low and high solar activity of the order of 1–2 K.
    . . .
    A telling result is given by the energy that enters the oceans over the 11-year solar cycle, which is almost an order of magnitude larger (∼1–1.5 W/m2) than the corresponding TSI variation (∼0.2 W/m2). Solar activity is somehow being amplified relative to the TSI variations by a mechanism other than TSI.
    [bold added]

    English is not his native language.
    – – –
    Re: ‘Solar activity is somehow being amplified relative to the TSI variations by a mechanism other than TSI’

    Maybe we don’t need to look very far for at least one candidate that?

    Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) is solar radiation that covers the wavelengths 10 – 120 nm of the electromagnetic spectrum. It is highly energetic and it is absorbed in the upper atmosphere, which not only heats the upper atmosphere but also ionizes it, creating the ionosphere. Solar EUV radiation changes by a factor of ten over the course of a typical solar cycle. This variability produces similar variations in the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. [bold added]

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-euv-irradiance

    Svensmark says:
    Three main theories have been put forward to explain the solar–climate link, which are:
    • solar ultraviolet changes
    • the atmospheric-electric-field effect on cloud cover
    • cloud changes produced by solar-modulated galactic cosmic rays (energetic particles
    originating from inter stellar space and ending in our atmosphere).

  6. oldbrew says:

    Cosmic ray input to lightning?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrestrial_gamma-ray_flash#Mechanism

    Caption: ‘Terrestrial gamma-ray flash production as might be locally associated with lightning. The strong electric fields that drive production may be associated with the storm or the lightning channel itself.’

  7. oldbrew says:

    Re. comment above…

    Mar 23, 2019, 04:59am
    Cosmic Ray Hunters Spy Record-Breaking 1.3-Billion-Volt Thunderstorm

    Thunderstorms are always high-voltage creations, but this one is a record-breaker – ten times larger than the second-most high-voltage thunderstorm on record

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/robinandrews/2019/03/23/cosmic-ray-hunters-spy-record-breaking-1-3-billion-volt-thunderstorm/

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