The Long March To #Brexit : Current analysis

Posted: March 24, 2019 by tallbloke in Brexit, EU Referendum, government, People power, Philosophy, Politics, Treason
Tags: ,

I’ve been on the March To Leave for a week, and just got a day off to visit family and give my plates of meat a rest. I’m back on the march tomorrow, so no time for a big write up yet. Here is my simple summary, as delivered to ITN news two days ago, and below, some more complex analysis of the current situation from Simon Pearson on twitter

4. Which means EU dates become irrelevant and we still leave on 29 March.
5. Unless, that is, Remainers sieze control of Govt business from the back benches and across party?
6. But can they? To stop UK leaving on 29 March requires primary legislation – it is the law if the land.

7. To do so would set a precedent effectively trashing 400 years of parliamentary democracy. Unwise.
8. The Conservatives must have finally realised two key facts…the WA is truly dead and …
9. To force it through as a Fake Brexit, pro-EU, Remain Minus, German-written, tribute-paying, vassal-state, Union-breaking, for absolutely nothing in return, would incur electoral oblivion from their own members & the rest of the country.
10. What is the first duty of the party?
11. To get re-elected.
12. So they have a binary choice now, as does the country. Leave or Remain. Leave on WTO in 5 days or Revoke A50.
13. Every other option less than leaving on WTO boils down to (effectively) remaining or worse.
14. All the other options short of Remaining (or worse) are fantasy cherry picks which the EU will not accept.
15. All these other options, except revoking A50, are ONLY available AFTER the WA is signed. (Ask the EU – but this is the case)
16. So, if WA is dead, and it is, the whole indicative votes farrago is pointless. They have already all been proposed and rejected as amendments anyway.
17. Therefore we have either WTO or Revoke A50.
18. Revoking A50 is Parliament versus the People…
19. Revoking A50 tells not only 17.4 million people that their votes are worthless, but tells the entire electorate that if, in future, they don’t vote for what the EU masters want then the ruling technocrats have the right to ignore them again. And again. And again.
20. And how do we think revocation might play out in the UK? Not well I suspect. Possibly in Civil War. 
21. But regardless it will be the end of the Conservative party.
22. So the Conservatives can only conclude that their best option is WTO (by stealth).
23. If their analysis is any good they will finally have realised that 17.5 to 19 million voters are not going away. 
24. They can win these voters instantly to the Conservative cause by going for WTO. The alternative is end of party.
25. It very odd but we have 500 odd MPs and the entire MSM all fighting to woo the Blairites – because that’s what they all are.
26. The loudest voices are the Soubry, Adonis, Umuna, Starmer, Elwood brigade. They and MSM (and TM) all inhabit the same thought space.
27. What they have in common is they that are all despised by Leave voters of every hue.
28. The UK is an amazing, wonderful, resilient, law-abiding nation full of opportunity for people of any and every background and identity.
29. Economists, and their forecasts, are always very wrong, sometimes 100% (500k unemployed vs 500k more employed) because they don’t understand what it is to be “a nation of shop keepers” (that so annoyed Napoleon).
30. British business will always thrive if free to do so.
31. But it’s not about the money…
32. It is about taking our place in the world alongside first tier non-superpower nations such as Japan, Australia and Canada.
33. It is about rejecting being the naughty child cash cow trading colony of the EU superstate project.
34. So…all May has to do is nothing until Friday.
35. WTO will be disruptive of course, but it won’t be Armageddon.
36. A mutually beneficial FTA with the EU will undoubtedly follow rapidly, along with fair payment for membership cancellation.
37. You made it this far? Well done. 
38. Ladies and gentlemen I commend to you all of the above course of action.
39. It is the only one to respect the vote, save democracy, avoid chaos, provide business certainty, save the Conservative Party and keep the U in UK 🇬🇧and G in GB.

Comments
  1. pyromancer76 says:

    Thank you for your summary and your efforts — and this blog. I only hope for freedom and the best outcome for citizens of a beloved country where some of my ancestors also worked hard for prosperity and freedom.

  2. SasjaL says:

    From my point of view as a non UK citizen, the ‘PM’ Theresa May is not the correct person in charge of Brexit, as she oppose it and will stall as much as possible. A competent leader would have fixed it already …

  3. Damian says:

    During our Independence campaign (Scotland) people (politicians mainly) came up to Scotland to tell us that we were a financial basket case who were incapable of managing anything, let alone our own country and that if we voted for Independence, Scotland would be back to the stone age within a few months.
    Now these same people are saying the same thing about their own country as a reason for staying in the EU.
    It is almost as if the Scottish Independent campaign was a test run for the EU referendum. Exactly the same lies have been peddled as we were subject to during the Independence campaign.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Re: ‘extensions to 12 Apr or 22 May’

    Last day of UK Parliament business before the Easter recess is Thursday 4th April.
    https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/

    Footnote says: *The dates for Easter recess have been proposed but have not yet been confirmed by the House of Commons.

    So if MPs want to haggle in their holidays they can in theory have a shortened recess, if it’s not too late to alter the official date(s).
    – – –
    Andrea Leadsom fails to guarantee MPs’ Easter break
    21 February 2019

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47320481

    ‘The Chief Whip has reminded Conservative MPs that there may not be an Easter recess.’
    6 March 2019

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6778497/MPs-holidays-cancelled-amid-fears-Brexit-force-work-Easter.html
    – – –
    Bottom line: sink MV3 and keep your holidays 🙂

  5. Richards says:

    Like your report Roger. I hope the french don’t stop you at the border after brexit 🙂

  6. Stephen Richards says:

    The snivelling pro EU marchers in London clearly haven’t read about our Gilet Jaunes. Truly brave people prepared to be maimed and seriously injured to defend their country again the tyranny of the globalists in Paris and Brussels.

    They should ask themselves why they are moving in the opposite direction to the rest of europe and the EU.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Timetable for next week plus a bit more…

    ITV REPORT 24 March 2019 at 10:12am
    Brexit latest: What could happen next week and beyond?

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-24/brexit-what-is-happening-next-week-and-beyond/

    Includes this:
    Tuesday March 26
    Possible date for the third “meaningful vote” – known in Westminster as MV3 – on Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement.

    Downing Street said no date has yet been fixed for the vote, which must come by the end of the week.

    Unless the Speaker vetoes it 🤔

    ‘What the government cannot do’…[starts after 9m.15s.]

  8. BoyfromTottenham says:

    Bravo, Roger. As an expat Pom in Oz I am angry at the shambolic and dare I say treacherous attempts by a clique of short-sighted, morally degenerate politicians to manipulate Britain to Remain in the undemocratic and totalitarian EU. What Shakespeare would have done with this moment in British history! When Brexit happens, there has to be great purge of these Quislings so that the Brits can once again be proud of their country and its once-great political system. I wish you all the best of British luck! Keep buggering on!

  9. tallbloke says:

    In the interview I did with BBC Look North a few days back, I told the interviewer that May had made a critical error.

    When the EU said they wouldn’t extend unless her deal passed, she should have told them that without re-opening the WA, removing the backstop, agreeing the supremacy of UK common law and resolving other matters, speaker Bercow would be unlikely to deem sufficient change and the ERG wouldn’t be likely to vote it through and we’d leave on 29th on WTO terms.

    Instead, she kowtowed to Tusk and blamed her own MPs.

  10. oldbrew says:

    So it looks like the same failed WA will be put forward (if it is put forward), but with different consequences if MPs reject it again?

    Whether the Speaker could call that ‘not substantially the same’ deal as before seems debatable. If it’s true he favours remain, he’s got a problem as a refusal opens the way to an ‘accidental’ no deal, unless the EU changes its tune at the last minute (by consenting to the short A.50 extension anyway).

    But the sands seem to shift every week so who knows.

  11. donald penman says:

    I am going to try and be there in parliament square on the 29th of march to support you, it is very hard living in lincoln getting there but i think i have worked out the best way of getting there with my work commitments and budget. I am looking forward to being there and i hope we will have more people there then we had on Saturday for remain.

  12. here’s another comment to consign to your overflowing bin of posts you have destroyed of mine!

    Lies were told during the first vote
    The consequences of leaving the EU were not understood.

    Now these and more are known what is wrong with allowing the populous to vote on real data? What is wrong with the new young voters being allowed to have some control ofr their future?

    There is always the possibility that you may win. What are you afraid of?

  13. Gamecock says:

    ‘The revolution will not be televised.’ – Gil Scot-Heron

  14. hunterson7 says:

    My heart breaks for Britain.

  15. Adam Gallon says:

    Lies were told by both Leave & Remain.
    Both ran lousy campaigns, Leave won because theyre lousy campaign, wasn’t as lousy as Remain’s. I wonder how many Leave votes the input of Geldorf, Bliar & Obama garnered.
    The consequences of leaving the EU were understood.
    The fact that Parliament is royally screwing it up, by not going down the only viable exit route, via Efta & the EEA, simply shows that they aren’t fit for purpose.

  16. Fred Streeter says:

    @thefordprefect

    When we were given the chance to vote on joining the “Common Market”, I voted “Yes”.

    Had we been given the same opportunity to vote on joining the EU, I would have voted “No”.

    Given the opportunity in 2016, I voted “No” based upon my analysis of the nature of the EU, Talking Heads, whether truthful or lying, were ignored.

    Those who had the opportunity to vote but did not, assuming that “Yes” was a forgone conclusion are too immature, to be given a second chance.

  17. oldbrew says:

    The vote was to leave the EU. No ifs or buts.

  18. Graeme No.3 says:

    Looking on from afar I get the impression that your politicians couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery. They, and the EU, have reduced the vote to
    Remain using the conditions unacceptable even to most Remainers or
    Leave and negoiate later.

    And still they are arguing.
    Good luck on the 29TH. of March.

  19. Gamecock says:

    True, oldbrew. There is no ‘deal’ in Brexit.

  20. I would like to be there myself on the 29th, but unfortunately i want to be home when my septic tank is emptied. I could perhaps tell the tanker driver to carry on to Westminster where there is a mass of crap waiting to be removed and suitably disposed of.

  21. oldbrew says:

    Nomination for a Brexit theme tune…

  22. tom0mason says:

    The elites of Europe not being satisfied with the defeat on the first vote resubmitted Article 13, Internet Restrictions and Copyright law back to a successful vote. EU Parliament voted for dreaded Article 13 copyright directive by 348 to 274 votes.

    This may mean site such as yours, Tallbloke, will be affected by these changes in law!.

    The new online rules are controversial as it will make online platforms legally responsible for all of the copyright content they host. It will be a complete nightmare for the likes of YouTube and others.

    This could result in online platforms using upload filters to ensure nothing that is copyrighted is allowed to be uploaded full stop. It will stifle creativity and could change the internet as we know it.
    It apparently could mean that ALL content has to be filtered coming in and going out of the EU area!

    Today the proposal went through by 348 to 274 votes in the European Parliament.

  23. oldbrew says:

    I’ve already come across US websites putting up notices saying no EU access to their content, but that’s been going on for months at least :/

    GDPR >> https://gdpr-info.eu/

    451: Unavailable due to legal reasons
    We recognize you are attempting to access this website from a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at this time. For any issues, contact jspitz@tucson.com or call 800-695-4492.

    https://tucson.com/business/tep-gets-approval-to-install-natural-gas-engines-despite-environmentalists/article_bf6aab65-a6bc-5bc7-9b50-64bffb6ebfe4.html

  24. Annie says:

    Thankyou Roger Tallbloke.

  25. thank you for allowing my last post!

    oldbrew says: March 25, 2019 at 6:07 pm
    The vote was to leave the EU. No ifs or buts.
    ——————-
    What!!
    You call 52% t0 48% a result of “No ifs or buts”!!!
    To all intents and purposes the result like this leaves nearly half the population angered. It is a “win” for one side numerically but it is a draw in reality.

    Did the “march” actually reach London?, many 100s of thousands remainers certainly did.
    or is this FAKE news?
    A petition requesting revoking of article 50 has nearly reached an unprecedented 6 million resposes. Even allowing for half these to be invalid it is still a significant response.

    All this just to allow UK to have our bent bananas,100watt thermal light bulbs,,2kw vacuum cleaners, etc.
    Or is it the fact we will be able to ignore the european human rights laws?

  26. oldbrew says:

    You call 52% to 48% a result of “No ifs or buts”!!!

    The majority i.e. winning vote was to leave the EU, not to remain 48% (or any other percent) tied to its rules, laws etc.

    If the result had gone the other way, leave voters would have got precisely nothing – and to date that’s still how things stand, 3 years later.

  27. Gamecock says:

    You are a [snip – mod], thefordprefect.

    What would the leave percentage need to have been for leave to have actually won?

    “this leaves nearly half the population angered”

    ANGERED? You lie. You project YOUR MENTAL PROBLEMS on others.

    [reply] take it easy, we don’t want shouting matches here 🙂

  28. Gamecock says: March 28, 2019 at 12:19 am
    ———————
    I was suggesting that the statement
    “The vote was to leave the EU. No ifs or buts.” was not true I admitted that it was numerically a win.

    However so many lies (both sides) were told, So much illegal spending on campaigns, and so much chest thumping, and even possibly vote rigging that the population was incapable of hearing industry, food empires, legal drug barons etc who said that it will cost uk dear.

    Just in time deliveries will be difficult imperiled by customs.
    imported food (most of what we use at this time of the year is imported – unless you exist on turnips and potatoes) will cost more. And if held up in customs may even perish.
    Drugs are mainly imported.
    A number of companies have pulled out of UK. Why?

    Now the truth has been heard, it is time for the people to decide what they really want, surely this is democracy in action?

  29. oldbrew says:

    Cancel Brexit or the fresh veg gets it? That won’t fly.

  30. oldbrew says:

  31. oldbrew says:

    Tired of ‘rainbow-chasing’ anti-Brexit MPs? An alternative view…

  32. Gamecock says:

    “However so many lies (both sides) were told, So much illegal spending on campaigns, and so much chest thumping, and even possibly vote rigging that the population was incapable of hearing industry, food empires, legal drug barons etc who said that it will cost uk dear.”

    Completely bogus. Votes are always based on people’s IMPERFECT understanding. The idea that “if they actually understood, they would have voted no,” is a fabrication. Pure sophistry. I would argue the opposite: if people understood, Remain would have failed miserably.

  33. johnm33 says:

    The Slog is always worth a read, one of his regular commenters makes an interesting suggestion. First comment, bottom of page. https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/03/26/brexit-anarchy-how-lies-short-memories-and-apathy-killed-a-dream/

  34. oldbrew says:

    Booker signs off.

    CHRISTOPHER BOOKER: MY LAST COLUMN AFTER 60 WONDERFUL YEARS
    Date: 31/03/19 Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph

    And now, to add to all this, we watch aghast at how our infantilised politicians are sleepwalking us towards disaster over Brexit. It was way back in the Nineties, long before it was fashionable, that I first began using the term “the Westminster bubble” to describe how our political class had begun to cut itself off from the real world into a self-regarding little world of its own.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/christopher-booker-my-last-column-after-60-wonderful-years/

  35. johnm33 says:

    The political parties have all been colonised by careerist operators, talentless unless hubris is a talent, and tina idealogues to boot. The boot is what they should get.

  36. tallbloke says:

    Ford: Welsh Devolution was carried through on 50.5%. They didn’t decide to do half a devolution.

    OB: Theme tune for Brexit…

    “You can stick your flag with stars on up your arse
    You can stick your flag with stars on up your arse
    You can stick your flag with stars on, stick your flag with stars on
    Stick your flag with stars on up your arse”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s