Climatologist: Why so many tornadoes this year? Not what some may think

Posted: May 29, 2019 by oldbrew in alarmism, atmosphere, climate, Natural Variation, weather, wind
Tags:

Kansas tornado [image credit: Wikipedia]


Politicians keen to promote climate alarm run the risk of embarrassing themselves when pronouncing on random weather events.

H/T Climate Change Dispatch

With destructive tornadoes comes climate alarmism, so it’s useful to know why so-called global warming would produce fewer – not more – cyclonic events, says Dr Roy Spencer.

Progressive politicians like Al Gore, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D.-N.Y., don’t hesitate to blame any kind of severe weather – even if it is decreasing over time – on global warming.

With the devastating Dayton, Ohio, tornadoes fresh on our minds, it is useful to examine exactly why (modest) global warming has produced fewer – not more – of such events.

The simple answer is that tornado formation requires unusually cool air.

Very few thunderstorms produce tornadoes. In the hot and humid tropics, they are virtually unheard of.

The reason why is that (unlike hurricanes) tornadoes require strong wind shear, which means wind speed increasing and changing direction with height in the lower atmosphere.

These conditions exist only when a cool air mass collides with a warm air mass. And the perfect conditions for this have existed this year as winter has refused to lose its grip on the western United States.

So far for the month of May 2019, the average temperature across the U.S. is close to 2 degrees Fahrenheit below normal.

Every year, springtime thunderstorms in the Central and Southeast U.S. have plenty of warm, moist air to draw on from the Gulf of Mexico.

What they generally don’t have is a persistent cold air mass producing strong wind shear at the boundary between a warm and cold air mass.

Continued here.

Comments
  1. JB says:

    We thought we were had last night. What appeared to be an F3 that swept through Lawrence and Linwood Kansas last night, sure looked like it was done–until it came back to life in Missouri and headed right for us. We cowered and literally were sweating in our basement bathroom waiting for the freight train rumble. It must have lost ground connection just as it passed by about a ½ mile away. We’re still waiting for the media to catch up the details. With some roads closed its hard for locals to get up to speed on what happened.

    The weird thing is it went straight on to where my daughter lives, and her mother just happened be visiting. I confess a certain satisfaction in having the EX get the bejezus scared out of her with her first tornado! This thing started and ended in communities where we knew quite a number of people, and the track seemed to have our names written into it. These giants are just a fact of life in the Midwest, and I’ve seen a number of them come close.

    I’ve always figured it was just a matter of odds before it was our turn. In the past, the weather patterns have always pushed these beasts through the most unpopulated areas. But lately with the shift in the arctic pressure front they’ve been hitting cities and towns, right and left.

  2. oldbrew says:

    Scary stuff, JB.

    After Several Quiet Years, Tornadoes Erupt in United States
    By Associated Press, Wire Service Content May 29, 2019

    After several quiet years, tornadoes have erupted in the United States over the last two weeks as a volatile mix of warm, moist air from the Southeast and persistent cold from the Rockies clashed and stalled over the Midwest.

    On Monday, the U.S. tied its current record of 11 consecutive days with at least eight tornadoes confirmed on each of those days, said Patrick Marsh, warning coordination meteorologist for the federal Storm Prediction Center. The previous 11-day stretch of at least eight tornadoes per day ended on June 7, 1980.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2019-05-28/after-several-quiet-years-tornadoes-erupt-in-united-states

  3. […] via Climatologist: Why so many tornadoes this year? Not what some may think — Tallbloke’s Talksh… […]

  4. oldbrew says:

    Debunked: Media claim rare tornado outbreak is ‘new normal’
    By CFACT |May 29th, 2019

    https://www.cfact.org/2019/05/29/debunked-media-claim-rare-tornado-outbreak-is-new-normal/
    – – –
    Media climate alarmism is the new normal 😆

  5. JB says:

    When we moved to the Midwest 20 yrs ago, we took tornado spotter classes to better understand how to cope with them. Part of that instruction detailed how cyclical tornado activity is, both seasonally and historically (niño/niña). Thus, we never thought for a minute their appearance was governed by anything but normal planetary climate ebb and flow. I’ve never met anyone involved in spotting who thought they were caused by Man mistreating the planet (tho there probably are a few). Discovering the Talkshop has helped clarify the link between the local weather reporting and solar system dynamics on these “acts of God.”

  6. oldbrew says:

  7. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:

    There’s no clear link between global warming and tornadoes. But in terms of twisters that upend homes and lives, a review published in October in the journal Nature adds insight.

    Notorious “Tornado Alley” — the band of states in the central United States, including Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, that each spring are ravaged by hundreds of tornadoes — is not disappearing. But it seems to be expanding to include more of the Midwest and the Southeast’s “Dixie Alley,” a term coined in 1971.

    That means a higher frequency of tornadoes in Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Kentucky and eastern Missouri.

    https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article230790399.html

    [1974 was] the most violent tornado outbreak ever recorded (as of 2019), with 30 F4/F5 tornadoes confirmed. From April 3 to 4, 1974, there were 148 tornadoes confirmed in 13 U.S. states and the Canadian province of Ontario.[nb 1] In the United States, tornadoes struck Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and New York. The outbreak caused roughly $843 million USD (~equivalent to $4.58 billion in 2019) with more than $600 million (~equivalent to $3.3 billion in 2019) in damage occurring in the United States. The outbreak extensively damaged approximately 900 sq mi (2,331 km2) along a total combined path length of 2,600 mi (4,184 km).[1][2] At one point, as many as 15 separate tornadoes were on the ground simultaneously.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Super_Outbreak

    Clearly we must now protest and chant I want you all to panic! so we can give up our cash and liberties so we can control tornadoes.

  8. ren says:

    A cold jet causes floods in the Mississippi valley.

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