A Sunspot from the Next Solar Cycle

Posted: July 11, 2019 by oldbrew in Astronomy, Solar physics

The transition from solar cycle 24 to 25 is…out there somewhere. But it seems AR2744 is likely to become known as ‘the first official sunspot of Solar Cycle 25.’


July 8, 2019: Solar Cycle 25 is coming to life. For the second time this month, a sunspot from the next solar cycle has emerged in the sun’s southern hemisphere. Numbered “AR2744”, it is inset in this magnetic map of the sun’s surface from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:

How do we know this sunspot belongs to Solar Cycle 25? Its magnetic polarity tells us so. Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale’s Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. AR2744 is therefore a member of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar cycles always mix together at their boundaries. Right now we are experiencing the tail end of decaying Solar Cycle 24. AR2744 shows that we are simultaneously experiencing the first stirrings of Solar Cycle 25. The transition between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle…

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  1. tallbloke says:

    Welcome back OB. I think cycle 25 might ramp up sooner than expected by most commentators. We shall see.

  2. oldbrew says:

    Thanks TB. Right on cue we have this…

    Solar weather has real, material effects on Earth
    by Michael Batu, The Conversation


  3. oldbrew says:

    July 2019 El Niño update: I think I’ll go for a walk
    Author: Emily Becker
    July 11, 2019

    El Niño is hanging on by its fingernails, but forecasters predict this event will wind down within the next couple of months. It’s likely that the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface will return to near-average soon, qualifying for “ENSO-neutral” conditions. Neutral conditions are favored to remain through the fall and winter.

    All in all, El Niño is still present, but just barely.

    – – –
    Nothing to see here, move along please 🙂

  4. Miles Mathis says that cycle 25 started last year and that he predicted the starting date back in 2014 see http://milesmathis.com/updates.html. Rodger and OB I think you will find this interesting NEW PAPER, added 4/29/19, Solar Cycles Confirmed. The Fourmilab app allows us to confirm that Solar Cycles are caused by planetary alignments and charge returning to the Sun from the planets.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Well, there are any number of theories about solar cycles and everyone naturally favours evidence that tends to support their own one. (I’ve seen MM’s paper before).

    Which is not to say none of them have merit, but logically they can’t all be right :/