Roy Spencer – July 2019 was not the warmest on record

Posted: August 2, 2019 by oldbrew in Measurement, opinion, Temperature, UHI

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A way of getting around some of the questionable data manipulations in vogue at present is proposed. Whether it would appeal to the ‘offenders’, so to speak, is another matter.

July 2019 was probably the 4th warmest of the last 41 years, writes Dr. Roy Spencer.

Global “reanalysis” datasets need to start being used for monitoring of global surface temperatures.

We are now seeing news reports (e.g. CNN, BBC, Reuters) that July 2019 was the hottest month on record for global average surface air temperatures.

One would think that the very best data would be used to make this assessment. After all, it comes from official government sources (such as NOAA, and the World Meteorological Organization [WMO]).

But current official pronouncements of global temperature records come from a fairly limited and error-prone array of thermometers which were never intended to measure global temperature trends.

The global surface thermometer network has three major problems when it comes to getting global-average temperatures:

(1) The urban heat island (UHI) effect has caused a gradual warming of most land thermometer sites due to encroachment of buildings, parking lots, air conditioning units, vehicles, etc. These effects are localized, not indicative of most of the global land surface (which remains most rural), and not caused by increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Because UHI warming “looks like” global warming, it is difficult to remove from the data. In fact, NOAA’s efforts to make UHI-contaminated data look like rural data seems to have had the opposite effect. The best strategy would be to simply use only the best (most rural) sited thermometers. This is currently not done.

(2) Ocean temperatures are notoriously uncertain due to changing temperature measurement technologies (canvas buckets thrown overboard to get a sea surface temperature sample long ago, ship engine water intake temperatures more recently, buoys, satellite measurements only since about 1983, etc.)

(3) Both land and ocean temperatures are notoriously incomplete geographically. How does one estimate temperatures in a 1 million square mile area where no measurements exist?

There’s a better way.

Continued here.

  1. ozymandiasssss says:

    I look at Climate Reanalyzer every day and in June and July it never got over +.3. I don’t understand how these temperature variations occur. This is supposed to be science.

  2. oldbrew says:

    Re: Global “reanalysis” datasets need to start being used for monitoring of global surface temperatures.

    NOAA says: The Climate Reanalyzer

    This interactive visualization is a suite of weather and climate datasets as well as tools with which to manipulate and display them visually.

    Go To:

  3. Phoenix44 says:

    There is no longer any real pretence at reality or truth amongst many of these organisations. They “know” it was the warmest because Climate Change, and even if it wasn’t actually so what? It has nothing to do with science, this is activism, pure and simple.

  4. oldbrew says:

    From Babylonbee (‘all the fake news you can trust’):

    Experts Warn We Have Only 12 Years Left Until They Change The Timeline On Global Warming Again
    August 1st, 2019

    “Should we not change our ways, our old predictions will melt, dangerously raising the chance of us having to move the goalposts again,” said Al Gore. “Do you really want me to write another book, film another movie, and go on another tour in my private jet just because you dingbats couldn’t be bothered to alter your lifestyles? I don’t think so. Let’s all get on board with this 12-year figure, or we’ll have to push back the date again.”

  5. oldbrew says:

  6. stpaulchuck says:

    oldbrew says:
    August 3, 2019 at 1:46 pm
    I have to wonder if the Atlantic spreading and other tectonic movement isn’t a tidal effect of the gas giants’ periodic alignment. We’ve seen several papers recently on the apparent coincidence of a number of macro events that seem to be synced with the alignment.

    I think Scafetta pointed the way with his paper on planetary and extra solar system influences and other influences such as cosmic rays as studied and written by others.
    ‘Testing An Astronomically Based Decadal-Scale Empirical Harmonic Climate Model vs. The IPCC (2007) General Circulation Climate Models’ by Nicola Scafetta, PhD

    Click to access astronomical_harmonics.pdf

  7. oldbrew says:

    Re. Scafetta

    Scafetta & Mazzarella: Spectral coherence between climate oscillations and the M ≥ 7 earthquake historical worldwide record

    Our results suggest that large earthquakes are triggered by crust deformations induced by, and/or linked to climatic and oceanic oscillations induced by astronomical forcings, which also regulate the LOD.