Hurricanes

Posted: August 18, 2019 by oldbrew in alarmism, Natural Variation, weather, wind
Tags: ,

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A timely reminder that the hysterical hurricane hype season could be about to start. The peak period for Atlantic hurricanes is early-to-mid September on average, but so far this year not much has happened.

[Click on ‘view original post’ below for the video]

PA Pundits - International

From the team at CFACT ~

By Mark Mathis of The Clear Energy Alliance ~

Hurricane season is here. And with climate change, the storms are more frequent and stronger… except… they aren’t. The fact is, the media and climate change campaigners have been lying to you. Why is that?

CFACT’s Marc Morano explains.

The Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) defends the environment and human welfare through facts, news, and analysis.

Read more excellent articles at CFACT  http://www.cfact.org/

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Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    NOAA is betting on action soon…

    Published August 08, 2019
    2019 Atlantic hurricane season now favors ‘above-normal’ activity, with 10-17 named storms, NOAA says

    NOAA forecasters are now calling for 10-17 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, of which five to nine could strengthen into hurricanes. Of those storms, there will be two to four major hurricanes, which are classified as Category 3, 4, and 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-season-forecast-above-normal-activity-storms.amp

    These predictions will be tested in the next few weeks.

  2. […] über Hurricanes — Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]

  3. MrGrimNasty says:

    On the BBC news channel the BBC weather man/news presenter handover has now become a well rehearsed climate change propaganda promoting segment.

    They were breathlessly talking about the almost a super-typhoon that hit Japan and 3 storms in 3 weeks OMG!!!!!!!, he explained, however, the lack of Hurricanes so far was down to Sahara Dust and it would all change soon and the predicted death and destruction would open our eyes to the magnitude of the disaster we have caused……… (slight exaggeration in my account maybe, but not much).

  4. ren says:

    There are still no hurricanes in the Atlantic. The high is in North.

  5. RE: NOAA predictions.
    The one when you hope that predictions are wrong.

  6. ren says:

    Solar activity rules the weather.

  7. ren says:

    Low over the Azores causes a drop in surface temperature of the eastern tropical Atlantic.

    This shows a negative NAO index.

  8. ren says:

    No sunspots of a new solar cycle.

  9. oldbrew says:

    ‘Tropical cyclones tend to track closer to the East coast of the U.S. during the positive phase of the NAO (red tracks).

    Tropical cyclones tend to recurve prior to reaching the East coast of the U.S. during the negative phase of the NAO (blue tracks).’

    http://www.ccc-weather.com/page42/page8/page35/

    Last 3 months were negative.

  10. ren says:

    Oldbrew, circulation is still not conducive to hurricanes.

  11. ren says:

    The circulation will change only after the solar activity increases. Then you can also create a La Niña (latitudinal circulation).

  12. ren says:

    La Niña is waiting for the beginning of a new solar cycle and it may take quite a long time.

  13. oldbrew says:

    NOAA (above normal) and Colorado State Uni (normal) don’t quite agree…

    Scientists predict there will be two major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher, and with wind speeds of at least 111 mph. Those numbers match Colorado State’s June and July predictions, and are almost exactly the same as average storm numbers observed between 1981 and 2010. The average over that period was 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.

    https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2019/08/05/latest-hurricane-forecast-seven-hurricanes-two-major-storms/

  14. ren says:

    Jet stream over North America does not allow the development of hurricanes in the West Atlantic.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv-mid

  15. oldbrew says:

    No climate crisis signal there.

  16. Justin Flynn says:

    Years with the 10 strongest hurricanes all cluster along the solar system barycenter planetary resonance axis in three specific locations. Years with weak hurricane seasons don’t cluster. Historically this year will NOT experience a top 10 hurricane (in terms of low air pressure). In 2022 perhaps.

    https://madmantalks.blogspot.com/2018/10/hurricane-micheal-has-just-made.html

  17. oldbrew says:

    Interesting Justin. Did any of the top ten happen at or near solar minimum?

  18. hunterson7 says:

    Well as someone who lived in the Gulf of Mexico hurricane basin my entire life, I can only hope that this year’s storm are few, weak, and live out brief lives without touching heavily developed areas.

  19. La Niña is waiting for the beginning of a new solar cycle and it may take quite a long time.

    Hi ren. Niño4 peaked in March, and since peak Pacific NW warm pool lags by 6-7 months, those northern SSTs should fall starting Sept-Oct, pulling down overall SST. Niño34 weekly just dropped by 0.3, indicative of the typical fast equatorial cooling phase which leads to La Niña, such as during the last solar cycle’s analog years circled below, so look for it to start sooner than later.

    The Niño phase in the first image is about one year behind solar activity compared to the last minimum, so it’ll be interesting to see what influences Atlantic development the most this time.

    As to possible solar minimum hurricanes, the Niño analog year 2007 had big hurricanes:

    As did the solar analog year 2008:

  20. ren says:

    Coolclimateinfo, the Increase in the magnetic activity of the Sun will cause circulation along the equator in the Pacific Ocean and the development of La Niña. The current magnetic activity of the Sun can be compared to 2009, not 2007.

  21. ren says:

    Harsh winters threaten North America during reduced solar activity as a result of a weakening of the magnetic field in the Western Hemisphere.

  22. ren says:

    Latest ENSO model prediction plume has been released. Models generally call for neutral ENSO conditions for next couple of months, with forecasts then split between neutral and a return to #ElNino conditions for this winter. Exception is NASA model which is predicting #LaNina.

  23. ren says:

    A cold jet stream from the north generates thunderstorms over North America.

  24. The current magnetic activity of the Sun can be compared to 2009, not 2007.

    ren, I said the solar analog year is 2008 and the ENSO analog year is 2007.

    Also, cosmic ray data isn’t the best indice to gauge solar activity weather/climate impacts. Solar data for 2008 and 2019:

    Both show the last big sunspot for their respective solar cycle, and the effect on TSI. 2009 TSI did have a somewhat similar TSI development after the new SC24 sunspots appeared later in that year, whereas this year, no new cycle larger sunspots have formed since earlier this year, and most likely won’t through December.

    As long as no new sunspots appear, TSI will again wind down to a very small variation as it did in the last quarter of 2018. During a brief La Niña like I’m expecting, the equatorial skies clear up, letting in more sunshine which begins priming the following “solar cycle onset” El Niño, that later develops into more of an initial reaction to the start of new cycle sunspot formation and increasing TSI (solar magnetic activity).

    The magnetic field-polar vortex connection is important, but only so much, and so-called cosmic ray clouds are really generated by the ocean. The earth’s magnetic field is partly modulated by the sun’s field as are cosmic rays, but like cosmic rays, earth’s magnetic fields don’t have “the power” TSI possesses to warm/cool the ocean and drive evaporation and clouds. My speculation is the sun’s polar fields at the solar minimum may be influenced by cosmic rays either directly and/or via induction, which then controls the next cycle’s magnetic activity.

    I also call for hard winters to persist until TSI rises again; the SH is cold for August… – Bob Weber

  25. oldbrew says:

    ENSO Wrap-Up
    Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans
    20 August 2019

    Positive Indian Ocean Dipole pattern continues
    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Indian Ocean is expected to be the dominant driver of Australia’s climate over the coming months.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
    [overwritten every two weeks]

  26. ren says:

    Coolclimateinfo, galactic radiation is the best indicator of the sun’s magnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity has the greatest impact on pressure distribution in the north.
    Circulation in winter over North America will again be consistent with the geomagnetic cutoff.

  27. ren says:

    Paradoxically, the beginning of a new solar cycle can cause a drop in global temperature if La Niña will be quite strong.

  28. ren says:

    Changes in the geomagnetic field cause harsh winters in North America.

  29. ren says:

    During the solar minimum, the AO index is negative.

  30. oldbrew says:

    ren – is your AO the Arctic or Atlantic Oscillation?

  31. ren says:

    Oldbrew, the loading pattern of the AO is defined as the leading mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of monthly mean 1000mb height during 1979-2000 period.

  32. Coolclimateinfo, galactic radiation is the best indicator of the sun’s magnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity has the greatest impact on pressure distribution in the north.
    Circulation in winter over North America will again be consistent with the geomagnetic cutoff.

    ren, just about everything about the solar wind and cosmic rays is coincident with TSI, so it is understandable how people have overlooked TSI.

    I don’t know if you noticed, but your geomagnetic rigidity plot is for Apr 25, but if you hover over it the current plot shows, and the thing to see at that point is the plot doesn’t change. According to your idea, the pressure changes with the geomagnetic cutoff, so how can the unchanging cutoff in the plot be used to know how the pressure or weather will change?

    Also, there is little to no consistent correspondence of the AO to the same period cosmic rays:

    http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/onlinequery.cgi?station=OULU&startday=01&startmonth=05&startyear=2019&starttime=00%3A00&endday=21&endmonth=08&endyear=2019&endtime=23%3A30&resolution=Automatic+choice&outputmode=default&picture=on

    Paradoxically, the beginning of a new solar cycle can cause a drop in global temperature if La Niña will be quite strong.

    Panel (d) of the following stockplot shows equatorial ocean heat content follows a solar cycle TSI pattern that is defined by my ocean warming/cooling threshold. There is net eqOHC cooling until cycle TSI rises above the warm line, which typically reaches its minimum at the end of the cycle onset ENSO, after the ocean has exhausted the beginning of the new solar cycle’s absorbed TSI surge.

    The harsh winters come about from either wintertime short-term TSI drops from large sunspot group passages during the solar cycle maximum, such as in 2013/14, or from extended low solar minimum TSI like last year and this year:

  33. ren says:

    Coolclimateinfo, the geomagnetic field is weakening over North America. This causes an increase in galactic radiation in this region. Ionization by GCR is the strongest in high latitudes at an altitude of 10 to 20 km. This causes a rise in temperature in the lower stratosphere and weakens the winter polar vortex.

  34. ren says:

    Normalized Geopotential Height anomalies.

  35. oldbrew says:

    A Tropical Depression May Form Within Days Off The U.S. Coast – Is Hurricane Season Awakening?
    – Marshall Shepherd

    ‘The atmosphere is behaving as we expect it to and now is the time to start really paying attention if you live in hurricane-vulnerable parts of the United States or the Caribbean.’

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/08/23/a-tropical-depression-may-form-within-days-off-the-us-coastis-hurricane-season-awakening

  36. ren says:

    Network for Lightning and Thunderstorms in Real Time
    http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=32

  37. oldbrew says:

    Forecasters tracking tropical disturbance as it moves closer to Florida
    By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
    August 23, 2019

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/forecasters-tracking-tropical-disturbance-as-it-moves-closer-to-florida/520191


    [NOAA]

  38. ren says:

    Another tropical storm is now attacking in the Gulf of Mexico.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv-mid

  39. oldbrew says:

    Puerto Rico mobilizes as potential hurricane approaches
    August 27, 2019

    https://m.phys.org/news/2019-08-puerto-rico-mobilizes-potential-hurricane.html

  40. oldbrew says:

    AUGUST 27, 2019
    NASA finds Tropical Depression battling wind shear off the Carolina coast
    by Rob Gutro, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

    Newly formed Tropical Depression 6 in the Atlantic Ocean may have just formed, but it did so under adverse atmospheric conditions. The depression is battling wind shear and it’s apparent on imagery from NASA’s Aqua satellite.

    Wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude. When outside winds batter a tropical cyclone, it affects its circulation. A less circular storm tends to slow down in its spin and weaken. [bold added]

    https://phys.org/news/2019-08-nasa-tropical-depression-carolina-coast.html
    – – –
    Accuweather says: ‘Strong wind shear can occur when the jet stream extends over tropical waters and creates a zone of rapidly increasing wind speed at progressively higher levels of the atmosphere.’

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-wind-shear-and-how-does-it-impact-hurricanes-other-tropical-cyclones/70007871

    Maybe 2019 will not be a big Atlantic hurricane year.

  41. oldbrew says:

    AUGUST 28, 2019
    Puerto Rico braces for hit from Hurricane Dorian

    The latest path also puts Dorian on a trajectory to strike the Atlantic coast of Florida or Georgia by the weekend, with few obstacles to weaken it after Puerto Rico.
    . . .
    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned that Dorian could grow into a major hurricane as he warned people to get ready.

    “All Floridians on the East Coast should have 7 days of supplies, prepare their homes and follow the track closely,” he tweeted.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-08-puerto-rico-braces-tropical-storm.html

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