How The Sun Affects Temperatures On Earth 

Posted: October 5, 2019 by oldbrew in climate, Cycles, Natural Variation, predictions, solar system dynamics, Temperature
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H/T The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

An interview with Professor Valentina Zharkova on the effect of solar activity on terrestrial climate – from Conversations That Matter, with Stuart McNish.

The sun is going through a stage known as a solar or Maunder Minimum. This is where the solar activity that ignites solar flares or sun spots has decreased.

It’s a normal cycle and one that has been linked to the mini ice age that lasted more than 50 years starting in the mid-1600s.

According to space weather since 2015, the number of days without a recordable sun spot has been rising year over year. NOAA, NASA and others all appear to agree the sun is entering a solar minimum phase.

What it means is open to interpretation because as Professor William Happer pointed out when I asked him about the growing number of people and agencies that suggest a solar minimum could lead to a cooling off period, he directed me the Danish proverb: “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

It has been suggested that mathematics can establish patterns and back them up with empirical evidence to support a prediction.

We reached out to Professor of Mathematics Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University, one of the first people to raise awareness of the decrease in solar activity, for a Conversation That Matters about the sun, its reduced activity and her reading of the impact it will have on temperatures on earth.

Source: The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

  1. oldbrew says:

    Not had time to view this yet but it sounded interesting, recent controversy notwithstanding…
    – – –
    The other video at the GWPF link:

  2. Wilson says:

    “Professor of Mathematics Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University, one of the first people to raise awareness of the decrease in solar activity..”

    Don’t you mean one of the first people to gain the attention of those who had their heads in the sand?

    Lot’s of people have predicted the decrease in peak solar activity for cycle 24 but virtually nobody listened, e.g.

    [hat tip to Geoff Sharp’s blog site:

    Dr Theodor Landscheidt’s – here are just two papers from 1999 and 2003.

    EXTREMA IN SUNSPOT CYCLE LINKED TO SUN’S MOTION [PDF 203K] Solar Physics 189, 413 – 424, 1999

    ABSTRACT. Partitions of 178.8-year intervals between instances of retrograde motion in the Sun’s oscillation about the center of mass of the solar system seem to provide synchronization points for the timing of minima and maxima in the 11 -year sunspot cycle. In the investigated period 1632-1990, the statistical significance of the relationship goes beyond the level P = 0.001. The extrapolation of the observed pattern points to sunspot maxima around 2000.6 and 2011.8. If a further connection with long-range variations in sunspot intensity proves reliable, four to five weak sunspot cycles (R < 80) are to be expected after cycle 23 with medium strength (R ~ 100).

    Click to access ExtremaInSunspotCycleLinkedToSunsMotion.pdf

    New Little Ice Age instead of global warming [PDF 429K] Energy and Environment 14, 327-350. – 2003

    ABSTRACT: Analysis of the sun's varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun's oscillatory motion about the centre-of-mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Nino years before the respective event.

    Click to access NewLittleIceAgeInsteadOfGlobalWarming.pdf

    In 2008, Brad Carter, Ian Waite and I published a paper entitled:

    Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle?
    Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93

    Not being aware of Landscheidt's predictions for decreased solar activity during solar cycles 24 and 25, we predicted in our 2008 paper that:

    4.3 Important Consequences of the Resonance Model

    Interestingly, the Sun’s solar cycle has been in the phase-locked mode for the last 105yr (1900–2005) and the indications are that it is about to suffer another phase catastrophe in the later part of cycle 24 (i.e. the solar cycle that will peak in ∼2011–2012). If this is the case, then we should expect that in the two decades following the phase catastrophe, the world’s mean temperature should be noticeably cooler i.e. the cooling should start in the late 2010s. This claim is based on the precedent that there were noticeable decreases in the world’s mean temperature following the last two phase catastrophes. The cool period, know as the Dalton Minimum (1800–1820) that followed the phase catastrophe in the early1790s and a similar cool period called the Victorian Minimum (1880–1900) that followed the phase catastrophe in the late 1870s.

  3. SMueller says:

    solar output reducing for last few years. near minimum now, so she says temperatures should be low. but she says she has not investigated CO2 effect and leaves that to others who have. So looking at satellite temperatures we seem to be heading for a peak at low solar output. Strange!! What can be the cause of this. It certainly is not solar output as this has decreased when temperatures have increased!!! Answers on a post card please

    [reply] variable cloud cover

  4. oldbrew says:

    Roy Spencer explains…

    Record Antarctic Stratospheric Warming Causes Sept. 2019 Global Temperature Update Confusion

    – – –
    Climate response to solar minimum is not necessarily a straightforward thing 🙂

  5. SMueller says:

    SMueller says: October 5, 2019 at 1:50 pm
    … What can be the cause of this. It certainly is not solar output as this has decreased when temperatures have increased!!! Answers on a post card please
    [reply] variable cloud cover
    but your latest post says cosmic rays at a maximum = more cloud cover = lower temperatures

    so on what evidence do you say cloud cover?

  6. oldbrew says:

    Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections
    06 September 2019

    From the opening paragraph:
    This annual ±4 Wm–2 simulation uncertainty is ±114 × larger than the annual average ∼0.035 Wm–2 change in tropospheric thermal energy flux produced by increasing GHG forcing since 1979. Tropospheric thermal energy flux is the determinant of global air temperature. [bold added]

    See this section: CMIP5 Model Calibration Error in Global Average Annual Total Cloud Fraction (TCF)

    The errors made by GCMs in simulating cloud cover produce errors in the simulated tropospheric thermal energy flux (Hartmann et al., 1992; Chen et al., 2000; Bony and Dufresne, 2005; Stephens, 2005; Turner et al., 2007; Bony et al., 2011). The error in the intensity of simulated tropospheric thermal energy flux in turn injects errors into projected air temperature. Nevertheless, propagation of error is remarkable by its absence in any discussions of uncertainty in climate prediction (Collins, 2007; Stainforth et al., 2007; Curry, 2011; Curry and Webster, 2011; Hegerl et al., 2011).
    . . .
    To be kept in mind during this exercise is that the source of calibration error is inherent within the physical theory deployed by CMIP GCMs. This means that the error in LWCF arises in the GCM and enters into every step of a simulation. Each step includes a fresh simulation of cloud cover; and each fresh simulation will include a LWCF thermal flux error. An inherently incorrect theory puts its intrinsic error into every simulation step. This point is critical and is discussed further below.
    [bold added]

    Much more in the link.

  7. ivan says:

    It appears that youtube is trying to can the video by making it private log in only – typical of the acolytes of the UN Church of Climatology Cult.

  8. oldbrew says:

    Flawed Models…”Flat Earth” Climate Simulations Overstate CO2, Falsify Sun And Aerosols
    By P Gosselin on 6. October 2019

    Joe Postma has been saying this for years.

  9. oldbrew says:

    The climate theory casting new light on the history of Chinese civilisation

    Researchers say that when 500-year-long sun cycles brought warmth, communities flourished, but when the Earth cooled, ancient societies collapsed
    . . .
    The study left one big question. “Why do the sun’s activities vary every 500 years? Nobody can explain,” he said. “We need to know more about the inner working mechanism of the sun, otherwise the future remains unpredictable.”

  10. oldbrew says:

    Video link fixed.

    Prof Zharkova expects the next three solar cycles 25, 26 and 27 (2020-2053 approx.) to form a grand minimum, but not as strong as the Maunder Minimum.

    Cycle 25 cooling effect should be less powerful than the following two, according to the forecast. That would take us to the start of the 2030s, which has been cited by others also as the likely onset of a cooler climate phase than the present.

    Dr. Sten Odenwald
    Contributor, NASA Heliophysics Education Consortium
    Waiting For The Next Sunspot Cycle: 2019-2030
    09/02/2016 Updated Dec 06, 2017

    By Cycle 25 or 26, magnetic fields may be too weak to punch through the solar surface and form recognizable sunspots at all, spelling the end of the sunspot cycle phenomenon, and the start of another Maunder Minimum cooling period perhaps lasting until 2100.

  11. Greg Myers says:

    I read her paper and the attached lecture puts it in perspective. Professor Zharkova is a modern day Galileo with the courage to put this information out there at the risk of reputation and career. Her model is a compelling case for the affect of the upcoming minimum.

  12. oldbrew says:

    By Cycle 25 or 26, magnetic fields may be too weak to punch through the solar surface and form recognizable sunspots at all [see — oldbrew says: October 11, 2019 at 12:29 pm]

    NASA says SC 25 has started, but no sunspots in the last 33 days.