Solar Cycle 25 is slowly coming to life

Posted: November 2, 2019 by oldbrew in Cycles, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

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The question then is: how much life will it come to, compared to recent cycles?
Cycle 25 observations in SDO HMI imagery (to October 31st, 2019)

Spaceweather.com

Nov. 1, 2019: Breaking a string of 28 spotless days, a new sunspot (AR2750) is emerging in the sun’s southern hemisphere–and it’s a member of the next solar cycle. A picture of the sunspot is inset in this magnetic map of the sun’s surface from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:

newspot_crop2

How do we know AR2750 belongs to the next solar cycle? Its magnetic polarity tells us so. Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale’s Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. AR2750 is therefore a member of Solar Cycle 25.

Shortlived sunspots belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have already been reported on Dec. 20, 2016; April 8, 2018; Nov. 17, 2018; May 28, 2019; July 1, 2019; and July 8, 2019. The one on July 8, 2019, was significant because it lasted long…

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Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Recent cycles 21-24


    = = =
    Experts Predict a Long, Deep Solar Minimum
    APRIL 10, 2019 / DR.TONY PHILLIPS

    If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

  2. […] über Solar Cycle 25 is slowly coming to life — Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]

  3. Interesting as Miles Mathis (http://milesmathis.com/updates.html ) predicted the start of cycle 25 as April 2018 “NEW PAPER, added 4/26/19, Solar Minimum Blues. The mainstream is still misdirecting on the start of Cycle 25, and I am here to expose them”.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Not sure MM understands the rules of the solar cycle game. It’s not about the first sunspot with opposite polarity to the current cycle, which was in December 2016 according to Dr. Tony Phillips (see post above).

  5. oldbrew says:

    Wikipedia’s list of solar cycles page says:

    ‘The smoothed minimum ending cycle 24 is likely to be significantly higher than the one which ended cycle 23, making a Maunder-like minimum unlikely in the near future.’

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles
    – – –
    Someone is sticking their neck out there 😎
    Look where the cycle 24 line is on the graphic above.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Spotless Days
    2019 total: 232 days (75%)
    https://spaceweather.com/archive.php

    Exceeds cycle 23 (73% in 2008) with over 40 days to 2019 year end, although calendar year is a bit of an arbitrary period.

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