Chris Martz: No, global warming is not causing more frequent Arctic outbreaks

Posted: November 10, 2019 by oldbrew in alarmism, atmosphere, Critique, physics, weather, wind
Tags: ,

Credit: weather.com


By what known physics could a few molecules of carbon dioxide upset the jet stream? A meteorologist is not impressed by such claims.

By Chris Martz | November 9, 2019
INTRODUCTION Just when wildfires weren’t enough, we now have people blaming cold weather on a warming climate, which seems quite contradictory.

In light of the Arctic outbreak in forecast this coming week, people like Phil Plait (who has since blocked me) took to Twitter (Figure 1) to claim that man-made climate change is causing frigid, Arctic air to be displaced south into the United States, Europe, and Asia.

His argument, which is supported by some climate scientists, suggests that man-made global warming causes the polar jet stream to destabilize causing it to become wavy rather than zonal, sending Arctic air southward into the mid-latitude regions.

He also stated that without global warming, the polar air would stay near the north pole.

Both of these claims are exactly backwards from reality and are not supported by weather dynamics, the global warming theory, or statistical observations in long-term temperature data.

1. WHAT CAUSES COLD AIR OUTBREAKS?

Cold air outbreaks are generally caused by disruptions in a large scale atmospheric circulation known as the polar vortex which surrounds the coldest air above the North Pole.

Contrary to popular belief, the polar vortex is not unusual, extreme, or a new phenomenon. As Waugh et al., 2016 stated, “they are simply basic features of Earth’s climatology.”¹

There are two main polar vorticies in each Hemisphere, but for sake of time, I’m only going to discuss the one that gets the most attention; the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex.

It’s commonly believed that the two polar vortexes, one in the troposphere and the other in the stratosphere, are directly connected as one, but they are in fact quite different (Waugh et al., 2016).

The tropospheric polar vortex is found between approximately 5,000 feet (850 mb) and 52,000 feet (100 mb) with it’s core at approximately 18,000 feet (500 mb) in altitude (Waugh et al., 2016). The stratospheric polar vortex however, is located much farther up in altitude (Figure 2).

Continued here [with links and graphics].

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    This is topical as a powerful ‘cold snap’ is expected to strike parts of the US this week. Some record lows are forecast (for the date/location)…

    Next week’s Arctic blast will be so cold, forecasters expect it to break 170 records across US
    Date: 8th Nov. 2019

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/11/08/weather-arctic-blast-next-week-midwest-east-south-cold-temperatures/2518984001/
    – – –
    Is this the same ‘rapidly warming’ Arctic that alarmists keep telling us about?

  2. Lance Wallace says:

    I made the comment below on Chris Martz’ website:

    Your Figure 5 shows the mid-troposphere Tropical Hot Spot. This figure or a related one appears in every IPCC report. I agree with you (and even Gavin Schmidt) that it is a fundamental prediction of Global Warming Theory. Yet no Hot Spot has ever been seen by millions of radiosondes, weather balloons, and the last 40 years of satellite observations. My old professor at Caltech used to say that it doesn’t matter how many people say a theory is true; if its predictions are not observed, then it’s wrong.

    Therefore I think that your argument from what Global Warming Theory predicts has a possibility of not being correct.

  3. oldbrew says:

    CM: ‘Another bust in the theory that climate change is causing more frequent Arctic outbreaks is that when the troposphere warms, the stratosphere cools, which is exactly what satellite data shows (Figure 7). Considering Arctic outbreaks require the stratosphere over the North Pole to warm to cause a polar vortex split, this is a major bust in attributing cold air outbreaks to man-made global warming.’

  4. A C Osborn says:

    oldbrew says: November 10, 2019 at 9:23 pm “Another bust in the theory that climate change is causing more frequent Arctic outbreaks”

    Oldbrew, yes it is, but the public will never know it.
    Try googling wavy Jetstream and practically all you get is Climate Change is causing it.
    They are literally rewriting history, the Wavy Polar jetstream has been known about for decades and happened way before the modern increase in CO2. But you would never know it based on Internet Searches.
    It was also established decades ago that it was closely linked to Solar Cycles, but even that is hard to find amongst all the disinformation being spread by Climate Scientists.

  5. phil salmon says:

    It’s pure bullshit that they just make up as they go along.
    More and more people are realising this.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Another Arctic Surge to Deliver Record Mid-November Cold to the Plains, Midwest, South and East in the Week Ahead
    By weather.com meteorologists 16 hours ago

    https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2019-11-08-arctic-cold-outbreak-mid-november-record-midwest-south-east

    Record mid-November cold from the ‘warming’ Arctic on the way – how did humans cause that? 😆

  7. oldbrew says:

    IMPORTANCE OF SHOWING JET STREAM MAP

    METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

    The jet stream is important in that it is an air mass divider. It is important to point out the position of the jet stream across the country as well as the troughs and ridges. The troughing, or jet stream dipping to the south will bring cold air further south. The ridging, or jet stream displaced further north will bring warm air further north. It is important to look at how the jet stream will change over time. This is important in that it will show where the cold and warm air is moving and where low pressure and high pressure systems are moving.

    The image below is an example of a jet stream map. [see link]
    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/507/

  8. Damian says:

    I got new double glazing. The gap between the glass panes is filled with argon.
    Why wouldn’t they use a radiatively active gas?
    Why has mankind not once exploited this incredible property of GHGs? A minuscule increase in Co2 could turn the Earth into Venus, surely we would find some way of exploiting this?

  9. Stephen Wilde says:

    I’ve been pointing out the same for years.
    Said that the wavy jets are a sign of cooling whereas less wavy are a sign of warming.

  10. Stephen Richards says:

    Read HH Lamb

  11. oldbrew says:

    Is fall dead? Is this a blue norther? And other questions answered about the Arctic blast
    Doyle Rice USA TODAY
    Published 2:04 PM EST Nov 11, 2019

    The blast of record-breaking Arctic air that’s charging across the country will bring the growing season to a screeching halt in much of the southern and eastern U.S. this week.

    Freeze watches have been posted as far south as the Panhandle of Florida, where Pensacola should see a low temperature of 31 degrees by early Wednesday morning. “Conditions can kill crops, new growth and sensitive vegetation,” the National Weather Service in Mobile, Alabama, warned.

    The strong winds and cold temperatures will also hasten the end of the prime fall foliage season in many locations.

    By Wednesday morning, below-freezing temperatures are forecast as far south as the central Texas coast. “This will make it feel like in the middle of winter rather than November for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country for the next few days,” the National Weather Service said.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/11/11/arctic-blast-fall-dead-and-other-questions-answered/2562843001/
    – – –
    Silence from climate panickers?

  12. stpaulchuck says:

    I was down at Keesler Air Force Base for electronics school in 1962-63. That winter it got so cold the base commander set aside uniform clothing regulations and said you can pile on anything you’ve got to stay warm as temperatures dropped down to freezing and below.

    the UK broke 200 year-old temperature records that winter.

    In 1966 Mississippi recorded minus 19 Fahrenheit

    As a resident of Minnesota I welcome global warming! We had single digit temperatures this morning and it’s not even Thanksgiving yet.

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