China scientists warn of global cooling trick up nature’s sleeve

Posted: December 15, 2019 by tallbloke in Celestial Mechanics, climate, Cycles, Natural Variation, solar system dynamics, Temperature
Variation in solar activity during a recent sunspot cycle [credit: Wikipedia]

A new study has found winters in northern China have been warming since 4,000BC – regardless of human activity – but the mainland scientists behind the research warn there is no room for complacency or inaction on climate change, with the prospect of a sudden global cooling also posing a danger.

The study found that winds from Arctic Siberia have been growing weaker, the conifer tree line has been retreating north, and there has been a steady rise in biodiversity in a general warming trend that continues today. It appears to have little to do with the increase in greenhouse gases which began with the industrial revolution, according to the researchers.

Lead scientist Dr Wu Jing, from the Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said the study had found no evidence of human influence on northern China’s warming winters.

“Driving forces include the sun, the atmosphere, and its interaction with the ocean,” Wu said. “We have detected no evidence of human influence. But that doesn’t mean we can just relax and do nothing.”

Wu and her colleagues are concerned that, as societies grow more used to the concept of global warming, people will develop a misplaced confidence in our ability to control climate change. Nature, they warned, may trick us and might catch us totally unprepared – causing chaos, panic, famine and even wars as the global climate system is disrupted.

There are already alarming signs, according to their paper, which has been accepted for publication by the online Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

Wu and her colleagues spent more than a dozen years studying sediments under Moon Lake, a small volcanic lake hidden in the deep forests of the Greater Khingan Mountain Range in China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region. They found that winter warming over the past 6,000 years had not been a smooth ride, with ups and downs occurring about every 500 years.

Their findings confirmed an earlier study by a separate team of Chinese scientists, published by online journal Scientific Reports in 2014, which first detected the 500-year cyclical pattern of China’s summer monsoons and linked it to solar activity.

The 2014 research, which drew on 5,000 years’ worth of data, suggested the current warm phase of the cycle could terminate over the next several decades, ushering in a 250-year cool phase, potentially leading to a partial slowdown in man-made global warming.

Wu said the latest study, with 10,000 years’ worth of new data, not only helped to draw a more complete picture of the 500-year cycle, but also revealed a previously unknown mechanism behind the phenomenon, which suggested the impact of the sun on the Earth’s climate may be greater than previously thought.

According to Wu, the variation in solar activity alone was usually not strong enough to induce the rapid changes in vegetation the research team recorded in the sediment cores of Moon Lake. Instead, the scientists found the warming impact was amplified by a massive, random interaction between surface seawater and the atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

As a result of the research findings, Wu said she was now more worried about cooling than warming.

“A sharp drop of temperature will benefit nobody. The biggest problem is, we know it will come, but we don’t know exactly when.”

Comments
  1. A C Osborn says:

    Another dissenting voice paying lip service to AGW.
    This is classic “the study had found no evidence of human influence on northern China’s warming winters.” compared to later “ushering in a 250-year cool phase, potentially leading to a partial slowdown in man-made global warming.” which they found no eveidence of.
    Talk about mixed signals.

  2. A C Osborn says:

    Is there a link to the paper?

  3. oldbrew says:

    Paper: 500-year climate cycles stacking of recent centennial warming documented in an East Asian pollen record (2014)
    https://www.nature.com/articles/srep03611

    From the Discussion section [TSI = total solar irradiance]:
    If TSI reduces (increases), the downward-propagating effects triggered by changes in stratospheric ozone lead to cooling (warming) of stratosphere and global land surface temperature
    – – –
    We had a post on this in August, from a GWPF link.
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/08/13/chinese-scientists-warn-of-global-cooling-impact-of-solar-activity/

  4. Phoenix44 says:

    Climate changes.

    No need for human CO2.

    So that’s that?

  5. oldbrew says:

    Need to pick the bones out of this [EA = East Asia]:

    Our pollen record shows ~500-year cyclic vegetation and temperature oscillation in EA during the last five millennia. This result indicates that ~500-year cyclic climate change over East Asian still exists under anthropogenic forcing during the last century. Recent warm phase, which has lasted about 170 years, is most likely finished in several decades without regard to anthropogenic factors. In addition, this periodic climate change could reduce the man-made warming trend in the next two centennials in EA. Furthermore, this EA cyclic climate change may be influenced by solar irradiance induced AO/NAO and NADW anomaly. Our study indicates that EA climate system is highly sensitive to weak perturbations in the solar energy output on the multicentennial scale.
    – – –
    Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO)
    North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW)

  6. Bloke down the pub says:

    ‘ Instead, the scientists found the warming impact was amplified by a massive, random interaction between surface seawater and the atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.’. Random?

  7. phil salmon says:

    oldbrew
    That they refer to solar irradiance induced AO/NAO and NADW anomaly
    shows that they are already well informed about – and persuaded by – a solar periodic forcing influence on ocean driven climate.

    The NADW anomaly is a topic of great interest in its own right.

  8. oldmanK says:

    Approximately a 500 year cycle. Perhaps it is about half an Eddy 976 +/- 53 yr. Eddy peaks were warm, roots cold. The last root at ~1680 Maunder Min. Next peak at 2169 according to the cycle. However the trigger points were quite erratic on date, varying by as much as ~200 yrs either way.

  9. Gamecock says:

    ‘there has been a steady rise in biodiversity in a general warming trend that continues today’

    Biodiversity good, ∴ warming good.

  10. oldbrew says:

    ‘a general warming trend that continues today’
    ‘In addition, this periodic climate change could reduce the man-made warming trend in the next two centennials in EA.’
    – – –
    Dodging the issue somewhat? They have already put forward an explanation for at least some of the warming of recent times, but the ‘man-made’ claim is mere assertion.

  11. tallbloke says:

    OB: We had a post on this in August, from a GWPF link.
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/08/13/chinese-scientists-warn-of-global-cooling-impact-of-solar-activity/

    Ah, I did do a search for “Wu” and “China” but didn’t spot it.

  12. stpaulchuck says:

    “It appears to have little to do with the increase in greenhouse gases which began with the industrial revolution, according to the researchers.”
    ——-
    “…which suggested the impact of the sun on the Earth’s climate may be greater than previously thought.”
    ——-
    ‘Wu said. “We have detected no evidence of human influence. But that doesn’t mean we can just relax and do nothing.” ‘
    ———————————————————————–

    So this directly points to near zero influence on global climate by humans, but we MUST do something about it. In other words the Chinese know AGW is a scam but want to encourage other countries to trash their economies fighting it. Hmm, I smell a rat here.
    ———-
    “The influence of mankind on climate is trivially true and numerically insignificant.” – Dr Richard Lindzen

  13. oldbrew says:

    TB: no worries, I probably only noticed because it was me that posted it.
    [re: December 15, 2019 at 2:47 pm ]
    – – –
    Re. the paper: between 1600 BC and 600 BC instead of 2 periods of 500 years, they report three — 400+300+300.

    This shows up in the oxygen-18 record in Figure 6 (below), where the upward wave (under ‘7’) only gets halfway then ‘wobbles’ for 300-400 years and falls back again. It looks as if the same (?) wobble (under ‘8’) appears on the TSI wave but about 600 years earlier.

    Note for alarmists: right-hand edge = present trend, showing cooling has started or is about to do so.

  14. tallbloke says:

  15. tallbloke says:

  16. Ulric Lyons says:

    Roger, Salvador’s solar cycle model is based on my findings of the role of Uranus being plagiarised and thoroughly misapplied. It cannot possibly work for two reasons, a) the timing of solar cycles is determined by heliocentric qudrupole alignment dates and not by average periods, and b) that JEV resolve to Neptune rather than Uranus during the centennial solar minimum sunspot cycles. The timing of the configurations accounts for all solar cycle length variability: The approx 10.4 year long sunspot cycles between centennial minima, the longer sunspot cycles leading into and out of centennial solar minima, and the shortest sunspot cycles in the middle of longer centennial minima, because the JEV syzygy series return to syzygy/quadrature with Neptune faster than they do with Uranus.

  17. oldbrew says:

  18. oldbrew says:

    Cosmic Ray Update
    DECEMBER 13, 2019 / DR.TONY PHILLIPS

    What’s happening? The answer is “Solar Minimum”–the low point of the 11-year solar cycle. During Solar Minimum (underway now) the sun’s magnetic field weakens and allows energetic particles from deep space to penetrate the Solar System. As solar activity goes down, cosmic rays go up; yin-yang.
    . . .
    The Space Age record for cosmic rays isn’t very old. It was set in late 2009-early 2010 near the end of a very deep Solar Minimum much like the one we’re experiencing now. As 2019 comes to a close, neutron counts at Oulu are approaching those same levels. Indeed, a new record could be just weeks or months away.

    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/12/13/the-ironic-behavior-of-cosmic-rays/

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