Ice sheet melting: estimates still uncertain, experts warn

Rinks Glacier, West Greenland
[image credit: NSIDC]

Estimates are always uncertain to some degree – that’s why they’re called estimates. So an uncertain estimate can’t be all that useful. They admit ‘there are still key deficiencies in the models’ — but these are usually ignored when alarmist climate predictions are headlined. As ever, ice-related sea level claims should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

Estimates used by climate scientists to predict the rate at which the world’s ice sheets will melt are still uncertain despite advancements in technology, new research shows.

These ice sheet estimates feed directly into projections of sea-level rise resulting from climate change, says Phys.org.

They are made by measuring how much material ice sheets are gaining or losing over time, known as mass balance, to assess their long-term health.

Snowfall increases the mass of an ice sheet, while ice melting or breaking off causes it to lose mass, and the overall balance between these is crucial.

Although scientists now have a much better understanding of the melting behaviour of ice sheets than they did in previous decades, there are still significant uncertainties about their future melt rates, researchers found.

Update Dec. 2019 Yes PM Pokes Fun at Climatism

.
.
No chance of the BBC repeating these episodes making light of climate nonsense.
– – –
Link to third video: “A Tsar is Born”

Science Matters

GWPF published today a letter from the late Sir Antony Jay, co-creator of Yes, Minister and Yes, Prime Minster, attacking the BBC for its blatant bias on climate change 8 years ago.  It seems timely to repost the final episode from the last season addressing the topic of global warming/climate change.  As you see, climate politics have not changed very much.

Part 1 of the program is here:

Part 2

Previously I posted this:

A humorous look at why the global warming campaign and the triumphal Paris COP make sense.

Yes Minister explains it all in an episode from 2013.

h/t to Peter S.

This is an all-too-realistic portrayal of political climatism today.

Then I realized that BBC had blocked the viewing of the video.  So I sought and found the subtitles for Yes Prime Minister 2013, Episode 6, “A Tsar is Born”.  That final episode for the series began with…

View original post 820 more words

Magnetic north pole continuing to push toward Siberia

Magnetic North on the move [credit: ESA]

Few will notice anything, but some airport runways will have to change their markings.

The team of researchers that maintain the World Magnetic Model (WMM) has updated it and released it a year ahead of schedule due to the speed with which the pole is moving, reports Phys.org.

The newly updated model shows the magnetic north pole moving away from Canada and toward Siberia.

The magnetic north pole is the point on the Earth that compasses designate as true north. It is the result of geological processes deep within the planet—molten iron flow creates a magnetic field with poles near the geographic North and South Poles.

The Warming Wind Turbines Of Climate Change

.
.
An eye-opener for wind turbine supporters, and everyone else who has to pay for them via taxes and power bills.

PA Pundits International

By Duggan Flanakin ~

Wind turbines continue to be the most controversial so-called “renewable” energy source worldwide. Yet, you say, wind is surely renewable. Really? Sure, the wind blows intermittently, but what if wind power actually contributes to global warming?

While the wind itself may be “renewable,” the turbines surely are not. Arcadia Power reports that the widely used GE 1.5-megawatt (MW) turbine, is a 164-ton monster with 116-foot blades on a 212-foot tower that weighs another 71 tons. The Vestas V90, which has 148-foot blades on a 262-foot tower, has a total weight of about 267 tons. That is just ONE TURBINE!

How are these giants constructed? The U.S. Geological Survey, citing the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, states that turbines are predominantly made of steel (which comprises 71 to 79 percent of total turbine mass), fiberglass, resin, or plastic (11 to 16 percent), iron or cast iron (5 to…

View original post 753 more words

SDO sees new kind of magnetic explosion on sun

The article also explains why ‘understanding forced reconnection can help modelers better predict when disruptive high-energy charged particles might come speeding at Earth.’

NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory has observed a magnetic explosion the likes of which have never been seen before, reports Phys.org.

In the scorching upper reaches of the Sun’s atmosphere, a prominence—a large loop of material launched by an eruption on the solar surface—started falling back to the surface of the Sun.

But before it could make it, the prominence ran into a snarl of magnetic field lines, sparking a magnetic explosion.

Coal demand to remain stable amid climate concerns: IEA

Credit: Coal India Limited

As the COP 25 summit ends in disarray, all attempts to stoke up fears of a man-made ‘climate crisis’ are not going well, in some parts of the world at least. Hard to see developing countries turning away from reliable and affordable energy any time soon.

The demand for coal will remain steady over the next four years due to demand from Asia, which comes despite fears of the climate crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday.

Coastal areas across Southeast Asia have already seen major floods and seawater incursion linked to climate change, claims Phys.org.

“Global coal demand has rebounded since 2017,” the IEA said in a report.

Quotes from COP25: It’s a nothing-burger

Here are key quotes from leaders, experts and activists on the UN Climate Change Conference (COP25) outcome.

Antonio Guterres, UN secretary general

“I am disappointed with the results of COP25. The international community lost an important opportunity to show increased ambition on mitigation, adaptation and finance to tackle the climate crisis.”

Converting coal plants to biomass could fuel climate crisis, scientists warn

You couldn’t make it up. Having for years rejected claims that industrial-scale burning of wood was not sustainable, climate obsessives now discover…exactly that. At least the media waited until the COP conference in Madrid ended, to avoid upsetting the delegates.

Experts horrified at large-scale forest removal to meet wood pellet demand, says The Guardian.

A few snippets from the article:

Climate thinktank Sandbag said the heavily subsidised plans to cut carbon emissions will result in a “staggering” amount of tree cutting, potentially destroying forests faster than they can regrow.

A Full Yorkshire Brexit

Nigel and Tallbloke chatting to stallholders on Barnsley market

Financial Times Dec 13:

“Where the Brexit party contested seats, they took more votes from Labour than the Tories, and Labour suffered greater losses on average where the Brexit party stood than where it did not.

“This was most evident in the region of Yorkshire and the Humber where the Brexit party had their best performances. For example, in the Don Valley seat, the Brexit party picked up 15 per cent of the vote as Labour’s share fell by 19 percentage points. Despite the strong showing by the Brexit party, the Conservative vote share ticked up from 42 to 43 per cent, allowing the Tories to unseat Labour’s Caroline Flint.”

China scientists warn of global cooling trick up nature’s sleeve

Variation in solar activity during a recent sunspot cycle [credit: Wikipedia]

A new study has found winters in northern China have been warming since 4,000BC – regardless of human activity – but the mainland scientists behind the research warn there is no room for complacency or inaction on climate change, with the prospect of a sudden global cooling also posing a danger.

The study found that winds from Arctic Siberia have been growing weaker, the conifer tree line has been retreating north, and there has been a steady rise in biodiversity in a general warming trend that continues today. It appears to have little to do with the increase in greenhouse gases which began with the industrial revolution, according to the researchers.

Stoking Big Climate Business

.
.
The madness continues. Nobody is rushing to fill the climate begging bowls at the COP summit in Madrid, despite their so-called ‘climate emergency’.

Science Matters

Rupert Darwall writes from Madrid to Real Clear Energy The Business of Climate Change. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Open image in new tab to enlarge. Details at Follow the money.

Saving the planet takes money, and lots of it. Money is both the theme and the subtext of the latest round of UN climate talks being held here—a vast river of cash flows through the UN climate process. Formally, the meeting is about nailing down one of the more obscure provisions of the Paris Agreement: Article 6, which provides for market-based instruments so that countries can trade their way out of their decarbonization commitments. Billions of cross-border dollars and transaction fees hang on the outcome.

With the negotiations concerning mind-paralyzing definitions of interest only to the most intrepid climate geeks, business and finance leaders could wind up taking center stage. When they first started…

View original post 2,040 more words

NASA’s Juno navigators enable Jupiter cyclone discovery

Six cyclones form a hexagonal pattern around a central cyclone at Jupiter’s south pole. Generated image – credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/ASI/INAF/JIRAM

Suddenly Saturn’s hexagon isn’t unique in the solar system any more.

Jupiter’s south pole has a new cyclone, reports Phys.org.

The discovery of the massive Jovian tempest occurred on Nov. 3, 2019, during the most recent data-gathering flyby of Jupiter by NASA’s Juno spacecraft.

It was the 22nd flyby during which the solar-powered spacecraft collected science data on the gas giant, soaring only 2,175 miles (3,500 kilometers) above its cloud tops.

The flyby also marked a victory for the mission team, whose innovative measures kept the solar-powered spacecraft clear of what could have been a mission-ending eclipse.

Stalemate at UN climate talks as splits re-appear

Another COP flop seems likely. After the usual fig leaf of the closing declaration, they’ll kick the panic can down the road to the next bloated gab-fest in Glasgow 2020. And so the bickering circus goes on, and on…

UN climate talks in Madrid enter their final scheduled day with divisions emerging between major emitting countries and small island states, reports BBC News.

Negotiators are attempting to agree a deal in the Spanish capital that would see countries commit to make new climate pledges by the end of 2020.

But serious disagreements have emerged over how much carbon-cutting the major emitters should undertake.

Mammoth field fires up Norway’s oil industry

Image credit: ogj.com

In the real world, demand for oil continues unabated. Note for climate squealers: ‘At the production stage, each barrel has a carbon footprint 25 times lower than the global average’. Whoopee!

Under yellow metal legs stretching beneath the sea, billions of dollars lie buried.

As the world tries hard to halt global warming, mutters Phys.org, a huge oil field breathes new life into Norway’s oil sector.

“Massive!”, exclaims a delighted Arne Sigve Nylund, the head of energy giant Equinor’s Norway operations.

“At its peak, it will represent approximately 25-30 percent of the total oil production from the Norwegian continental shelf,” he says as he takes reporters on a tour of the Johan Sverdrup oil field, hardhat firmly secured on his head.

The giant planets, the lunar year and the Sun

Jupiter-Saturn-Earth orbits chart

This was just about to go live when a new idea involving the Sun cropped up, now added to the original. The source data is from NASA JPL as usual.

From our 2015 de Vries post we saw that the 2503 year period, which the numbers were based on, consisted of 85 Saturn and 211 Jupiter orbits [see chart on the right].

Taking Saturn’s orbit period, and using JPL’s planetary data we find:
10755.7 days * 85 = 914234.5 days

The lunar year is 13 lunar orbits of Earth:
27.321582 days * 13 = 355.18056 days

914234.5 / 355.18056 = 2573.9992 (2574) = 13 * 198 lunar years

Number of beats of Saturn and the lunar year = 2574 – 85 = 2489 in 2503 years.
2503 – 2489 = 14
Number of Jose cycles in 2503 years = 14 (= 126 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions, i.e. 9 J-S * 14).

Therefore the difference per Jose cycle between ‘Saturn-lunar year’ beats and Earth years is exactly one.

COP 25: Funny Stuff Behind The Curtain In Madrid

.
.
Notes from the Madrid climate pantomime, sorry…conference.

PA Pundits International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

If you hold your nose and look closely there is some pretty funny stuff going on at the UN climate summit in Madrid. It is hard to hold your nose and laugh at the same time, but if you want to be UN watcher it is a necessary skill. I have been doing it for a long time, but then I have a big nose to hold on to while rolling with laughter.

First off there are the national delegations. International travel is expensive so you would figure the richest countries would send the biggest delegations, right? You would be wrong.

By far the biggest delegation is from tiny Côte d’Ivoire, with a whopping 348 delegates. Only a handful of these could possibly attend the negotiating sessions. Second biggest is from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 293, still a staggering figure. The other…

View original post 791 more words

How to Shape a Spiral Galaxy

Spiral galaxy NGC 5457 aka the Pinwheel Galaxy [image credit: European Space Agency & NASA]

No mention of electricity here, although it’s required to create the magnetism: ‘The magnetic behavior of a material depends on its structure, particularly its electron configuration’ – Wikipedia. We’re told these electromagnetic forces stretch for 24,000 light years in one galaxy, but understanding them is still in its infancy.

New observations from SOFIA are shedding light on how spiral-shaped galaxies, like our own Milky Way, get their iconic shape, says NASA.

Our Milky Way galaxy has an elegant spiral shape with long arms filled with stars, but exactly how it took this form has long puzzled scientists. New observations of another galaxy are shedding light on how spiral-shaped galaxies like our own get their iconic shape.

Magnetic fields play a strong role in shaping these galaxies, according to research from the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy, or SOFIA.

Claim: newly identified jet-stream pattern could imperil global food supplies

Omega blocking highs can remain in place for several days or even weeks [image credit: UK Met Office]

Another day, another attempt at a climate scare story. That’s a well-identified pattern too. But is this jet-stream pattern really ‘newly’ identified, or was it described by NASA nine years ago? Meteorology uses the term omega block. Which side of the block a region is on determines whether it’s warmer or colder than normal for the duration.

Scientists have identified systematic meanders in the globe-circling northern jet stream that have caused simultaneous crop-damaging heat waves in widely separated breadbasket regions-a previously unquantified threat to global food production that, they say, could worsen with global warming.

The research shows that certain kinds of waves in the atmospheric circulation can become amplified and then lock in place for extended periods, triggering the concurrent heat waves, reports Phys.org.

Affected parts of North America, Europe and Asia together produce a quarter of the world food supply. The study appears this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Biofuel sparks hundreds of farmer machinery repair complaints

What happened to testing, prior to making what looks like a disastrous change to working machinery in the name of climate ideology? Looks like the farmers are the testers.

The use of biofuel has sparked hundreds of complaints from farmers who claim it is forcing them into “unacceptable” costly machinery repairs, reports BBC News.

Adding biofuel – which is made from organic materials rather than fossil fuels – to diesel supplies is seen as one way of reducing carbon emissions from vehicles such as tractors.

But farmers say it has been clogging up filters and causing breakdowns.

NFU Scotland said more than 400 complaints have been made.

EU mega-subsidies for electric battery push

What could possibly go wrong? The German Economy Minister described the 3.2 billion euro handout as “a great success for Germany and Europe”. But what else could he say, as such a vast sum of taxpayer cash disappears in the name of climate ideology?

The EU’s powerful anti-trust authority on Monday approved billions of euros in subsidies from seven member states as Europe seeks to make up lost ground in batteries, reports TechXplore.

The EU’s powerful anti-trust authority on Monday approved billions of euros in subsidies from seven member states as Europe seeks to make up lost ground in batteries.

The move is part of a big push led by Germany and France to prepare Europe for the emergence of electric cars, as gas combustible engines are phased out over climate change concerns.