Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [credit: NASA-JPL]
AMO & PDO – RIP. That’s the claim here anyway. Might be news to NASA and others.
Recently, meteorologists report that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) do not appear to exist, says Tech Explorist.
The discovery could have implications for both the validity of previous studies attributing past trends to these hypothetical natural oscillations and for the prospects of decade-scale climate predictability.
The discovery is based on observational data and climate model simulations, that shows there was no reliable proof for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that could be separated from climatic noise— arbitrary year to year variation.
The apparent main swaying is the well-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Scientists noted, “A distinct — 40 to 50-year timescale — a spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation.”
. . .
Michael E. Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Penn State, said, “Given the current sophistication of climate models as seen in their ability to capture the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, we would expect to see consistent evidence for oscillations across a suite of climate models. We found no such evidence.”
Full article here.
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Nature Communications: Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations (Jan. 2020) – open access
[Authors: Michael E. Mann, Byron A. Steinman & Sonya K. Miller]
= = =
(some ritual ‘greenhouse’ propaganda near the end)
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Reblogged this on Climate- Science.press.
“According to the researchers, if the Atlantic Multidecadal or Pacific Decadal oscillations existed, there would be evidence for their existence across the suite of current state-of-the-art climate model simulations.”
Translation:
“Our climate models don’t mimic reality, therefore reality is wrong.”
B-b-but… ‘state-of-the-art’ models … 🙄 – the ones that are always wrong about warming?
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Average spotless days, 6 solar cycles: 11-16 (1867 to 1933) = 793 per SC
Average spotless days, 6 solar cycles: 17-22 (1933 to 1996) = 321 per SC
SC 23-24 (1996 to date) still counting: average to date = 781 per SC
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles
17-22 period was ~3.5 years shorter than 11-16.
This is crap to help shore up the CO2 obsessed consensus.
Getting a lot of retweets. 🙂
Climate modeller:
tallbloke says:
January 4, 2020 at 12:11 pm
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bang on the nose Rog!
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this smells a whole lot like the disappearance of the Middle Ages Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, etc., etc., that put the lie to the data fiddling graphs “proving” AGW (see ‘hockey stick’ for reference). Seems a last ditch effort to convince the ship Titanic BS’s passengers that all is well. “Who ya gonna believe, us or your lying thermometer?”
https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2011/07/pdo-signature-of-influence-of-long-term.html
The PDO – a signature of the influence of long-term Lunar tides on ocean up whelming
The (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PDO signature is shown in the bottom two globe projections. The left global projection corresponds to a positive PDO, the right to a negative PDO. Compare both of these to the equipotential tidal surface formed by the 18.6 year Nodal tides.
The Equatorial Pacific Ocean moves up and down by +/- 7 to 8 mm every 18.6 years, in anti-phase to the North Pacific Ocean. It is possible that slow upward and downward movement of the ocean surface may be responsible for periodic up whelming of cool deep-ocean water on bi-decadal (18.6 year) and ~ 55.8 (= 3 x 18.6) year times scales.
Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
Your facts don’t care about his feelings! Where once a captain said Dive! , Dive! , Dive!, bloviating Captain Mann and his crew of beguilers shout Hide! Hide! Hide!. They seek to destroy that which they do not understand; as the many philistines, fanatical book and witch burners have in apparently less informed times. Unless, of course, Mann is rather overly showing his hand as a deeply political animal, in which case when Tim Ball said Mann belonged in Penn State he may well have been onto something.
https://twitter.com/CraigM350/status/1213307096416104449?s=19
Why don’t they point the finger at the climate models? Looks like they’re trying to salvage credibility for them when they clearly fall short. Computer says: no.
Just begging the question. They claim their models are good enough to show if they exist, and when the models show they don’t exist….
But the models not showing them existing could also be proof the models aren’t good enough.
Seriously, do Climate scientists (even “distinguished” ones), not have to follow logic?
The effects are the causes and models trump reality. That’s the logic 🤔
Has all the information and data necessary to reproduce the results been published or is this more Mann made globull warming (TM)?
With M Mann as lead author it is automatically suspect.
ivan – yes, it’s all here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13823-w
Or, that’s all you’re going to get.
The AMO acts as an amplified negative feedback to changes in the solar wind, also controlling low cloud cover as a negative feedback. 1970’s global cooling was during stronger solar wind, and post 1995 global warming during weaker solar wind.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/association-between-sunspot-cycles-amo-ulric-lyons/
A model of future climate based on the observed orbital-climate relationships, but ignoring anthropogenic effects, predicts that the long-term trend over the next several thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation.
Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
For 500,000 years, major climatic changes have
followed variations in obliquity and precession.
— J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton
Click to access Hays1976.pdf
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.