Arctic sea ice much more resilient than thought 

Posted: February 15, 2020 by oldbrew in Analysis, Cycles, Natural Variation, sea ice
Tags: ,

Still waiting


More so than the climate alarm movement thought, anyway. Hence all the failed predictions of disappearing summer sea ice in the Arctic, and erroneous claims of ‘rapid melting’ that no longer hold water 😎
Observations show a ‘sideways trend’ in Arctic sea ice volume since around 2010, which perhaps not by chance follows a significant downturn in solar cycle intensity.
– – –
In recent years the Arctic sea ice has shown great resiliency and is currently at higher levels for this time of year when compared to all but two years going back to 2005, says meteorologist Paul Dorian of Perspecta Inc. (via The GWPF).

Overview

Sea ice covers about 7% of the Earth’s surface and about 12% of the world’s oceans and forms mainly in the Earth’s polar regions.

Specifically, much of the world’s sea ice is found within the Arctic ice pack of the Arctic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere and the Antarctic ice pack of the Southern Ocean in the Southern Hemisphere.

While the Antarctic sea ice extent is currently running at levels very close-to-normal, the Arctic sea ice extent is below-normal and has been running generally at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s at which time there was a long-term phase shift from cold-to-warm in the North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature pattern.

In recent years, however, the Arctic sea ice has actually shown great resiliency and is currently at higher levels for this time of year when compared to all but two years going back to 2005.

Continued here – includes discussion of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) climate cycle and the Polar Vortex.

Comments
  1. […] über Arctic sea ice much more resilient than thought  — Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]

  2. Gamecock says:

    “In recent years, however, the Arctic sea ice has actually shown great resiliency and is currently at higher levels for this time of year when compared to all but two years going back to 2005.”

    Bad news. A warmer earth is a better earth. Less sea ice is better. Man has dreamed of a NW Passage for 500 years.

    “Scientists” want us to believe that an ice clogged Arctic is good. AND PEOPLE BELIEVE THEM!

  3. oldbrew says:

    Where does this leave climate models?

  4. DB says:

    “Where does this leave climate models?”

    The current generation of climate models overestimates current Arctic warming rates by 67%. The next generation of models are said to run even hotter.

    The amplified Arctic warming in the recent decades may have been overestimated by CMIP5 models
    Huang et al.
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019GL084385
    Abstract:
    Realistically representing the Arctic amplification in global climate models (GCMs) represents a key to accurately predicting the climate system’s response to increasing anthropogenic forcings. We examined the amplified Arctic warning over the past century simulated by 36 state-of-the-art GCMs against observation. We found a clear difference between the simulations and the observations in terms of the evolution of the secular warming rates. The observed rates of the secular Arctic warming increase from 0.14°C/decade in the early 1890s to 0.21°/decade in the mid-2010s, while the GCMs show a negligible trend to 0.35°C/decade at the corresponding times.

    The overestimation of the secular warming rate in the GCMs starts from the mid-20th century and aggravates with time. Further analysis indicates that the overestimation mainly comes from the exaggerated heating contribution from the Arctic sea ice melting. This result implies that the future secular Arctic warming may have been over-projected.

    DB2

  5. ivan says:

    So the unvalidated models are wrong again – why should anyone believe anything based on models only?

    Maybe it would be better for the alleged scientists to go out and actually measure things in the real world even if it is freezing out there. And while they are at it it would be a good idea to drop all their preconceived ideas and report just the facts.

  6. oldbrew says:

    An Extended Solar Cycle 23 with Deep Minimum Transition to Cycle 24: Assessments and Climatic Ramifications [2010]

    Climate models may need to reconsider the importance of reduced TSI for an extended quiet period, given that solar variability (at this point in time) has been relegated to having virtually no effect on predictions of twenty-first-century global warming.

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3831.1
    [same link as ‘downturn’ in the post intro.]
    – – –
    ‘Relegated’ 😎
    Looks like the modellers didn’t ‘reconsider’. Alarmism and reality now going in opposite directions.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/02/14/models-reconsidered-there-is-no-climate-emergency/

  7. oldbrew says:

    The alarmists resort to diversions such as making a big deal about a random warm temp reading on the edge of the Antarctic.

    Antarctica has exceeded 20C for the first time, after researchers logged a temperature of 20.75C on an island off the coast of the continent.

    Brazilian scientist Carlos Schaefer told AFP they had “never seen a temperature this high in Antarctica”.

    But he warned the temperature, logged on 9 February, was just one reading and not part of a long-term data set.
    [bold added]

    https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/antarctica-temperature-exceeds-20c-for-first-time/ar-BBZZChL

    Are there any ‘long-term datasets’ for Antarctica?

  8. oldbrew says:

    Looking like another dud prediction from ‘study says’…

    Climate Catastrophe Will Hit Tropics Around 2020, Rest Of World Around 2047, Study Says
    10/14/2013 Updated Dec 12, 2013

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-catastrophe-to-hi_b_4089746

  9. Tom Williams says:

    The climate activists are now going nuts about an ice sheet the size of Seattle breaking from Antarctica. A few years ago, there was buzz about a sheet the size of Connecticut. Old Brew and Tallbloke pointed out that in the 1950s a sheet the size of Massachusetts broke off and – people were then afraid on a new Ice Age. Glaciers are not snowbanks. They are rivers of ice and snow. They flow like rivers and are fed like rivers – so flowing to the oceans is not unusual.

  10. oldbrew says:

    The inland snowfall counters the losses at the tip of a glacier.

  11. oldbrew says:

    Another fail for climate doomsters…

    Staying Power Of Kilimanjaro Snow Defies Al Gore’s Gloomy Forecast
    Date: 17/02/20 The Times

    There were also abnormally high snowfalls in 2018, which led to the highest recorded growth for the total snow depth on Tanzania’s inactive volcano, an aggregated increase of 1.2m.

    Mr Swai, 50, a guide who has been to the summit of Kilimanjaro 115 times over the past two decades, also reported his clients’ surprise at seeing “huge glaciers, a couple of storeys high” at its higher camps.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/staying-power-of-kilimanjaro-snow-defies-al-gores-gloomy-forecast/

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