Nicola Scafetta: Multiscale Analysis of the Instantaneous Eccentricity Oscillations of the Planets of the Solar System from 13 000 BC to 17 000 AD

Posted: February 27, 2020 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, Celestial Mechanics, climate, Cycles, data

ISSN 1063-7737, Astronomy Letters, 2019, Vol. 45, No. 11, pp. 778–790.c Pleiades Publishing, Inc., 2019. Nicola Scafetta1*,FrancoMilani2, and Antonio Bianchini3, 41Department of Earth Sciences, Environment and Georesources, University of Naples Federico II,Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo, via Cinthia, 21, 80126 Naples, Italy 2 Astronomical Association Euganea, via N. Tommaseo, 70, 35137 Padova, Italy3INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova, Vicolo dell’Osservatorio 5, I-35122 Padova, Italy 4 Department of Physics and Astronomy, Universit `a degli Studi di Padova, via Marzolo 8, 35131 Padova, Italy Received May 18, 2019; revised October 2, 2019; accepted October 23, 2019

Abstract—The high-resolution Jet Propulsion Laboratory DE431 and DE432 planetary ephemeris are used to evaluate the instantaneous eccentricity functions of the orbits of the planets of the solar system from 13 000 BC to 17 000 AD at different time scales. Spectral analyses are performed to determine the frequencies and the amplitudes of the detected perturbations from 0.1-year to 10 000-year periods.Taken as contiguous pairs (Mercury-Venus, Earth-Mars, Jupiter-Saturn, and Uranus-Neptune), we found anti-phase patterns between contiguous planets at specific time scales (30 000 years): namely,the eccentricity of one planet increases while the other decreases. Venus and Earth instead appear in phase. However, on shorter time scales the phase coupling becomes more complex and irregular. Yet,Jupiter and Saturn present a π/2 phase coupling at the 1000-year scale. Periodogram analysis of the planetary eccentricity functions shows several fast fluctuations whose magnitudes indicate the strength of their mutual interactions where the Jovian planets significantly perturb the orbits of the inner planets.Besides, the wavelet power spectrum and wavelet squared coherence spectrum analyses are adopted to examine the relationships in time-frequency space between the eccentricity functions of each couple of terrestrial and Jovian planets. The analysis reveals the complexity and the evolution of the gravitational couplings perturbing each other planetary orbits. In some cases and for specific frequencies, this analysis technique also led to the discovery that the coherence phase can rotate clockwise or anticlockwise. The eccentricity function of the orbit of Jupiter presents large oscillations with periods of about 60 and 900–960 years, mostly due to the interaction with Saturn. These oscillations also correspond to oscillations found in several geophysical records. The eccentricity functions of Uranus and Neptune are characterized by a large 4300-year oscillation. The eccentricity function of Pluto is characterized by a large nearly 20 000-year modulation.

DOI: 10.1134/S1063773719110094 Keywords: eccentricity function, orbital perturbations, planetary system.

Full paper here (be quick)

  1. tallbloke says:

  2. tallbloke says:

  3. tallbloke says:

    Link broken on the second tweet from Patrick but the newly published paper from Scafetta is here for anyone who can access it.

  4. oldbrew says:

    For Uranus-Neptune ‘4250-4300 years’ we have:
    26 U-N conjunctions = 25 Neptune orbits = 51 Uranus orbits (51 – 26 = 25) = ~4285 years.

    Re the ‘900-960 years’ of Jupiter oscillations, try 80 Jupiter = 949 years = 869 J-E conjunctions.
    869 * 1.09206 = 949.00014 y

  5. oldbrew says:

    Re the ‘Great Inequality’: the 120 degrees referred to corresponds to 2503/3 = 854.33 years (42 J-S), based on 117.14702 (* 126 = 360.013 * 41) degrees per mean J-S conjunction.

    Paper: ‘In about 900–960 years, the Trigon rotates by about 120◦ and its triangular geometry returns to the initial orientation relative to the Zodiac (see Fig. 4).’

    But the paper does also say: ‘However, in the scientific literature, the proposed length of this cycle varied from 800 years (Kepler 1606) to 940 years (Ma’shar 2000).’

  6. When the history of this time — in all fields, not just the sciences — is written, it will be found that avoidance behavior in favor of pet dogmas, rather than good, honest reasoning, wasted everyone’s time. Trying to explain the fake global warming — and using the false Milankovitch assumptions — is just refusing to see the stable design of the entire solar system, which is the truth of it all.

    Why I Don’t Believe in Milankovitch (Part 1)

    Back in 2005, I wrote a short paper on the orientation of the ecliptic, and thus of the entire solar system, with respect to the celestial sphere, proving that the probability it was effected by chance alone, and not design, was on the order of 1 in ten thousand million million million (1.7E-22); in other words, it was all placed by design. I may put that 2005 article up as a post on my blog, “The End of the Mystery (The Earth and Man: Setting the Stage)”.

    In fact, the ecliptic north pole (ENP) was deliberately changed, c. 15,000 BC, and the Design I found, centered on the Earth using the celestial sphere (by commemorating deliberate past mappings of the latter onto the former, in the shapes given to various landmasses on the Earth), not only celebrates the “new” ENP, but both those past mappings, AND the fragmented “sacred” remembrance of precise details of the Design among ancient civilizations, in ways that are world-famous and central to those populations even today, show precisely — precisely — where the ENP formerly was on the celestial sphere; see:

    Challenge to Science III: The ‘gods’, the Design, and Man

    The Design disproves, not just the central theories of all of the earth and life sciences, but the very paradigm — the extended Darwinian paradigm — which has governed all accepted scientific research since Darwin. Chance has been disproven.

  7. oldmanK says:

    Do not forget John A Eddy and the Eddy cycle (whatever that was then; 975+/-53, to be revised/adjusted?).

    Eddy’s cycle did not only correlate with the DACP and Little Ice-age (Tallbloke’s tweet above – graph), it correlated with five earlier consecutive events.(see link below).

    A couple of days ago a sixth correlation was made. See video for the Minoan and other civilizations’ collapse starting c. 1280bce (video at 22:00 and 35:00)

    (link: )

  8. JB says:

    Over the last 2 years I have been slowly accumulating scientific information regarding the actual existence of the planet Tiamat, as referred to in the Babylonian/Sumerian Creation epic.Some of that information was presented in Allan & Delair’s book The Day the Earth Nearly Died (British version). The part that struck me about the scenario is how from 12KYA the temperature oscillations on earth have “stabilized” since then, as presented in ice core dating. Those temperature swings as has been shown here by those contributors to be indexed to the present orbital resonances suggests to me that before the time Tiamat was destroyed, temperature swings were much greater, and appear to corroborate Plato’s Critias account of Antediluvian weather extremes. There is also some indication in the literature that in Antediluvian times the earth’s obliquity was radically different. My guess is that Tiamat was causing temperature cycles too extreme for humanoids to thrive. Perhaps someone of far greater analytical ability could model the solar system along Scaffeta’s analysis, including Tiamat. Its like someone already knew how to smooth things out by getting rid of a planet.

    Accordingly I synthesized a planet to represent Tiamat, based on the orbital and gravitational parameters of the rest of the solar system at present. Initially, it was a scaling up of Ceres to a gravity equal to earth. I later tried 1.5x gravity and did not find a significant difference in fitting the planetary curves.

    Tiamat Data
    Planetary Radius: 16,565,903 meters
    Orbital Radius: 414,100,000,000 meters
    Gravitational Force: 8.43821E15 ms^-2m^2
    Estimated Mass: 4.03016 E25 kg
    Orbital Period: 1681.29 Earth days
    Gravitational Force vs Volume lies along the same slope from Earth to Jupiter
    Mass to Volume ratio lies along the curve beginning at Mars, peaking at Saturn
    Rotational Retardation follows the general decaying curve from Earth to Saturn
    Planetary Radius vs Orbital Radius follows the same curve from Mercury to Saturn
    Orbital Velocity vs Rotational Velocity follows the decaying slope from Venus to Jupiter

    Most of Tiamat’s characteristics emulate those of the giant planets. What is curious is that both Uranus and Neptune do not fit the curves formed by the rest of the planets. It is as though they are either interlopers, arriving post solar system creation, OR there is some kind of inversion at the boundary of Saturn, where the Sun’s influence makes some kind of inversion. In some parametric instances, they appear like the inner planets, but in others, as giants. Such anomalies are also consistent with their odd obliquity and magnetic field alignments. In virtually every parameter, they are unlike the rest of the planets.

    Of note also, is the particular time in which the destruction of Tiamat and the Earth flooding took place. Brophy shows that at 10909 BCE the Earth was in alignment with the Galactic Center northern culmination, vernal equinox sunrise, as viewed on the Giza Plateau–the “new” navel of the Earth after being tilted relative to previous ages. It is also the same period when the Sun is closest to its companion star, as proposed by the BRI.

    So, was the solar system “designed?” So far I keep finding information of one kind or another that fits with the scenario of someone(s) deliberately changing the solar system’s natural evolution to accommodate the proliferation a very climate sensitive species.

  9. stpaulchuck says:

    at first I was all “meh” about this, but then I remembered Scafetta had published several papers and defenses concerning the harmonics of the Solar System and some extra solar influences that ‘just happen’ to line up with Earth’s climate changes.

    Throw in a few volcanoes and meteor/comet collisions and cosmic rays and pretty soon the entire AGW scam just dumps itself on the curb.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Paper: the nearly 6-year harmonics of the eccentricity of Mercury beats with a period of about 125 years

    That’s 519 Mercury orbits = 125 years = 394 conjunctions (519 – 125)

    ‘nearly 6-year’: 21*6 = 126

  11. oldmanK says:

    JB above says “– and appear to corroborate Plato’s Critias account of Antediluvian weather extremes. There is also some indication in the literature that in Antediluvian times the earth’s obliquity was radically different.”

    Plato was very ‘matter of fact’ about his story, something in it nobody has smelled before. Here in this extract “Now this has the form of a myth, but really signifies a declination of the bodies moving in the heavens around the earth, and a great conflagration of things upon the earth, which recurs after long intervals”. Only a change of obliquity can result in such ‘declinations’, and it is not precession.

    However there may be no need to invoke extraneous bodies to account for the ‘weather extremes’ with ~970yr cycles, since like the ‘Drinking bird – – it seems that inherent earth instabilities climate/dynamic can account for the ice-core evidence; ie periodic swings to what seem as extremes.

  12. oldbrew says:

    Obliquity-driven expansion of North Atlantic sea ice during the last glacial (2015)

    North Atlantic late Pleistocene climate (60,000 to 11,650 years ago) was characterized by
    abrupt and extreme millennial duration oscillations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events.
    However, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) 23,000 to 19,000 cal years ago (23 to 19 ka), no D-O events are observed in the Greenland ice cores. Our new analysis of the Greenland δ18O record reveals a switch in the stability of the climate system around 30 ka, suggesting that a critical threshold was passed. Climate system modeling suggests that low axial obliquity at this time caused vastly expanded sea ice in the Labrador Sea, shifting Northern Hemisphere westerly winds south and reducing the strength of meridional overturning circulation. The results suggest that these feedbacks tipped the climate system into full glacial conditions, leading to maximum continental ice growth during the LGM.
    Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) event = 1470 years (various papers)

    1470 * 28 = 41160 years = mean obliquity?
    980 years (Eddy cycle?) = 2/3rds of 1470, so 980 * 42 = 1470 * 28

  13. JB says:

    @ oldmanK Yes, and no. There is in the ice core plots a distinctive flattening of the temp excursion over the last 10K years as opposed to the previous peak excursions at the 120K year intervals. SOMETHING changed in the solar system at that time, and it was of such magnitude that the 970 year excursions are much less significant.

  14. oldmanK says:

    @ JB: I bookmarked this link for the overall picture it gives for the last 450k yrs.

    Fig 1 gives four glacial cycles and the start of the fifth, while fig 3, 4 compares cycles. The source of the graphs is reliable. The data is derived from ice-cores. From a wide perspective the four saw-tooths indicate instability. There is evident continuous change. However looking closer on a centennial scale the saw-tooth profile is also one of ‘jagged’ profile which indicates ratcheting rather than a smooth slow change.

    In fig 3 the profile for the last 20kyrs is given, with an indication of the 8k2 BP (6k2bce). What follows seem to be conditioned by the Eddy cycle (second link in my first post above). The 3kyrs after and including the 8k2 event were destructive as evidenced in archaeology and geology (which branches of research/science are beginning to realise. Amos Nur mentioned in video spoke on tectonic rotations and civilisation upheavals – book ). I state that from my own research, which for the past three years has been regularly supplanted with more proxy evidence.

    Thus what can be seen in the last 15k years can be taken as similar in process/mechanism to the earlier four glacial cycles, but always with enough change to the earth geologically (eg the Med changed substantially, as evidenced from the geology and supported by sea bottom sediment studies). What is new here is that the changes occurred in step with the Eddy cycle given as 975+/- 53, and this subject paper is highlighting a 900-960 yr possible ‘tantrums’ from the two solar system big-boys.

  15. oldbrew says:

    Re oldbrew says: February 27, 2020 at 5:18 pm

    Adding Jupiter to Neptune and Uranus we have:
    361 J = 4282.404 years
    51 U = 4284.859
    26 N = 4284.574

    335 J-N (361-26) = 310 J-U (361-51) = 25 U-N (51-26) in 4282-4285 years.
    All divisible by 5 (ratio = 67:62:5).

    So the 4250-4300 period identified by Scafetta et al is a J-U-N creation.
    The 1/5 period is 857 years approx.

  16. Paul Vaughan says:


    ⌊ 164.791315640078 / 84.016845922161 ⌉ = ⌊1.96140802277619⌉ = 2
    164.791315640078 / 2 = 82.395657820039
    i.e. harmonic of 164.791315640078 nearest 84.016845922161 is 164.791315640078 / 2 = 82.395657820039
    4270.09258127429 = (84.016845922161)*(82.395657820039) / (84.016845922161 – 82.395657820039)

  17. oldbrew says:

    PV – 4270.09258127429 is the period where the U-N conjunction completes a multiple (57) of 360 degrees of movement, relative to a given starting position.

    1420 U-N = 1477 N
    1477 – 1420 = 57
    (1420 / 57) * U-N = 4270.12~ years

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