Archive for February, 2020

SMR transporter


The project aims to have the first power generated within 8 to 10 years, and more ex-nuclear sites are being considered. R-R already powers the UK’s nuclear submarine fleet.
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There is a “pretty high probability” that Trawsfynydd could be the site of the UK’s first small nuclear power station, says the company hoping to build it.

Engineering giant Rolls-Royce wants to build a network of mini-reactors, a third of the size of current stations, says BBC Wales.

It hopes to strike a deal with the UK government within the next year.

But it says the site of the old Gwynedd reactor ticks all the boxes to pioneer the technology.

If it goes ahead it would also be one of the first small modular reactors (SMRs) in the world.

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The first two meetings of Climate Assembly UK, dubbed a ‘citizens’ assembly’ on climate change, have taken place in Birmingham over the course of a couple of weekends in January and February.

The climate assembly has brought together 110 randomly selected members of the public to discuss a range of climate issues and policies with a range of experts, including David Attenborough. The task of the assembly, which will meet over two more weekends this spring, is to decide on a set of recommendations for how the government can best meet its pledge to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050.

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Still waiting


More so than the climate alarm movement thought, anyway. Hence all the failed predictions of disappearing summer sea ice in the Arctic, and erroneous claims of ‘rapid melting’ that no longer hold water 😎
Observations show a ‘sideways trend’ in Arctic sea ice volume since around 2010, which perhaps not by chance follows a significant downturn in solar cycle intensity.
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In recent years the Arctic sea ice has shown great resiliency and is currently at higher levels for this time of year when compared to all but two years going back to 2005, says meteorologist Paul Dorian of Perspecta Inc. (via The GWPF).

Overview

Sea ice covers about 7% of the Earth’s surface and about 12% of the world’s oceans and forms mainly in the Earth’s polar regions.

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Saturn seen across a sea of methane on Titan by Huygens probe 2005


Some extracts from an article at Phys.org, bypassing the chemistry details. A research professor commented: “The process could be universal”. Interesting…
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Planetary scientists using the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) revealed the secrets of the atmosphere of Titan, the largest moon of Saturn.

The team found a chemical footprint in Titan’s atmosphere indicating that cosmic rays coming from outside the Solar System affect the chemical reactions involved in the formation of nitrogen-bearing organic molecules.

This is the first observational confirmation of such processes, and impacts the understanding of the intriguing environment of Titan.

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The point of climate alarmism is to try and convince us that we’re the problem. But when nothing much happens and their predictions fail, it falls flat – or should do.

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

If you look carefully it turns out that the apocalyptic Climate Emergency narrative is an empty shell. Just what the looming catastrophe looks like is never explained. As the saying goes, there is no there, there. But there is a good reason for this carefully crafted silence, namely there is no plausible scenario whereby global catastrophe comes from global warming.

As the CLINTEL Manifesto points out, the emergency narrative is based on runaway computer models. As we know from video games, computer modelers can make their models do anything they want them to. The modelers are like fiction writers in this regard. Look at the past 150 years. The global temperature rose about 1 degree C, but the social and economic progress was spectacular. The global poverty was never as low as today. So, what is the problem?

The CLINTEL World Climate Declaration explains it…

View original post 698 more words

Alok Sharma appointed as minister for BEIS and COP26

Posted: February 13, 2020 by tallbloke in climate, Education, government
Tags:
Alok Sharma MP. Image Credit: Wikipedia Commons.

Alok Sharma gets a promotion in the cabinet reshuffle today:

Sharma was born in Agra, India, but moved to Reading with his parents when he was five years old.[3] He was raised in the Reading suburbs of Earley and Whitley Wood and attended Reading Blue Coat School in Sonning[4] and the University of Salford, from where he graduated with a BSc in Applied Physics with Electronics in 1988.[5]

Sharma subsequently qualified as a chartered accountant.

Sharma was appointed Secretary of State for International Development by Boris Johnson following the resignation of Rory Stewart in July 2019. Upon ascending to the role, he said: “I am delighted… We will work across the whole of government to deliver Brexit and make sure UK aid is tackling global challenges that affect us all.”[20]

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Science has become a footnote in the mad rush to embrace so-called green energy policies, or so it seems. But is the climate likely to notice anything?
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The climate policy debate has died. Its autopsy shows who killed it, says Larry Kummer @ Fabius Maximus.

Summary: The climate policy debate ran for 30 years but produced little action (it ranks #17 of the public’s top 18 concerns). Now it has died. The autopsy reveals not just who killed it but also disturbing insights about America.

This is post #404 in a series about climate change that I began 12 years ago.

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The linked article contains more video material and images.
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In February 2020, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory—SDO—is celebrating its 10th year in space, reports Phys.org.

Over the past decade the spacecraft has kept a constant eye on the sun, studying how the sun creates solar activity and drives space weather—the dynamic conditions in space that impact the entire solar system, including Earth.

Since its launch on Feb. 11, 2010, SDO has collected millions of scientific images of our nearest star, giving scientists new insights into its workings.

SDO’s measurements of the sun—from the interior to the atmosphere, magnetic field, and energy output—have greatly contributed to our understanding of our closest star.

SDO’s images have also become iconic—if you’ve ever seen a close up of activity on the sun, it was likely from an SDO image.

SDO’s long career in space has allowed it to witness nearly an entire solar cycle—the sun’s 11-year cycle of activity.

Here are a few highlights of SDO’s accomplishments over the years.

Image credit: United Airlines


More wreck-o than eco? Here we find that ‘biodiesel from food crops emits an average of 1.8 times as much CO2 as fossil fuels which increases to three times more in case of biodiesel from palm oil.’ Looks like another non-solution to the claimed problem.

The UK’s aviation industry is touting biofuels as a way to make plane transport greener. But some biofuels can end up doing more harm than good, says Wired.

In the next 30 years, the number of flights is expected to increase by 70 per cent.

Unless things change, by 2050 the aviation industry will have used up more than a quarter of all the carbon dioxide we can safely emit while keeping global warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius.

But the aviation industry says it has a way out.

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Credit: planetsave.com


No great surprise there. As usual the idea is to demonize the essential trace gas carbon dioxide, paving the way to useless ‘solutions’ to an imaginary problem. Note: Attenborough is *not* a climate expert, and admits so himself.

The first two meetings of Climate Assembly UK, dubbed a ‘citizens’ assembly’ on climate change, have taken place in Birmingham over the course of a couple of weekends in January and February, writes Ben Pile (via Climate Change Dispatch).

The climate assembly has brought together 110 randomly selected members of the public to discuss a range of climate issues and policies with a range of experts, including David Attenborough.

The task of the assembly, which will meet over two more weekends this spring, is to decide on a set of recommendations for how the government can best meet its pledge to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050.

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Once again old-fashioned weather has blown up in the faces of know-it-all climate alarm propagandists.

PA Pundits - International

From the team at CFACT ~

By Joanne Nova~

So much for the “hotter drier” Australian future they were warning us about 3 weeks ago.

As predicted, droughts in Australia often end in floods. It is the way it has always been. Today people are already being rescued from the rising water and possibly another 200 -300mm of rain may fall before Sunday warns the BOM. Many fires have been extinguished.

Climate change has made no difference to the drought trends in Australia in the last 178 years and climate models are totally skilless at rainfall. When will the climate modelers admit that these are natural cycles?

‘We’re only half way through’: East coast smashed by flashflooding and heavy winds

Forecasters become increasingly concerned that even more rain could fall even faster than expected as five people have been rescued from floods.

The NSW State Emergency Service issued a…

View original post 356 more words


Enormous expense, twenty times more wind turbines, hydrogen production, much less meat eating, carbon capture, hard ‘lifestyle changes’ and so on. Maybe travel to work on a flying pig – and all for what?

It won’t be easy, but clean energy analyst Chris Goodall believes that the UK is entirely capable of becoming carbon neutral, says BBC Science.

Belatedly, the world has realised it has to eliminate greenhouse gases within a few decades.

The UK has promised ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050. Is this is an achievable aim? How much will it cost? In what ways will our lifestyles need to change?

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There’s been a data update for the three planet system of star YZ Ceti, which featured in our 2018 post: Why Phi? – resonant exoplanets of star YZ Ceti. According to NASA the third planet YZ Ceti d is a ‘super Earth’, about 1.14 times the mass of our planet.

The paper:
‘The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs.
Characterization of the nearby ultra-compact multiplanetary system YZ Ceti’
(Submitted on 5 Feb 2020)

With an additional 229 radial velocity measurements obtained since the discovery publication, we reanalyze the YZ Ceti system and resolve the alias issues.

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H/T The GWPF

The UK government seems to have a bad case of climate derangement syndrome at the moment, in the run-up to the COP26 conference in Glasgow this year. How much economic damage could its futile attempts to reduce the supply of essential carbon dioxide (CO2) to the Earth’s ecosystems do?
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Homeowners could be forced to replace their gas boilers to ensure the UK meets its target to be carbon neutral by 2050, ministers are warning.

The Government will publish a White Paper later this year which will set out the “bigger decisions” that the UK has to make to meet the target, says the Sunday Telegraph.

Lord Duncan of Springbank, the Climate Change minister, said that the White Paper will consider whether the Government should ban gas central heating altogether from all homes.

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Needless to say, this won’t please either the real or fake climate obsessives.
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In his recent presentation to the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Professor Gautam Kalghatgi answers the question: ‘Is it really the end of internal combustion engines and petroleum in transport?’

Gautam Kalghatgi is currently a Visiting Professor at Imperial College London (Mechanical Engineering) and also at Oxford University (Engineering Science).

He is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, Society of Automotive Engineers, Institute of Mechanical Engineers and the Combustion Institute and an Honorary Fellow of the International Society for Energy, Environment and Sustainability.

He worked for 31 years at Shell Research followed by 8 years in Saudi Aramco before retiring in June 2018.

Source: The GWPF

What happens to all the old wind turbines?

Posted: February 7, 2020 by oldbrew in Big Green, turbines, wind
Tags:

Recycled wind turbine tower [image credit: inhabitat.com]


Apart from becoming school playground novelty items, what else is there?
One process requires pyrolysis: ‘After first chopping up the blades, pyrolysis breaks up the composite fibres in ovens with an inert atmosphere, at about 450-700C.’
But: ‘The problem is significant amounts of energy are needed to activate the pyrolysis, which might limit its environmental usefulness.’
Indeed, if you’re obsessed with avoiding burning fuels.
Some newer turbine blades are now nearly 100m. long.

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Welcome to the wind turbine graveyard, says BBC News. It stretches a hundred metres from a bend in the North Platte River in Casper, Wyoming.

Between last September and this March, it will become the final resting place for 1,000 fibreglass turbine blades.

These blades, which have reached the end of their 25-year working lives, come from three wind farms in the north-western US state.

Each is about 90m (300ft) long, and will be cut into three, then the pieces will be stacked and buried.

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Map of prevailing trade winds over Earth [credit: Wikipedia]


A change to about 0.01% of the atmosphere is now claimed to be speeding up the oceans by making winds stronger. Really? They used to claim global warming was weakening the Pacific trade winds:
“The researchers predict another 10 percent decrease by the end of the 21st century. The effect, attributed at least in part to human-induced climate change, could disrupt food chains and reduce the biological productivity of the Pacific Ocean, scientists said.” (2006 report)

A study published today in the journal Science Advances, suggests global ocean circulation has accelerated during the past two decades, reports Phys.org.

The research team found that oceanic kinetic energy shows a statistically significant increase since early 1990s, calculating a 36-percent acceleration of global mean ocean circulation.

The trend is particularly prominent in the global tropical oceans, reaching depths of thousands of meters.

The deep-reaching acceleration of the ocean circulation is mainly induced by a planetary intensification of surface winds, authors said.

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Earth’s tilt moves back and forth between about 22 and 24.5 degrees

If there is a mean ratio of 5:8 it would be linked to the known variation of Earth’s tilt, which in turn causes variation in the precession and obliquity periods.

Encyclopedia Britannica’s definition says:
Precession of the equinoxes, motion of the equinoxes along the ecliptic (the plane of Earth’s orbit) caused by the cyclic precession of Earth’s axis of rotation…The projection onto the sky of Earth’s axis of rotation results in two notable points at opposite directions: the north and south celestial poles. Because of precession, these points trace out circles on the sky.

(Axial precession is another term for ‘precession of the equinoxes’).

Our 2016 unified precession post started with this quote from Wikipedia (bolds added):
Because of apsidal precession the Earth’s argument of periapsis slowly increases; it takes about 112000 years for the ellipse to revolve once relative to the fixed stars. The Earth’s polar axis, and hence the solstices and equinoxes, precess with a period of about 26000 years in relation to the fixed stars. These two forms of ‘precession’ combine so that it takes about 21000 years for the ellipse to revolve once relative to the vernal equinox, that is, for the perihelion to return to the same date (given a calendar that tracks the seasons perfectly).

Three linked precessions


In units of 1,000 years:
21 * (16/3) = 112
112 * (3/13) = 25.846~ (near 26)
25.846~ * (13/16) = 21
That was the number theory of the ‘unified precession’ post, i.e. a 3:13:8*2 ratio.

Where might the obliquity period, known to be somewhere near 41,000 years, fit into that?

Referring to the chart (above, right) and converting decimals to whole numbers:
AY – SY = 328 = 109*3, +1
SY – TY = 1417 = 109*13
AY – TY = 1745 (328 + 1417) = 109*16, +1
[327:1417:1744 = 3:13:16]

So that supports the number theory.

Starting out, I just updated the chart to include an entirely theoretical obliquity period of 8/5 times axial precession, linking it to the other known cycles as suggested by my 2016 comment to the unified precession post, here.

That post was a follow-up to: Why Phi? – some Moon-Earth interactions, which showed how:
The period of 6441 tropical years (6440.75 sidereal years) is one quarter of the Earth’s ‘precession of the equinox’.
Multiplying by 4: 25764 tropical years = 25763 sidereal years.
The difference of 1 is due to precession.

[NB Wikipedia quotes 25772 years (‘disputed – discuss’) for this precession cycle, but as it’s not a fixed number the question is: what is the mean period? Earth is currently around the mid-point of the tilt variation, moving towards minimum tilt i.e a shorter precession period. Astronoo says 25765 years.]

But then I came across two things: a paper by EPJ van den Heuvel, cited in Wikipedia, and another entry in Wikipedia (see below), that together suggested viable alternative numbers but with the same 5:8 ratio.

On the Precession as a Cause of Pleistocene Variations of the Atlantic Ocean Water Temperatures
— E. P. J. van den Heuvel (1965)

From the summary:
‘The Fourier spectrum (Fig. 8) shows two significant main periods, P1 = 40000 years and P2 = 12825 years*. The first period agrees well with the period of the oscillations of the obliquity of the ecliptic. The second period corresponds very well with the half precession period.’
[*But the specific periods found were: 42857, 39474 and 12825 years]

From Wikipedia – Axial tilt – long term (Wikipedia):
‘For the past 5 million years, Earth’s obliquity has varied between 22° 2′ 33″ and 24° 30′ 16″, with a mean period of 41,040 years. This cycle is a combination of precession and the largest term in the motion of the ecliptic.’

41040:12825 = 16:5 exactly. Since 12825 is the half precession period, the full period ratio is 8:5 as in the chart, but with slightly different numbers.

If this is correct, the 25764y period in the chart would need adjusting by a factor of 225/226:
25764 * (225/226) = 25650 = 2 * 12825

The Wikipedia obliquity period of 41040 years is divisible by 19, so is an exact number of Metonic cycles (2160), as is the revised axial precession of 25650 years (1350). So the alternative period equals a reduction of 6 Metonic cycles of axial precession. The idea of a role for the Moon in Earth’s obliquity has been put forward before.

Of course 225/226 represents less than half a percent of correction, so could be argued to be negligible.
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Now something else has turned up, written around the same time as two Talkshop posts already referred to:
The Secret of the Long Count, by John Martineau

In the ‘Long Count’ section of the article the writer also puts forward an argument for a (mean) 5:8 ratio of obliquity and axial (equinoctial) precession, using some historical context (see below).

So at least one other person has been thinking along the same lines. Note that 2,3,5,8 and 13 are Fibonacci numbers.


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The Secret of the Long Count

In the summer of 2012 I visited Carnac, accompanied by Geoff Stray. Howard Crowhurst runs an annual midsummer conference there and we had been invited to speak at the 2012-themed event. Halfway through his presentation, Crowhurst was describing his hunches surrounding megalithic awareness of the 41,000-year cycle, when he casually mentioned a startling fact:

The 41,000-year cycle very precisely consisted of eight Mayan Suns.

I did a double take. Eight suns, but five made precession! Startled, I cornered Geoff Stray. He had already come across the eight Suns figure for the obliquity cycle, but not realised the significance of 5:8, while Howard Crowhurst had been unaware of the fact that five Suns gave a value for Precession. We had cracked it.

One Mayan Sun is 5,125 years.

Five Suns give the Precessional Cycle

5 x 5125 = 25,625 years (current value 25,700 years, 75 years out)

Eight Suns give the Earth’s Obliquity Cycle.

8 x 5125 = 41,000 years (current value 41,040 years, 40 years out)

Five and eight! The two long cycles that most affect the Earth relate as 5:8 and are both encoded by the Long Count. The Maya must have known. No wonder they drew so many pictures of jawbones. Five and eight! The same two numbers displayed by human teeth are the same two numbers as those used by the plants all around us, and these are the same two numbers that connect us with our closest neighbour Venus, and the same two numbers that relate the two long cycles that affect Earth-bound astronomy.

[emphasis by the author]

From: The Secret of the Long Count, by John Martineau

Image Credit: freepik.com

Electrek reports:

IONITY, a European EV charging network owned by BMW, Daimler, Ford, Hyundai, Kia, and VW Group (with Audi and Porsche) has announced that prices will be going up over 500% starting January 31 as they transition to a pay-per-kWh system.

Previously, IONITY charged a flat, fixed rate of €8 for a DCFC charging session. This was a good deal if you showed up with an empty battery and filled most of the way. If you arrived with, say, 10% battery remaining, and added 60 kWh during your charging session, then you’d get away with paying about €0.13 per kWh. For context, in France, electricity costs about €0.19 per kWh at home, and €0.24 per kWh at Tesla Superchargers. In Germany, you pay €0.30 per kWh at home, and €0.33 at Tesla Superchargers in Germany.

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Apologies to Josh

Today, the UK government will commit to destroying the nation’s economy. It published this suicide note on its website.

The Prime Minister will today, Tuesday 4 February, launch the next UN climate conference COP26, joined by Sir David Attenborough and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte at an event in central London.

At the event, he will set out the UK’s position as a world leader in the response to climate change, having made a legal commitment to achieve net zero emissions, and call all nations to strive towards this goal.

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