Germany’s weather service starts ten-year forecast ‘to improve climate adaptation’

Posted: March 18, 2020 by oldbrew in climate, Forecasting, Temperature, weather, wind
Tags: ,

Credit: [click on image to enlarge]

That’s the idea anyway. They expect warmer weather to lead to drier conditions upto 2025. Perhaps a bit odd on the face of it, as the steamy tropics have rainforests whereas icy Antarctica is the driest continent on Earth.
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A new decade-long weather forecast made by Germany’s Meteorological Service (DWD) is supposed to improve the country’s climate change adaptation capabilities, says Clean Energy Wire.

“Our new forecast for the next ten years fills the gap between existing climate forecasts for the next months and long-term climate projections until the end of the century,” said DWD climatology head Tobias Fuchs.

The forecast project, supported by Germany’s research ministry, could be used by policymakers, business leaders and others to adapt their investment decisions to climate change, he added.

The forecast for the current decade for Germany estimates that average temperatures in the country could rise by up to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the reference period 1981-2010. In some regions, temperatures could even rise by up to two degrees Celsius on average by 2030.

Moreover, precipitation volumes are expected to stay below average until 2025, which could be understood as a call to action for water providers to take precautions to ensure sufficient supply, Fuchs said.

Wind farm operators might also benefit from the long-term forecast by planning reserve capacities for low-wind years.

Full article here.

  1. Curious George says:

    They may be unaware of ice core studies showing that cold temperatures correspond to a spreading desertification.

  2. Stephen Richards says:

    I suspect this forecast will be of the same quality as the UKMO monthly and 10 year. They were forecast from the same model and never correct .

  3. Bob Greene says:

    I’m impressed. The ones around Central Virginia aren’t all that good for 3 days. In fact, they update today’s forecast 4 times per day.

  4. gds44 says:

    Reblogged this on Gds44's Blog.

  5. ivan says:

    Since they can’t get the forecast for next week correct in detail just how do they expect to get the next 10 years detailed? Maybe they consider ‘winter is cold and summer is hot’ to be an exact forecast – I don’t!

  6. oldbrew says:

    precipitation volumes are expected to stay below average until 2025

    But evaporation increases with temperature. Why would that forecast be expected to work?

    Science says:
    Evaporation rates are higher at higher temperatures because as temperature increases, the amount of energy necessary for evaporation decreases.
    . . .
    Also, warm air can “hold” a higher concentration of water vapor, so you can think of there being more room for more water vapor to be stored in warmer air than in colder air.

  7. oldbrew says:

    About that climate adaptation…

  8. hunterson7 says:

    Lenin’s 5 year plan, Stalin’s 5 year plan, Mao’s great Leap Forward, Pol Pot’s Great Pastoralization, Merkel’s 10 year plan.
    All pretentious ideological catastrophic failures.

  9. Phoenix44 says:

    Presumably they are saying it’s going to be drier because the last few years have been a bit drier? What’s going g to happen with Climate Change at any given point inevitably is whatever has recently happened that is a bit below or above average.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Germany often gets the leftovers of whatever weather hit Britain off the Atlantic a day or two earlier, according to my local sources 😎

  11. Chaswarnertoo says:

    Propaganda. Goebbels would be proud.

  12. Coeur de Lion says:

    Whatever happened to ‘ chaotic , coupled non-linear’?

  13. spetzer86 says:

    At least it won’t take long to disprove a 1.5 degree/10year prediction

  14. oldbrew says:

    More work for crooked temperature adjusters.

  15. oldbrew says:

    New Paper: Observational Data Point to Less Warming
    Date: 19/03/20 American Association for the Advancement of Science

    An important new study has found that when climate models are constrained by observational data, they yield lower estimates for climate sensitivity.
    – – –
    *Constrained* by observational data = forced to take notice of reality?