England’s water resource muddle

Posted: March 27, 2020 by oldbrew in climate, MET office, Uncertainty, weather
Tags:


Mixed messages ahead. Can anyone explain the apparent discrepancies?

The UK Department of Environment, Food & Rural Affairs has issued a warning: large areas of England will face significant risk of drought due to climate change, and water companies need to find billions of extra liters per day by 2050 to keep up, reports New Atlas.

But days earlier we had this from the Met Office Press Office:
Climate change to bring heavier rainfall events.

They say:
“WVL is the number of days that water vapour typically stays in the atmosphere before it is rained out. Climate change is causing the atmosphere to warm, which allows the air to hold more water, increasing WVL…
…under a scenario assuming high-emissions of greenhouse gases – WVL is projected to increase from eight days to ten, an increase of 25%. This is expected to result in heavier rainfall events in the future.”

Talkshop Summary: ‘significant risk of drought due to climate change’ and ‘heavier rainfall events in the future’. Good luck working that out.
– – –
Paper: Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    DEFRA says: “Supply is expected to decrease by 7 percent by 2045, due to drier weather expected under current climate change trends. Less rain will lead to less ground and surface water”

    Met Office blog: “For every degree of temperature increase, the air can hold roughly seven per cent more water, and global-mean precipitation increases by between one to three per cent. This results in an overall moistening trend.”

    Does not compute 🤔

  2. ivan says:

    They talk about global warming yet in my part of southern France we just had another snow dump on the local mountain overnight.

    The more they waffle on the more it appears they don’t have a clue about the overall weather patterns. Maybe they are relying on using garbage as input to their computer models and are believing the output of those models not realising it is also garbage.

  3. Curious George says:

    That’s the beauty of the Climate Change moniker: Every change is dangerous. We are sure that it will be the drought, and we are sure that it will be floods. Down with fossil fuels!

    Does anybody know, how this differs from creationism?

  4. Damian says:

    “Does anybody know, how this differs from creationism?”
    Yeah!
    Creationists are trying to apply the scientific process to something that cannot be described scientifically whilst climate scientists are, uhh…

  5. Dodgy Geezer says:

    it’s quite simple.
    Climate Change means that bad things will happen to you unless you do what we say and pay more taxes.

    For instance, your house will be swept away by floods and sea level will rise, while at the same time droughts will hit agriculture and water will be rationed.

  6. stpaulchuck says:

    I’ve overdosed on the raging stupidity of the rent seeking mob beating us about the head and shoulders with ‘global warming’. No matter WHAT happens, it’s all down to AGW and the Satanic Gases.

  7. The Man at the Back says:

    Don’t mock these guys they have simply got out phase. Their projections are cyclical and have been for 20 years or more, as Farmer Flindt pointed out back in 2012.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/charlie-flindt-climate-change-predictions-are-drying-up/

    OR which one didn’t get the memo.

  8. tom0mason says:

    Which part of geography don’t these numbskulls understand?

    The UK is an island off the European coast with prevailing western winds. Winds that travel many hundreds of miles over oceans and seas bringing with them rain. Rainfall in the UK is quite variable and can happen during any season, any week. Overall during modern times (in the last few thousand years) the UK has never suffered very extended (multi-decades or longer) droughts or deluges. It would seem sensible to assume that the weather and climate, especially rain, will continue much like it has for the last few thousand years with odd short periods of localized droughts and deluges.

    See http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/A_Chronological_Listing_of_Early_Weather_Events.pdf for examples of normal but extreme weather events since about 1AD.

  9. Phoenix44 says:

    I find the rain thing very confusing. Yes warmer air holds more water. But then why does that mean more rain unless the air cools to the pre-Climate Change temperature?

  10. oldbrew says:

    Paul Homewood often knocks down these headline-chasing climate claims…

    Droughts? Climate Breakdown? Even the NAO Have Lost The Plot Now.
    MARCH 26, 2020

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/03/26/droughts-climate-breakdown-even-the-nao-have-lost-the-plot-now/

  11. cognog2 says:

    The Met Office does not seem to be aware that the Hydro Cycle operates as a Rankine Cycle. where an increase in energy input triggers an increase in the cycle RATE; but NOT an increase in the MASS involved. Meanwhile the pressure and temperature remains the same. That is what happens in our steam generating plants here on earth; so I expect the same happens in the atmosphere.

  12. Tish Farrell says:

    https://www.zooniverse.org/projects/edh/rainfall-rescue/about/research

    They want help digitising paper records from millions of pre-1961 rain gauges to better understand UK weather. You can sign up to help on-line. They say this about themselves:
    “The aim is to better understand wet, dry and normal periods in our history and help water companies plan for every eventuality. For example, October 1903 was wet. Very wet. Wetter than any month we know about.”
    “More data will help us map out the variations with much greater precision. Other years such as 1921 and periods in the 1880s and 1890s were very dry and we need to understand why. You can help us answer important questions about the British weather!”

  13. stpaulchuck says:

    Tish – what a great idea. We’ve had a number of distributed solution seeking projects over the years where hundreds or even thousands of us out in the hustings install an app that lets our computer be part of the solution network. It works quite well and with today’s bandwidth and number of computers it should be quite a help in accelerating the data transformation.

    Anyone know of an aggregator site for this sort of thing? It would be cool to see what’s out there in need of some support.

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    Great link appeared above for:
    A_Chronological_Listing_of_Early_Weather_Events.pdf

    […] so they stopped working […] And guess what followed […]

  15. tom0mason says:

    I suppose this all fits with what the Forestry Commission published back in 2010.
    From FCRN201, Climate change: impacts and adaptation in England’s woodlands

    Click to access Climate-change-impacts-adaptation-English-woodlands.pdf

    Basically it says that year on year Britain will be getting drier and hotter. They even have modelled ‘evidence’ to ‘prove’ it.

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