Next solar cycle could bring cooler temperatures 

Posted: April 6, 2020 by oldbrew in Cycles, History, predictions, solar system dynamics, Temperature
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Dr David Whitehouse reviews the history of solar cycle predictions in a new paper by the Global Warming Policy Foundation which is published today. The paper, entitled The Next Solar Cycle, And Why It Matters For Climate, can be downloaded here.
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London, 6 April: A former BBC science correspondent says that there remains a real possibility that unusual solar behaviour could influence the Earth’s climate, bringing cooler temperatures for the next decade.

Despite rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the reduction in solar activity along with cooling from other long-term terrestrial climate variables could mean we might see a slowdown in global warming for years.

Dr Whitehouse says: “It is clear that the solar influence on climate is about 0.1 °C a decade so it is important to know when there are low solar activity periods. We have a grasp of the basic mechanism that drives long-term solar activity, but many of the specifics still elude us. Successful predictions of solar cycle strength are therefore few and far between.”

Whitehouse adds that although NASA are predicting that solar cycle 25, which is just beginning, might be moderate-to-weak, the possibility of a very weak cycle, with a measurable effect on the terrestrial climate, remains a real one.
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Talkshop ‘solar cycle’ links here.

  1. oldbrew says:

    NASA (2009): The great uncertainty stems from one simple fact: No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot cycle.

  2. ivan says:

    Oh dear, if it does what will all the UN NWO wonks do to keep the people afraid and hoping they will lead them to safety?

    I fully expect it to be much colder considering that night time temperatures are down around 8°C or less here in my part of the south of France.

  3. oldbrew says:

    NASA: Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate
    Jan. 8, 2013

    Greg Kopp of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, pointed out that while the variations in luminosity over the 11-year solar cycle amount to only a tenth of a percent of the sun’s total output, such a small fraction is still important. “Even typical short term variations of 0.1% in incident irradiance exceed all other energy sources (such as natural radioactivity in Earth’s core) combined,” he says.

    Of particular importance is the sun’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which peaks during the years around solar maximum. Within the relatively narrow band of EUV wavelengths, the sun’s output varies not by a minuscule 0.1%, but by whopping factors of 10 or more. This can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere. [bold added]

    The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate
    [contains pdf link]

  4. Paul Vaughan says:

    0.1 = savage misrepresentation

    Plus Whitehorse ignores MEASURED circulatory geometry.

  5. Ian W says:

    Any drop in global temperatures will be blamed on the industrial shut downs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That should give 5 years or so of cover.

  6. stpaulchuck says:

    labeling normal and ordinary as ‘unusual’ typical of these warmist clowns.

    We’ve had solar science moving more and more solidly into the ‘cold’ camp over the last ten years as the sunspot cycle timing and more science about the effects of the solar wind re cosmic rays/cloud formation get on more solid ground every day. My money is on cooling over the next two or three decades. Probably not as bad as the LIA, but you never know.

    I wonder if a decade from now the “science community” swings back to the ’70’s mode of “new ice age!!”?
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.” – H.L. Menken
    Consulting: If you’re not part of the solution, there’s good money to be made in prolonging the problem. – anon.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Link between solar activity and the UK’s cold winters
    Date: April 19, 2010
    Source: Institute of Physics

    A link between low solar activity and jet streams over the Atlantic could explain why, despite global warming trends, people in regions North East of the Atlantic Ocean might need to brace themselves for more frequent cold winters in years to come.
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    The researchers have found strong correlations between weak solar activity and the occurrences of ‘blocking’. As the temperature is affected by a weak Sun so the wind’s patterns also change and, as the warmer westerly winds fail to arrive, the UK is hit by north-easterlies from the Arctic. [bold added]

  8. ren says:

    The northern polar field may have peaked in late 2019 while the southern polar field reached its peak in November 2015.

    This means that the new 25th solar cycle has already begun.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Solar cycle 24 has taken the crown for the most ‘spotless’ days – 1036 as of April 3rd, overtaking SC 14 (1007).
    (spotless data since 1855)
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    NB Wiki’s second table at the link uses different start/end dates.