Gerry Pease: Solar outlook

Posted: June 22, 2020 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, Celestial Mechanics, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

From looking at the 30 day Wolf number and NOAA sunspot number it looks like Solar Minimum could have been in December, 2019 but possibly as late as mid-March this year. 

 Coincidentally, there are peaks in barycentric solar torque (dL/dt, where L denotes the Sun’s angular momentum, ref https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553v3) on March 19 and April 24, 2020: 

 Below: the May 24, 2020 barycentric solar torque peak. The Sun and planetary configuration is shown with Carsten Arnholm’s Solar Simulator 2 app.  The torque vector at the center of the Sun points in the counterclockwise direction of the angular momentum vector.  The red cross hairs mark the center of mass (barycenter) of the solar system. The red line from the center of the Sun points in the direction of the Sun’s acceleration, which is always close to the direction of Jupiter.  

 The 2020 minimum solar torque value on Oct 26, just before it ramps up:

 The third solar torque peak in 2020:

  The solar barycentric torque from 2019 to 2039:

 Barycentric solar torque is at a minimum in 2025.  Coincidentally, the peak of solar cycle 25 is expected to be in 2024 or 2025.

   Solar cycles 14-24 are shown below. SC25 is expected to peak in 2024 or 2025. However, there has been no apparent consistent phase relationship between sunspot activity and barycentric solar torque.

Comments
  1. tallbloke says:

    Gerry: there has been no apparent consistent phase relationship between sunspot activity and barycentric solar torque.

    I wonder if the solar simulator shows anything quirky happening with the SIM at the epochs circled in red here:

  2. Gerry Pease says:

    Rog,
    I see that the charts I included did not get posted. Can you repost, including those charts?
    Gerry Pease

  3. Plain Jane says:

    For those desperate to know what is likely to happen with sunspot numbers, and when, and if it might have something to do with the possibility of rainfall in SE Australia, in the southern hemisphere spring this year – what does it mean? Or am I just wayyyy off topic? And does it have anything to do with this bloke http://thelongview.com.au/sunmoonclimate.html

  4. tallbloke says:

    Our Solar activity model predicts a big decline in solar activity to 2035 followed by a minor recovery, with activity for the rest of the century significantly lower than the C20th. The next few years to the peak of solar cycle 25 will tell us whether or not we did well with our prediction we made in 2013. Looking good so far.

  5. tallbloke says:

    “I wonder if the solar simulator shows anything quirky happening with the SIM at the epochs circled in red here:”

    To answer my own question, the epochs where the red circles are coincide with the change in vector of the solar acceleration from leading(lagging) to lagging(leading) the line of gravitation between Sun and Jupiter. This happens every +/- 19.86/2 years, with some wobbling introduced by Uranus and Neptune.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Re. this paper:

    Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle
    (2012)
    Nicola Scafetta

    The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682612000648
    – – –
    I suggest the ~130 year is the beat period of the other two. The 61 is the Jupiter-Saturn motion through 360 degrees (see Kepler trigon), and the 115 (closer to 114.2y) is itself half of the beat period of the de Vries cycle and Charvatova’s ~2402 year SIM period.

    Responses of the basic cycles of 178.7 and 2402 yr in solar–terrestrial phenomena during the Holocene
    (2014)
    I. Charvátová and P. Hejda

    Click to access prp-2-21-2014.pdf

  7. tallbloke says:

    Well remembered putting in a text link to the pdf OB. Prevents page cluttering.

    While we’re on beat periods of well know cycles, Rick Salvador’s paper mentions this:

    Another well-known oscillation found in solar records is
    the de Vries cycle of 208 yr (see McCracken et al., 2013).
    The frequency of 1253 yr, together with the Jose frequency of
    178.8 yr, produces a beat of 208 yr and is used in the model.

  8. tallbloke says:

    Scafetta: The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years,
    OB: I suggest the ~130 year is the beat period of the other two.

    I suggest a lot of these ideas were in the blog post Nicola took the basis of his 2012 paper from. 😉

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/08/05/jackpot-jupiter-and-saturn-solar-cycle-link-confirmed/

  9. oldbrew says:

    TB: Well remembered putting in a text link to the pdf OB. Prevents page cluttering.

    Can’t take any credit – WP did it for me.
    – – –
    The frequency of 1253 yr, together with the Jose frequency of
    178.8 yr, produces a beat of 208 yr and is used in the model.

    All roads lead to Rome 😎

  10. tallbloke says:

    Aha! It looks like my chat with their happiness engineers worked then. Nice one.

    1253 is close to half the ‘long Hallstatt’ period of 2503 years

    In fact, exactly half of 2503 and 178.8 gives a beat period of 208.6 years. Result!

  11. oldbrew says:

    In fact, exactly half of 2503 and 178.8 gives a beat period of 208.6 years. Result!

    Indeed, but we knew that already from their 7:6 ratio i.e. 7-6 = 1 beat.
    – – –
    ‘Responses of the basic cycles of 178.7 and 2402 yr in solar–terrestrial phenomena during the Holocene’

    Their beat period is around 193 years, which also features in Ian Wilson’s PRP paper on JEV but derived in a totally different way.

    See Figs. 12 & 13 here…

    Click to access prp-1-147-2013.pdf

  12. tallbloke says:

    It’s all coming together nicely!

  13. tallbloke says:

    Comment from Greg Glenn via email:

    Tallbloke, Gerry: I want to reply to the relationship between Torque and sunspots.
    Using the dates Tallbloke used to draw red circles on the Torque chart at the beginning and end of an obvious pair of quirky SIM periods, I came up with some interesting observations.
    I copied the dates of the circles over to a Tallbloke chart that was developed by Tallbloke around 2012 to study the electromagnetic influence of the planets, especially Jupiter and Saturn.

    I noticed that the first pair of dates aligned almost exactly with Solar Minimums and that the midpoint, where Tallbloke drew a black line, corresponds with an abnormally low (when following the trendline) Solar Maximum.

    The second pair of red circles (start and stop of quirky SIM period) align almost exactly with two Solar Maximums, with a Solar Minimum at the midpoint.

    My point is that we shouldn’t focus entirely on SIM, or Torque. Electromagnetic connections through the solar wind in the form of flux ropes may contribute as much or more to the timing of solar cycles. It’s likely a combination of both gravitational and electromagnetic forces and that is why it has been difficult to put forth a comprehensive hypothesis.

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