A wetter world as solar grand minimum deepens.

Posted: July 11, 2020 by tallbloke in censorship, climate, Cycles, data, Measurement, modelling, solar system dynamics
Image credit: Tallbloke

A few days ago I tweeted this comment above some remarkable video of the Three Gorges Dam bypass sluices.

Among other people, this was picked up by Willis, the warmist at WUWT, who used it as an opportunity to attack the reality of the Sun-climate connection:

The claims that decreasing solar activity will bring tropospheric cooling, and that the cooling will “wring” a significant amount of water out of the troposphere, both fail to find any observational or theoretical support in the tropospheric temperature and TPW datasets considered above.

As usual, Willis uses the wrong datasets, at the wrong timescale, with the wrong granularity, in order to obscure the truth.

My response to Willis was censored at the venue where he published his article. Not the first time WUWT has failed to give any right of reply, by any means.

Here’s the plot from Clive Best’s excellent blog, which shows that precipitation over land increased at the onset of the Dalton solar grand minimum, and is increasing again since the onset of the Landscheidt solar grand minimum.

Landscheidt said in 1999 that:

If a further connection with long-range variations in sunspot intensity proves reliable, four to five weak sunspot cycles (R < 80) are to be expected after cycle 23

The Dalton minimum started around 1800, and cycle 23 ended in 2009, exactly one De Vries cycle later. Sure enough, the 12 month average of the monthly sunspot number in cycle 24 peaked at 76 (118 using the new numbering system adopted in 2015).

The talkshop’s solar model output for the next 80 years of solar activity agrees well with Landscheidt’s prediction.

Comments
  1. Phil Salmon says:

    In the last few years there was a divergence of opinion regarding the sunspot trajectory. On one side, Prof Zakharova’s solar model predicted a forthcoming deep solar minimum, agreeing with those who see the current situation as mimicking the Dalton minimum (in time with the various solar cycles e.g. the De Vries cycle). On the other hand, the blogger Javier together with Leif Svalgaard and others argued that Zakharova’s model was wrong and the next sunspot cycle number 25 would be stronger than #24 and the sun would be back out of lockdown.

    So … who’s right? I’m guessing by current evidence (although I’m by no means an expert on solar matters) that it’s looking good for Zakharova’s model. Or is it still too early to say?

  2. tallbloke says:

    Too early to say. Svalgaard uses the solar polar fields, which is why you don’t get a prediction from him until shortly before the previous cycle minimum. Our 2013 model and Zharkova’s 2017 model roughly agree that cycle 25 max will be lower than cycle 24.

    We’ll have to wait until around 2026 to see how it turns out.

  3. Phil Salmon says:

    Thanks. BTW your post finally appeared in Willis’ WUWT thread.

  4. tallbloke says:

    Heh. They must have fished it out of the trash bin, because it disappeared from the moderation stack a few minutes after I posted and screenshotted it.

  5. Ulric Lyons says:

    During a centennial solar minimum the AMO is warmer and El Nino conditions increase, so lower troposphere water vapour increases, aided by a decline in low cloud cover and increased surface wind speeds over the oceans.
    This is not a grand solar minimum.

  6. Chaeremon says:

    When Willis wrote both fail to find any observational or theoretical support he excluded other people’s theory without listing any (looks like he objects to know) — that’s the definition of dogma.

  7. tom0mason says:

    Yes indeed Roger, such things are beyond anyone who believes that (excessively) averaging of a single climate factor can show a trend. It doesn’t.
    What Willis also appears misunderstand is that changes in climate (like weather variation) is a local/regional affair — it’s never global.
    Current changes initiated by diminution of solar output take a while to filter through the climate system until they eventually show most markedly in certain localities. These localities are (because of their local features) prone to increases in cooling and/or areas prone to periodic excessive rain. The warmer oceans has only added to the likelihood of the latter leading to excessive inundated in the Far East (China’s 1,000 year rain event?).

  8. Roger I record daily SOI figures. Not sure yet if it has turned the corner towards a La Nina but I can say the drought in Queensland has ended and right now rainfall is normal. Average (126 yrs) at my place (SE Qld) for this month in winter (dry season) is 80.5 mm and we have had 68.5mm so far. Yes, more rainfall will occur after the drought. The last floods (which caused deaths in Brisbane) occurred in 2011 so floods may occur in summer 2021. Also, agree with censorship at WUWT recently my comments have not got up although they include actual facts.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Record Cold in the Mesosphere
    JUNE 9, 2020 / DR.TONY PHILLIPS

    “Temperatures, in particular, are very cold,” she says. “In fact, mid-latitude temperatures (35N-55N) in late May (DOY 142-148) were the coldest of the AIM record”–that is, since 2007 when NASA’s AIM spacecraft began monitoring noctilucent clouds.

    https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/06/09/record-cold-in-the-mesosphere/
    [graphs in link]

  10. tallbloke says:

    Looking at Clive Best’s rainfall plot, We can see a spike in rainfall following the Eruption of Tambora in 1815. Afterwards, rainfall continues to increase until 1825; the time of the solar minimum at the end of two very low solar cycles. Then we see a fall in rainfall over the following decade to 1835, followed by a smaller increase to 1850. Finally, rainfall drops back to the zero ‘anomaly’ by 1865.

    There are several factors to consider here. e.g. The gradual decline of ocean heat content due to solar grand minimum and the increase in surface temperature as solar recovers after 1825.

  11. tallbloke says:

    Ulric: This is not a grand solar minimum.

    Yet.

  12. cognog2 says:

    Well, I am not into all this data and statistical manipulation. I like to stick just to the physics. The Hydro system works as a Rankine Cycle and here a decrease in energy input (a solar minimum?) results in a decrease in evaporation rate and hence a decrease in the condensation rate (rain etc.) . Thus in my view the Title statement is wrong.
    OK you can pile in the leads and lags, the varying locations and all the rest and fiddle with the statistics; but ultimately there will be less rain in a solar minimum.

  13. hunterson7 says:

    Amazing how we see the reaity- that the climate consensus is wrong about almost everything- ignored.
    Thanks for the info on Three Gorges dam. Incredible! The potential for the Three Gorges dam to fail is a real indictment of how deeply flawed the Chinese ruling party is. I wonder how the decisions hey ND letting the reservoir become so full was influenced by climate consensus bs about droughts?

  14. pochas94 says:

    The Chinese are too preoccupied with damaging the interests of the US to worry about the Three Gorges Dam.

  15. Richard Bell says:

    Even if the Dam stays intact the current flooding in China has not been reported in the main stream press …… The devastation to life and property has been massively under reported by China which is nothing new but the long term damage to crops a food shortages might have a big effect on their bottom line. Some film coverage is getting out and it dose not look good for the Chinese people.

  16. tallbloke says:

    Cognog: OK you can pile in the leads and lags, the varying locations and all the rest and fiddle with the statistics; but ultimately there will be less rain in a solar minimum.

    Well, not in the Dalton solar grand minimum, if the data is telling us something useful. And Tom’s point about regional effects is valid.

    Adam, In china I guess.

  17. pochas94 says:

    Just goes to show, if you pick the right data you can always find nothing.

  18. Curious George says:

    Just curious .. tallbloke, how do you check the moderation stack at WUWT? I would like to know, my comments there behave unpredictably.

  19. Paul Vaughan says:

    The only thing I miss about wuwt is Bill Illis commentary — e.g.:

    DO
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-19/#comment-118095

    ENSO
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-19/#comment-117340

    albedo +/-35C
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-19/#comment-118357

    Does anyone know how to do a scrape of all of his comments for the last 4 years and compile them into a single text file?

  20. tallbloke says:

    George, I’m on permanent moderation at WUWT. When I post a comment (very rarely in the last 6 years), It appears as in my screenshot “Your comment is awaiting moderation”.

    When I reload the page, it re-appears just the same if it’s still in the moderation queue. If it doesn’t, it’s been binned by someone.

  21. Ulric Lyons says:

    From solar cycle 26 onward it returns to the roughly 10.4 year long Uranus based sunspot cycles, this centennial minimum only concerns solar cycles 24 and 25.

  22. Curious George says:

    Thanks. My comments sometimes do that, sometimes they just disappear only to be posted minutes or hours later.

  23. oldbrew says:

    By Reuters, Wire Service Content July 11, 2020

    BEIJING (REUTERS) – THE southern Chinese province of Jiangxi issued its highest flood warning on Saturday, predicting a big overflow from a lake that joins the Yangtze River as torrential rain continued to batter much of the country, state media said.

    The provincial government raised its flood-control response level to I from II, the People’s Daily said, the top of China’s four-tier scale, signalling disasters such as dam collapses or extraordinary simultaneous floods in several rivers.

    With downpours continuing to wreak havoc across swathes of China, several other cities along the Yangtze have issued their highest-level flood warnings, with parts of the river threatening to burst its banks because of the incessant rain.
    . . .
    Authorities in Jiangsu province in the Yangtze Delta issued orange flood alerts on Saturday – the second-highest – saying huge, long-lasting volumes of water would pour from the river.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-07-11/chinas-southern-jiangxi-declares-highest-flood-alert

    Also:
    The Jiangxi authorities expect severe regional flooding in Poyang, state television said, which is China’s largest freshwater lake and joins the Yangtze near the city of Jiujiang.

    The level of the lake was rising at an unprecedented pace and had reached 22.65 metres by 9 p.m. Saturday (1300 GMT), above the record high set in 1998 and well over the alert level of 19.50 metres, the CCTV said.
    – – –
    Seriously wet.

  24. P.A.Semi says:

    That flat red line in “Global average daily rainfall Anomaly on land surfaces” is unreal… (or the hockey-sticks on both ends are unreal making the normal variation look flat?)

    (If it’s from CMAP project – what I can verify on it with local radar data and experience – recent central European rainfall: during utter draught with no rain and no dew they had an unchanged rainfall record… It’s a flawed dataset…)
    That “Global Average Temperature Anomaly” is also flawed with some linear adjustment constant…?

    The “Grand Solar minimum” just means, that the magnetic maximums are weaker, but there still is a major difference between solar maximum and solar minimum, which is not seen in temperature data…

    ——-
    So I analyzed NOAA/NCEP re-analysis dataset, which is a NOAA climate model data…


    Total Cloud cover compared with Skin Temperature (land and sea surface temperature), monthly anomaly
    (red triangles are August, blue triangles are February, green plus is April and purple x is November)


    Total cloud cover compared with Skin temperature (land and sea surface temperature), monthly anomaly

    – It can be seen, that the more warm temperature, the more clouds… (Even in daily data, it cannot be said, if temperature raise preceeds cloud cover raise or vice versa…)

    – As I assume, if the water gets into clouds, it will rain down eventually… So the more warm climate, the more it rains, and so the better, because Draught is a real Problem, and not a Warming… Contrary – cooler temperature means less water aloft and more severe draughts… But if the air is polluted with condensation nucleis, the water rains down sooner and does not reach too far into continents, so soot in air may cause draughts inland…

    – There is unreal step fix in temperature record of 0.5°C between years 1979/1980 – they made the past (between 1948 and 1980) appear colder to support their global-warming rhetoric… It can be seen on “cloud cover” record, what the “temperature” record should have been, if it was not tampered with…

    – Where it can be verified independently and where there is less geo-engineering, there is not any much warming… Mostly warming in their dataset is Arctic and Antarctic, elsewhere most variability is in USA… (as evidenced from regional series of this dataset)

    – This year 2020, the Aviation and commuter Traffic almost stopped worldwide… Here in central Europe, although March and April were dry, but May and June had been normal wet and normal not warm months, weather returned to past normal from previous dry hot years…

    – Recently we’ve witnessed Noctilucent Clouds of some geo-engineering attempt over Europe, because water never gets naturally to 80km height, they are probably fixing their warming record…?

    My older analysis of 850 hPa temperature anomaly (in NOAA/NCEP re-analysis dataset) showed, that first they started their Climate Alarmism not vindicated by reality, and only since then the temperature started to linearly rise, most probably due to their geo-engineering, since the recent temperature rise is visible in local measurements also, and it shows the unreal lowering of past temperature, or some geo-engineering attempt during 1976-1981…?

  25. P.A.Semi says:

    Two more charts from NOAA/NCEP re-analysis:


    Total Cloud cover daily anomaly vs. Skin Temperature (land and sea surface temperature) daily anomaly
    (difference from Day-of-Year average to remove seasonal variation)

    – Most of the peaks are well aligned…
    – Unsure, if temperature rise preceeds cloud cover rise or vice-versa…?
    – It shows Moon Perigee and FullMoon arrows… By my experience, FullMoon makes clear skies here (on boundary of continental zone), not sure if it is caused tidally or by radiative forcing?
    – Total Cloud Cover mixes both dense clouds and thin cirrus clouds with contrary effects on temperature…

    Regional monthly “Total Cloud Cover” Anomaly in NOAA/NCEP re-analysis:

    (above monthly “Anomaly of Total Cloud Cover” is here second chart in first row)
    – It shows, that regional variation is huge, compared with negligible total variation…
    – Zones are rectangles on map approximately over continents or ocean parts…

  26. tom0mason says:

    Slightly off topic and just a idea —
    Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) will be helping to cool the stratosphere and that will eventually lead to effects on the jet stream and so to weather effects at the surface.
    We occasionally get Sudden Stratospheric Warm (SSW) in winter that perturbs the weather, maybe now we will be seeing its counter Slow Stratospheric Cooling (SSC) in summer.

  27. oldmanK says:

    Quote from PASemi “– Unsure, if temperature rise preceeds cloud cover rise or vice-versa…?”

    Condensation of water vapour releases the latent heat of vaporisation. See cognog2 above.

    An unexplained -and avoided- issue is that we are in the ‘Warming’ phase of the Eddy cycle. Why that is so has not been explained. There is an explanation for the period between 8k2 and 4k2 BP, but not for later, yet the cycle is evident all along.

  28. oldbrew says:

    Hudson Bay sea ice cover at early summer 2020 is similar to the 1980s
    Posted on July 6, 2020

    Don’t expect to hear this news from polar bear activists busy promoting the supposed threat to polar bears from declining Arctic sea ice but ice cover over Hudson Bay so far this summer has been very similar to what it was in the 1980s – often promoted as ‘the good old days’ for Western Hudson Bay polar bears. As of the end of June 2020, very concentrated ice (9/10-10/10) more than 1 metre thick still covered most of the bay and there was still no open water near Churchill along the west coast down into James Bay.

    https://polarbearscience.com/2020/07/06/hudson-bay-sea-ice-cover-at-early-summer-2020-is-similar-to-the-1980s/
    – – –
    Pole of Cold district that recently recorded desert-like heat of +38C now sees snow
    By The Siberian Times reporter 07 July 2020

    Topsy-turvy summer swings from Saudi-heat to freezer in Arctic north of Russia’s largest region of Yakutia.

    https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/pole-of-cold-district-that-recently-recorded-desert-like-heat-of-38c-now-sees-snow/

  29. tallbloke says:

    Oldman K, The mainstream climatologits discuss evident cycles as little as possible.

  30. Paul Vaughan says:

    Reviewing another Bill Illis classic:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-16/#comment-112857

    Hopefully someone compiles all of his comments from the last 4 years and runs a talkshop story on them.

    If it wasn’t posted at the talkshop it didn’t happen — it never happened.

  31. P.A.Semi says:

    Re: Paul Vaughan – I’m technically able to compile all comments, but it requires downloading all their pages and I’m not going to do it personally… Contact me at (semi at pialpha cz) and I can send you my tools and scripts to do it… (Occasionally I do harvest a whole forum to compile comments or perform statistics, not on Word Press but it could be adjusted also… It may take hours of downloading… I’m not personally interested at harvesting wuwt…)

  32. P.A.Semi says:

    I’ll add another group of charts from NOAA/NCEP re-analysis…

    – It’s organized same as “Regional monthly Total Cloud Cover Anomaly …” above…
    – The regions are simple rectangles on rectangular projection map approximately over continent or ocean parts (in case of interest I may supply the rectangles and/or other data on request…)
    – The “Total” sum amplifies polar regions because there are much more square degrees per same area…
    – Beside monthly serie, there are marked series for February (blue triangles), May, August (red triangles) and November…
    – three horizontal lines mark 0, +1 and -1 °C – difference of that month average from monthly average of whole dataset

    – It can be seen, that most warming occurs at polar winters. No one really knows, what temperature was there sixty years ago, and few can verify, what temperatures are there today… So they were free to adjust the past to make present to seem warming…

    For example Antarctic July average is some -48°C, raised from -52°C at 1948 to -44°C at 2019 – who can verify that and who really cares ?! For example north polar February average -26°C , raised from -29°C in 1948 to -20°C in 2018… Who cares ?!

    Elsewhere, the raise is rather modest…

    In Europe, the temperature raises by some 1°C and I strive to explain that by heating from Sahara via pressure lows in Spain or in Atlantic west from Spain… (I have partially convincing charts for that but need to elaborate on it more…)
    Sahara summer also warmed by little more than 1°C…

    In USA the average temperature is much more volatile and I came to a conclusion about geo-engineering (c*-traiyls), that they may be just trying to improve their dry weather without any malevolent intent…? (not sure, just pondering)

    Conclusion – if their Idol is the “global temperature”, they are including and manipulating polar region winters to raise the global average…

    But no one cares having Antarctic winters -45°C or -52°C or Arctic winters -30°C or -20°C and it’s far safe from any melting…

  33. P.A.Semi says:

    Another chart to explain European continental warming, again from NOAA/NCEP re-analysis:


    – Latitudinal component of wind at North coast of Africa and southern Mediterranean, positive is northward wind

    – During summer, wind almost always blows southward into Africa, but occasionally there is a blow northward from Sahara to Europe, causing European heat-waves at summer, because African air warms more, even if it cools over night, because there are sand aerosols…

    – Chart marks northern-wind events from Africa between May and September, and their yearly sum is shown as green line

    – It shows, that beside some experiments or exception at start of 1970’s, since 1987 there is systematically more of these summer warming events from Africa into Europe, and it coincides with start of systemic raise in European temperature…

    – It is usually triggered by a pressure low west of Spain or over Spain, which are rather rare during summer…

    – It seems probable, that this raise could have been achieved by some simple geo-engineering, for example as some nato airforce exercises at Atlantic west of Spain…?? Not sure…

    – That systemic raise in African northern winds occured precisely when IPCC started their Climate Bussiness hoax…

  34. Paul Vaughan says:

    AI Generation Pierced Rock for 16 Figures

    Bought all toke ream ember hash tag cold call in no cents …or shy Pear us?

    No.11ink king there weather min or mock SIM mum — buy caught only deep pens — bad reins bean fall UN — D-own buy the bay — bar ring brr reigns:

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/06/27/motions-in-the-sun-reveal-inner-workings-of-sunspot-cycle/#comment-159148

    Sillicon Volley

    IT’s acute tact key p[y]ong verge UN free of D-evil skew-D C[ENSO]R shh ops UN luck D-own.
    Scrape ping pan 4 wit ever BillIllis aid, expunge UN D-serve-D “climate” host pi22a ‘s’11ice.

    Try UN gall of sun thought tech in to wish UN: e/11 on red spill (“the less UNeed tune O” – TH see 96 reverse sing generation).

  35. P.A.Semi says:

    I apologize for placing too many large chart images in one comment section. I thought the WordPress is making small copies for the page display and it does not matter, how large the originals are… My Firefox crashed from “Out of memory error…”
    I apologize, if I caused similar problem to someone else…

    —–
    Re Paul Vaughan – is it even English?
    (Some of the words I seem to know, their meaning escapes me… “Twas brillig and the slithy toves, did gyre and gimble in the wabes…” Lewis Carroll…)

  36. P.A.Semi says:

    I apologize for placing too many large chart images in one comment section. I thought W0rd press is making small copies for the page display and it does not matter, how large the originals are… My Firefox crashed from “Out of memory error…”
    I apologize, if I caused similar problem to someone else…

    —–
    Re Paul Vaughan – is it even English?
    (Some of the words I seem to know, their meaning escapes me… “Twas brillig and the slithy toves, did gyre and gimble in the wabes…” Lewis Carroll…)

  37. P.A.Semi says:

    I’ve read the paper about your Solar model…

    Click to access prp-1-117-2013.pdf

    It looks interesting and great..

    But if it claims tidal influence, why it excludes Mercury in the equations…?

    Varying the phase shift of the frequencies seems to be a deception? It would mean, that same configuration produces different effects? Because the planet configurations in VEJ cycle do not have varying phase shifts…

  38. Ulric Lyons says:

    P.A.Semi, that doesn’t make sense, warmer sea surface temperatures reduce low cloud cover in most regions. That’s why UK annual sunshine hours have increased around 8% with the warm AMO phase.

  39. tallbloke says:

    Ulric: warmer sea surface temperatures reduce low cloud cover

    Reduced low cloud cover warms sea surface temperatures.

  40. tallbloke says:

    Semi: Longer term modulations involve the slower moving outer planets. We still don’t know for sure the relative strengths of tidal effects and angular momentum effects. The model specification doesn’t claim to solve all these puzzles about mechanism.

    It does reproduce Steinhilber long term solar proxy and the sunspot numbers since 1749 much better than any other model.

  41. tallbloke says:

    Semi: too many large chart images in one comment section

    One way to avoid this is to use ‘href’ html code to link to your superb images.

  42. Stephen Richards says:

    As long as the CCP has the army on it’s side it cannot fail. Tiananmen Square ! We still do not know how many students were murdered by this regime and yet we buy their products in ever greater numbers.

  43. Ulric Lyons says:

    tallbloke, that works both ways, reduced low cloud cover would also allow greater radiative cooling. Also the cloud cover changes are seasonal, there has been no increase in UK summer sunshine hours. But it does stand that generally higher SST’s leads to less low cloud cover, apart from in the central tropics and the Arctic.

  44. Ulric Lyons says:

    tallbloke and Semi, solar cycle lengths from maximum to maximum are ordered by the quadrupole alignments of VEJ-U, and VEJ-N during each centennial minimum. There are no beat periods or periodic modulations involved.
    Study what the gas giants do at the seasonal to inter-annual scales which drive the largest temperature extremes in our weather. It has nothing to do with solar tidal effects or angular momentum effects, but rather with connections to the solar equatorial quadrupole magnetic moment.

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/major-heat-cold-waves-driven-key-heliocentric-alignments-ulric-lyons/

  45. oldbrew says:

    July 2020 ENSO update: La Niña Watch!
    July 9, 2020

    ENSO is still in neutral, and likely to continue so through the summer. However, the 50-55% chance of La Niña developing in the fall and lasting through winter means NOAA has hoisted a La Niña Watch.
    . . .
    Why a Watch?
    The current forecast, a 50-55% chance of La Niña, is not a very strong probability. There is still about a 40-45% chance that neutral conditions will remain through the fall and winter, and a smaller but non-zero chance of El Niño—around 5-10%.
    . . .
    One of the factors restraining the probability of La Niña in the current forecast is the lack of a substantial source of cooler-than-average water under the surface of the tropical Pacific.

    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2020-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-watch

  46. P.A.Semi says:

    Re Ulric Lyons:

    About Sunspot Cycle – I’ve explained it solely by VEJ cycle… Will not copy my chart here, it’s there already:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/06/27/motions-in-the-sun-reveal-inner-workings-of-sunspot-cycle/#comment-158980
    (I’ll look at Uranus and Neptune later, thank you for a hint…)
    If it was Tidal, then it cannot exclude Mercury, because it is tidally as important as Earth, since it is more near to Sun…

    —–
    About SST and Clouds – I think, that the higher water temperature means more evaporation…? The charts seem to support that…

    —–
    About heat waves caused by planets – where ?
    Because “heat wave somewhere” almost never means “heat wave everywhere”…

    Continental Europe heat waves are almost always caused by air from Sahara pouring into Europe, which is caused by pressure low in Spain or Mediterranean…
    Warm winters in Europe are usually linked to stable pressure low over Greenland, pumping warm Atlantic air into Europe… Which winter pressure lows over Greenland somehow seem linked to Moon Perigees being rather north or south, but I’m not sure yet, better analysis is pending…

    Similarly, America would be probably more influenced by El Nino and La Nina in Pacific…

    It’s a pitty Linkedin does not show me contact details… Can you write me at (semi at pialpha cz) ?

  47. Ulric Lyons says:

    Semi. the VEJ cycle cannot account for variability of cycle length, or centennial minima.

    Higher SST’s does mean more water vapour, especially as surface wind speeds over the oceans have also increased since 1995, but more water vapour means a warmer lower troposphere, which reduces low cloud cover.

    “About heat waves caused by planets – where ?”

    Many land regions in the mid latitudes with strongly positive NAO/AO conditions. Saharan plumes may be intense but they are very brief, locally limited, and depend on negative NAO/AO conditions and a blocked meridional jet stream, which is actually more common during low solar periods.

    “Warm winters in Europe are usually linked to stable pressure low over Greenland, pumping warm Atlantic air into Europe… Which winter pressure lows over Greenland somehow seem linked to Moon Perigees being rather north or south, but I’m not sure yet, better analysis is pending…”

    Warm winters in Europe will be due to discrete solar forcing of positive NAO/AO conditions week by week, or a warm northeast pacific blocking pattern as in winters 2013-2014 and 2019-2020, where the UK sees increased mild wet and stormy Atlantic fed weather when the solar signal drops and the AO goes negative, but the NAO cannot go negative because of the block. Meanwhile the Northeast US sees the cold because of the negative AO. I’ve looked at hundreds of winters of daily temperature anomalies and never found any consistent or significant lunar signal.

  48. Paul Vaughan says:

    High SSTs in winter means WAY MORE cloud cover.
    The sign of the relation reverses even IN JUST ONE location …never mind everywhere.

    Cold in winter means clear. Clear in winter means WAY colder. (It’s not linear.)
    Again: depends on WHERE you are.

    TB wrote: “The model specification doesn’t claim to solve all these puzzles about mechanism.”

    Wisdom prevails.

    Pick a given type of physical driving system.
    CHANGE THE GEOMETRIC BOUNDARY CONDITIONS.
    RESULT: DIFFERENT spatiotemporal pattern.

    I have prototyped a generalized exploratory tool that subsumes all conventional methods, but I’ll never have the time and resources to formalize it. I’d need an advanced team of programmers and no bad politics — probably an impossible combination given the polarization of to daze world.

    Those who continue criticizing China on human rights:

    Cynics laugh at — AND CONDEMN — this savage hypocrisy since lockdown.

    Western governments turned on the people suddenly. That was incomprehensibly savage human rights violation designed to double as extreme financial terrorism. If you don’t see it that way I assume you’re rich and the impacts didn’t even touch you. If you try to silence people who WERE brutalized, that is very telling indeed. We’re here to observe nature, including UN human nature.

    If the west wanted to criticize China on human rights, the west blew it catastrophically. Financial terrorism is incomprehensibly ill-advised and lockdown is savage hammer pumped up and swinging on steroids at innocents.

    We can’t back Trump because of Boris (whose backstab reduced Trump’s influence by several orders of magnitude). We can’t back Biden because he plans to violate human rights (threatening more savage lockdowns and extreme financial terrorism …killing MORE THAN 2 birds with 1 stone …and worse: THINKING IT’s noble).

    The West is UN door siege by the mess age, 4 sure.

  49. Paul Vaughan says:

    UL wrote: “There are no beat periods or periodic modulations involved.”

    That may be what you think, but all the events can be translated. Everything you say can be quantified precisely without words …and in a single sitting.

    We each have a different role to play.
    I explore aggregation criteria.

    I can show a client exactly what you are saying (equation &/or graph with no need for words) every time.

    Conventional blind-streamers use conventional software. I can advise a client about how events you describe will appear in resultant statistics.

    The conversation belongs on a higher level.

    boycott AB use by mono pole lie

    I want to see Meng Wanzhou released and Huawei (and other Chinese IT) allowed to provide stiff competition to western IT monopolies, which are undermining not only western freedom but global security and stability.

  50. P.A.Semi says:

    Re: Paul Vaughan:

    I AM “advanced team of programmers”… And occasionally I lack an advanced mathematician for a consultation… (And about politics we may agree as I see…)

    Contact me… (And if you use gmail, check spam folder for reply, because they censor me automatically…)

  51. Ulric Lyons says:

    Paul,
    The UK has had increased sunshine hours in the winter with the warm AMO phase since 1995, and generally warmer winters too.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

  52. Ulric Lyons says:

    Paul wrote:

    “That may be what you think, but all the events can be translated. Everything you say can be quantified precisely without words …and in a single sitting.
    We each have a different role to play.
    I explore aggregation criteria.
    I can show a client exactly what you are saying (equation &/or graph with no need for words) every time.
    Conventional blind-streamers use conventional software. I can advise a client about how events you describe will appear in resultant statistics.
    The conversation belongs on a higher level.”

    What a heap of conceited and insulting drivel, especially implying commercial gains from my work by claiming you can present it better. You haven’t a clue how to apply my unique findings, you are not welcome to the conversation.

    [mod] we’ll call that a right of reply but we can’t carry on in the same vein

  53. Ulric Lyons says:

    tb, I thank you for the right of reply. With such toxic company present I will wisely avoid sharing my work here.

  54. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’m just going to ignore that and restate what I presently view as countless orders of magnitude more important than anything we’ve ever discussed “on-topic”:

    boycott AB use by mono pole lie

    I want to see Meng Wanzhou released and Huawei (and other Chinese IT) allowed to provide stiff competition to western IT monopolies, which are undermining not only western freedom but global security and stability.

    Yes I’m distracted. We live in distracting times. It’s not business-as-usual.

  55. oldbrew says:

    JULY 14, 2020
    China rushes to contain floods after record rainfall

    The downpours have intensified since last week, causing dozens of Yangtze-basin waterways to post record-high water levels, while more than 400 had exceeded warning levels, Vice Minister of Emergency Management Zheng Guoguang said on Monday.
    . . .
    Summer rains and seasonal glacial melt in the river’s Tibetan plateau headwaters cause routine annual flooding.

    But environmentalists say the threat has worsened over the decades due in part to rampant construction of dams and levees that have cut connections between the river and adjacent lakes and floodplains that for centuries had helped absorb the summer surge.

    https://phys.org/news/2020-07-china-rainfall.html
    – – –
    More rain + less run-off = trouble

  56. tallbloke says:

    Paul: If the west wanted to criticize China on human rights, the west blew it catastrophically.

    The west isn’t keeping 2 million members of an ethnic sub-population in internment camps and selling their hair and body organs on international markets.

    The Chinese Communist party runs a country of over a billion people as a one party totalitarian regime. Their bloody repression of democracy movements and ethnic minorities has gone on for decades, not a few months of poorly judged pandemic policy. Their ‘elections’ are a bad joke in poor taste.

    They signed an international agreement to allow Hong Kong relative autonomy until the late 2040s and are reneging on it.

    I back my government’s decision to kick the Totalitarian Chinese Communist Party out of our comms networks. I also back the US decision to withdraw from the Chinese Communist dominated WHO.

  57. tallbloke says:

    To everyone. Keep copies of political comments, because from now on, unless they are posted on political threads, they are likely to be deleted without notice. This is primarily a science blog, and I don’t want political statements turning off readers who are primarily interested in reading civilly discussed science here as a welcome relief from the wall to wall politics elsewhere.

    Thank you for your understanding.

  58. P.A.Semi says:

    Just for completeness to my “African Wind” chart above…

    This one is more specific, it’s “West African” only, from Morrocco to Lybia:

    and it’s related to some, not all, European heat waves, here showing comparision of those African Winds to Continental Europe (roughly from France to Poland) daily temperature anomalies:

    Almost every summer blow from Sahara starts some positive temperature anomaly in Europe…
    And it’s visible, that there was a significant systemic increase in those African Northern Winds since cca 1992, since Al Gore’s alarmism started…

    So that is the European part of “Global Warming” scam…

    The other part is mostly just the polar winters, where they probably decreased past polar temperatures to make it appear as a “catastrophic” warming of some 10°C per half century… But who cares, if Antarctic winter is not -52°C on average but “only” -42°C ?

    —-
    To Ulric Lyons – higher SST means more Evaporation, that is basic physics… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evaporation

    But higher air temperature means the water is more likely to stay aloft… But it must eventually fall down, but my conjecture is, that if it is warmer and if the air was clean, the water (clouds) can reach more deep into continents??
    But if there is soot or sand aerosol in air, the water rains down sooner and there is inland drought, as was in recent years, due to California fires and due to more often wind blows of sandy air from Sahara…

    Maybe the more warm air meaning more water aloft then means more severe floods, when it finally falls down?
    This year without aviation, the summer temperature dropped to a reasonable normal, and there is more water and floods in China’s inland…
    It would be best visible after the aviation resumes, what all dipped in climate charts and then restored, i.e. what all is caused by aviation foremost…

  59. P.A.Semi says:

    I’ve tried to use “a href” and inside it small image url, but there is a href to that small image instead, which is sub-optimal…

    Full resolution of those charts:
    West Africa north wind chart
    Compared to European Air temperature anomaly

  60. P.A.Semi says:

    Re Tallbloke’s “The west isn’t …” — It is… You know too little… And US “Democracy” is a bad joke too, with an Uniparty of two Colors but almost same Lords who cannot be named openly, that is the difference – since in China you know, who rules, while in West you don’t… WHO is dominated by Bill Gates and Fauci, that is why they cry wolf at “China”…
    Ok, not a politics blog, but it’s rather a short reply… (You can cut this out if you don’t like it here…)

  61. tom0mason says:

    Even Nature (the website) is on the solar variation affecting rainfall and dispersal https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45809

    Titled ‘Tropical rainfall over the last two millennia: evidence for a low-latitude hydrologic seesaw’ where they say —

    Changes in solar activity are another proposed cause for the widespread NH cooling during the LIA44,45,46,47. A cluster of four significant “grand solar minima” occurred within the LIA, whereas solar activity during previous centuries was higher. It is possible that the combination of low solar activity and NH volcanic eruptions with associated feedbacks (such as from increased sea ice and more frequent atmospheric blocking events over the North Atlantic)31,47 between 1250–1800 C.E31,47, led to the LIA cooling and southward ITCZ displacement. The importance of insolation changes is however much smaller than that of volcanic eruptions in terms of radiative forcing. It is therefore likely that the volcanic forcing dominated, while changes in solar activity enhanced these trends.

  62. tom0mason says:

    And indirectly maybe this shines a little light on why such things happen —
    INVESTIGATION ON THE SOLAR CYCLE SIGNATURE ON THE HADLEY CIRCULATION
    BASED ON THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF THE SOLAR CYCLE
    C. Vedavathi1, M. Venkat Ratnam2, V.V.M. Jagannadha Rao3, N. Venkwateswara Rao2, and S. VijayaBhaskara Rao1

    The pdf file is freely available at https://www.ijcrr.com/uploads/175_pdf.pdf

    ABSTRACT
    It is well known that there are profound effects of solar cycle (SC) on the tropical deep convection and hence the atmospheric circulations. However, it is unknown how the intensity and duration of SC is going to affect the circulation patterns. In the present study, the effect of SC on the Hadley circulation (HC) is investigated based on intensity and duration of the SC using ERA-Interim dataset obtained during 1979-2012. Maximum and minimum SC is differentiated based on sunspot number (SSN) with cut-off at >=100 and <=20 for solar maximum and minimum, respectively. The duration of solar maximum (minimum) and its peak intensity are found decreasing (increasing) from SC 21 to SC 23. During solar maximum, convection shifts southward over South American and African (10oS) sectors and no convection over Indian and adjoining sectors. This feature, however, varies from cycle to cycle. It is found that SC with larger intensity causes the convection centres to shift to Pacific i.e. zonally (EW) and longer duration in SC causes the convective centres to shift to southward i.e. meridionally (NS).
    Mass stream function analysis reveals that the HC decreased in SC 22 compared to SC 21 and SC 23 against increase or no change in the pacific region. This is attributed to the persistence of high sunspot activity for a larger period. HC is relatively strong in SC 21 suggesting the influence of solar activity is relatively more in SC 21 compared to SC 23. Even though the duration of SC 23 is more (12.6 years), the SSN is less (120.8) compared to the SC 21 (10.9 years with peak SSN 164). This strong and less period of solar activity might be the reason for relatively strong influence of solar activity on SC 21 compared to SC 23.
    In addition, the spotless days are very less during SC 21 (273 days) compared to SC 23 (821 days). Thus, it is observed that Southern Hemisphere HC is strongly influenced (reduced) during solar maximum which depends further on the duration and intensity. Less duration causes more influence on HC.

  63. Ulric Lyons says:

    tom0mason says:
    July 16, 2020 at 3:34 pm

    Arctic sea ice is reduced during each centennial solar minimum because a warm North Atlantic (AMO) phase.
    Large tropical volcanic eruptions have a slight warming effect on winters in the mid to high latitudes due to a positive influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation, so they cannot be responsible for any European cold winters during the LIA. Moreover the large eruptions typically follow within months of extreme cold N Hem winter periods. The cold winter episodes are each discretely solar driven.

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