New model of predicted polar bear extinction is not scientifically plausible

Posted: July 21, 2020 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Critique

Headline chasing climate alarmists can’t let go of their polar bear scares.


Apparently, a prediction that polar bears could be nearly extinct by 2100 (which was first suggested back in 2007) is news today because there is a new model. As for all previous models, this prediction of future polar bear devastation depends on using the so-called ‘business as usual’ RCP8.5 climate scenario, which has been roundly criticized in recent years as totally implausible, which even the BBC has mentioned. This new model, published today as a pay-walled paper in Nature Climate Change, also did something I warned against in my last post: it uses polar bear data collected up to 2009 only from Western Hudson Bay – which is an outlier in many respects – to predict the response of bears worldwide. The lead author, Peter Molnar, is a former student of vocal polar bear catastrophist Andrew Derocher – who himself learned his trade from the king…

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  1. oldbrew says:

    Pielke Jr.: The Misuse of RCP8.5 Often Involves a Sales Pitch

    As we see here with the latest polar bear nonsense.

  2. dennisambler says:

    All these models are dependent on CO2 actually doing what is claimed for it.

  3. arfurbryant says:

    dennisambler is right.

    It doesn’t matter how many PhDs they have, or much climate scientists want to believe it (and advocate it), there is no physical mechanism whereby the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere can lead to any significant rise in ‘global temperature’. Everything else in the debate depends on this false assumption.

  4. DB says:

    Polar bears have been around long enough to have survived previous warm periods such as the Holocene Thermal Optimum and the Eemian.
    Sandra Talbot of the USGS Alaska Science Center in Anchorage was one of 14 scientists who teamed to write a paper based on a polar bear jawbone found amid rocks on a frigid island of the Svalbard Archipelago. The scientists determined the bear was an adult male that lived and died somewhere between 130,000 to 110,000 years ago….During the Eemian, about 125,000 years ago, the planet was warm enough that hippos lived where London is now.

  5. oldbrew says:

    New model of predicted polar bear extinction is not scientifically plausible

    But that means nothing to most of the alarm-loving media.

  6. We have got to save the polar bears. They kill and eat baby seals. Without the polar bears, we’d, most likely, have to hire a bunch of norwegians to go up there and club the baby seals to death.

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