Past evidence supports complete loss of Arctic sea ice by 2035, say researchers

Posted: August 11, 2020 by oldbrew in modelling, predictions, research, sea ice
Tags: ,

Still waiting

Climate modellers have a fairly dismal record in trying to predict sea ice patterns in the Arctic, always erring on the side of too much warming. Will this research do anything to improve matters? They seem to be using Earth’s past climate as a guide, while asserting that human-caused carbon dioxide is the main problem today.
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A new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, supports predictions that the Arctic could be free of sea ice by 2035, reports

High temperatures in the Arctic during the last interglacial—the warm period around 127,000 years ago—have puzzled scientists for decades.

Now the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate model has enabled an international team of researchers to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial with present day.

Their findings are important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.

During spring and early summer, shallow pools of water form on the surface of Arctic sea-ice. These ‘melt ponds’ are important for how much sunlight is absorbed by the ice and how much is reflected back into space. The new Hadley Centre model is the UK’s most advanced physical representation of the Earth’s climate and a critical tool for climate research and incorporates sea-ice and melt ponds.

Using the model to look at Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial, the team concludes that the impact of intense springtime sunshine created many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea-ice melt. A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become sea ice-free by 2035.

Joint lead author Dr. Maria Vittoria Guarino, Earth System Modeller at British Antarctic Survey (BAS), says, “High temperatures in the Arctic have puzzled scientists for decades. Unraveling this mystery was technically and scientifically challenging. For the first time, we can begin to see how the Arctic became sea ice-free during the last interglacial. The advances made in climate modeling means that we can create a more accurate simulation of the Earth’s past climate, which, in turn gives us greater confidence in model predictions for the future.”

Full report here.

  1. oldbrew says:

    Right on cue…

    Greenland’s Summer Melt Season Set To Be Shortest For Years
    AUGUST 11, 2020
    By Paul Homewood

    After one of the latest starts to the summer melt in Greenland, it appears that the melt has pretty much finished a couple of weeks early as well.

    In all likelihood, it will end up being the shortest melt on record, not that this will be reported.

  2. Hifast says:

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections and commented:
    Latest model tweak: “Let’s see if we can get this guess to stick.”

  3. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    As the oceans turn there phases expect a change in the behaviour of the Arctic ice.

  4. cognog2 says:

    This report suffers from groupthink which attempts to explain everything by means of radiation. (Probably because they have all these lovely new toys to play with). The logic here seems to be based on the fact that melt ponds have a lower Albedo than ice – therefore more energy is absorbed- therefore more melting and more rise in temperature. What they forget, however is that melt pools indulge in evaporation so any absorbed energy gets converted to Latent Heat AT CONSTANT TEMPERATURE. The Latent Heat then gets pumped up into the atmosphere and beyond to space.

    Perhaps these scientists should suck the ends of their pencils and start thinking, rather than peering at computers to provide answers.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Growth Of Antarctic Sea Ice Due To Fewer Clouds, Chinese Scientists Find
    Date: 11/08/20 Xinhua News Agency

    Researchers have discovered that lower cloud coverage in the Antarctic can promote sea ice growth.
    . . .
    “Clouds are like a down jacket for the Antarctic to preserve heat during winter,” said Bi Haibo, a researcher from the institute. “Fewer clouds mean more heat is lost from the ocean.”

  6. Coeur de Lion says:

    I shall be dead by 2035 but no one is taking my annual £100 bet that Arctic ice will bottom out at more than 4 million square kilometres next month as for the last 13 years save 2012. Less I pay you. Besides the AMO we have an upcoming La Niña, solar cycles 24 and 25 and plenty of decennial cooling observations around the globe. Enjoy.

  7. ivan says:

    IF, and it is a big if, their models are so good maybe they will give us the projection for next year and the year after.

    Obviously they can’t since they have to give a year far enough ahead so that everyone will forget about it by the time the predicted year comes round.

    So much for ‘climate modelling science’ – it isn’t worth the paper it is printed on.

  8. JB says:

    “The advances made in climate modeling…”

    If they’re still puzzled, then what can be said about their modeling “advances?”

    “A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become sea ice-free by 2035.”

    A projection which is useless, because it relies on a uniformitarian (steady state) view: “what has been will always be.” Never mind that the galaxy is growing, and with every rotational cycle circumstances change just a bit more. Galactic arms are getting longer, solar systems are expanding. The original energy invested in the galaxy at birth is slowly converting to matter and cooling down in quantized steps.We just “happen” to be in a very long quantized period where changes are imperceptibly small, seemingly steady state without close scrutiny.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Tony Heller looks at the latest Arctic sea-ice situation, and recent trends, here (starting at 3mins. 40secs.)…

  10. Curious George says:

    Golden rule of engineering:
    Interpolate at will. Extrapolate at your own peril.

  11. tom0mason says:

    More modeled nonsense. Maybe someone should get hold of Dr. Maria Vittoria Guarino et al. and wager the team a significant amount of money that the prediction will not come about in 2035, that it is baloney.
    These dunces do not understand that outputs from their (failed) climate models are not evidence.

    Meanwhile Greenland according to DMI record books also reveal that yesterday’s 4 Gt GAIN smashed the previous mid-Aug record by over 2 full Gigatons.

  12. oldbrew says:

    The fact that ‘ice free by 2008/2013’ etc. has now become ‘could be by 2035’ tells us a lot about the very limited – if any – value of climate model crystal-ball gazing. Apart from a few brief headlines to gee up some warmists, it’s a nothingburger.

  13. Phoenix44 says:

    So there were high temperatures before that led to the loss of Arctic sea-ice but there’sno way the current loss of Arctic sea-ice and high temperatures can be natural?

    Am I missing something here?

  14. oldbrew says:

    What’s missing is recognition of the realities of historical* climate change, pretending that it no longer matters.

    *regular minima and maxima of the last few millennia, for example

  15. hunterson7 says:

    So they reset the Doom, and use the skeptic’s historic evidence to hide their failure.
    We are in a dark age.
    Climate consensus is merely a facet of the superstitious dark age we are falling into.

  16. Chaswarnertoo says:

    So what civilisation caused the last Arctic ice melt? 😇

  17. Gamecock says:

    Nature Climate Change has no soul. A generation of such ridiculous predictions doesn’t stop them from posting more.

  18. stpaulchuck says:

    “while asserting that human-caused carbon dioxide is the main problem today.”
    right there you know what comes after is all BS. The warmists remind me of the infamous Russian Five-Year Plan(s) that got revised EVERY year.

    Of course they’ve got this New, Improved, Completely Accurate computer model. [*shakes head*]
    —– [one of my favorite quotes] ———
    “Computer models are no different from fashion models. They’re seductive, unreliable, easily corrupted, and they lead sensible people to make fools of themselves” John in OK

    If someone ever figures out a way to forecast chaotic, stochastic data/events, they’ll own the world in short order.

  19. Gamecock says:

    “So what civilisation caused the last Arctic ice melt?”

    More importantly, what civilization would be affected by an Arctic ice melt in 2035?

    The fact is, an Arctic ice melt would be beneficial. It’s desirable.

    ‘Their findings are important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.’

    Invalidating all previous predictions.

    We tell them their models are junk.

    They make ‘improvements,’ as if their models are then no longer junk. Any report of improvement is a confession of previous worthlessness.

  20. oldbrew says:

    Trying to shoehorn their CO2-phobic theory into climate models is never going to work, but they can’t and won’t accept that so are doomed to endless errors in results.

  21. oldbrew says:

  22. dennisambler says:

    The movable feast moves on once more, always just out of reach.

    But the ice wasn’t there a few million years ago:

    Scientists in 1897:

    “All the evidence seems to point to the conclusion that climates all over the world in that ancient epoch were pretty much the same. The same plants grew contemporaneously in Greenland and in California, in Spitzbergen and in Virginia. There was a uniformity of vegetation in all parts of the earth. Nobody can say just why this was, although several theories have been advanced to account for it. One theory is that the atmosphere in those days was heavily charged with watery vapor, so that warmth was readily distributed through it, and the sun’s rays did no have a chance to strike the earth uninterrupted, making differences in climate by the degree of their slant. In the course of time the atmosphere thinned gradually, and then there came to be climatic variations marking a series of zones around the globe.”

    There was a lot less ice than now, a thousand years or more ago,

    “On the coast of Greenland are found the long-abandoned ruins of many buildings erected by the ancient Norsemen, of rock, and very substantial. According to tradition, a Norse navigator named Gunnibiorn landed in the country in the year 872 A. D.

    The Norsemen certainly went as far as 75 degrees north latitude, which cannot be reached by the stoutest modern ship without serious risk. These voyages were accomplished, too, in half-decked, open boats.

    A stone found near Upernavik, in latitude 72 degrees and 30 minutes, bears an inscription in Runic dated 1135. In the old sagas and chronicles there is little mention of ice as an obstruction to navigation, and it is evident that the climate in those days was much warmer than it is now. Since then the glaciers have filled the fiords and have made the country uninhabitable, save in a few spots along the coast.”

    I wonder where they got all the CO2 they needed to keep things warm and ice free, in 1135?

  23. oldbrew says:

    dennisambler says: ‘I wonder where they got all the CO2 they needed to keep things warm and ice free, in 1135?’

    From the article: ‘One theory is that the atmosphere in those days was heavily charged with watery vapor’.

    It’s still true today that most radiative ‘gas’ in the atmosphere is water vapour, but not ‘heavily charged’ of course.

    Interesting article – quote:
    ‘In the old sagas and chronicles there is little mention of ice as an obstruction to navigation, and it is evident that the climate in those days was much warmer than it is now.’

  24. Gamecock says:

    Why would we be for an obstruction to navigation?

    Arctic ice bad. Not good.

  25. Another certain prat-fall, in a mere 16 years time. One to enjoy when I retire.

  26. CraigM 350
    April 2020 ARGO data shows that whole 40N… 62N of North Atlantic ocean has cooled down.

    Also data to 31.12.2020 showed that cold has reached NE Atlantic even to 70N.

    it’s just a matter of time (years)when 40N –> 90N have more significant cooling.

    This together with the slowdown in the Florida current (start of the Gulf Stream) confirms that the AMO downswing is gathering pace.

  27. oldbrew says:

    Will Arctic Sea Ice Rebound As Atlantic Ocean Cools?
    Date: 11/04/18 Paul Dorian, Vencore, Inc.

    Arctic sea ice extent has generally been below-normal since the middle 1990’s at which time the northern Atlantic Ocean switched sea surface temperature phases from cold-to-warm. It is likely to return to pre-mid 1990’s levels when the oceanic cycle flips back to a cold phase in coming years.

    – – –
    Published: 11 September 2017
    Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics

    Sea surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic have shown a marked decrease over the past several years. The sea surface in the subpolar gyre is now as cold as it was during the last cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in the 1990s.
    . . .
    Here we show that the recent Atlantic cooling is likely to persist, as predicted by a statistical forecast of subsurface ocean temperatures and consistent with the irreversible nature of watermass changes involved in the recent cooling of the subpolar gyre.
    – – –
    The Atlantic is entering a cool phase that will change the world’s weather
    May 29, 2015
    – – –
    Some waffling excuses for lack of ocean heat rise…

    Missing heat
    Scientists search the deep oceans to balance Earth’s energy budget.

    by Laura Naranjo
    October 13, 2015

    But after rapid warming in the 1980s and 1990s, the rate seemed to slow. Continued high continental temperatures were offset by curiously cool ocean surfaces. Yet most scientific evidence, and the inexorable increases in heat trapping greenhouse gases, indicated global temperatures should be climbing at a greater rate. This missing heat had to go somewhere—if not in the surface layers, where?