Greenland Ice Varies, Don’t Panic

Posted: August 22, 2020 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Natural Variation, propaganda
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‘Once again, history is a better guide than hysteria.’ — Indeed, but hysteria makes bigger headlines, which are the aim of the climate alarm game. But in the end, we will all be the losers if we fall for it.

Science Matters

The scare du jour is about Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and how it will melt out and flood us all.  It’s declared that GIS has passed its tipping point, and we are doomed.  Typical is the Phys.org hysteria: Sea level rise quickens as Greenland ice sheet sheds record amount:  “Greenland’s massive ice sheet saw a record net loss of 532 billion tonnes last year, raising red flags about accelerating sea level rise, according to new findings.”

Panic is warranted only if you treat this as proof of an alarmist narrative and ignore the facts and context in which natural variation occurs. For starters, consider the last four years of GIS fluctuations reported by DMI and summarized in the eight graphs above.  Note the noisy blue lines showing how the surface mass balance (SMB) changes its daily weight by 8 or 10 gigatonnes (Gt) around the baseline mean from 1981…

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Comments
  1. Graeme No.3 says:
    August 23, 2020 at 9:07 am

    532 ± 8,000 or maybe 532 ± 10,000. Seems unusually accurate for AGW scare headlines.

  2. oldbrew says:
    August 23, 2020 at 9:44 am

    Meanwhile Antarctica gains ice mass.

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

  3. tom0mason says:
    August 23, 2020 at 10:33 am

    But, but … the oh so sciency Guardian told me 10 years ago that this year would be the ‘tipping point’ for ice on Greenland.
    From https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/aug/10/greenland-ice-sheet-tipping-point

    Greenland ice sheet faces ‘tipping point in 10 years’

    Scientists warn that temperature rise of between 2C and 7C would cause ice to melt, resulting in 23ft rise in sea level
    …
    Greenland shed its largest chunk of ice in nearly half a century last week, and faces an even grimmer future, according to Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University
    “Sometime in the next decade we may pass that tipping point which would put us warmer than temperatures that Greenland can survive,” Alley told a briefing in Congress, adding that a rise in the range of 2C to 7C would mean the obliteration of Greenland’s ice sheet.

    And in 2019 the Washington Post and many others reported on the MASSIVE and ALARMING melting complete with a faķe photo from years before. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/climate/greenland-ice-sheet-melting.html

    So much BS, so little science!

  4. Coeur de Lion says:
    August 23, 2020 at 10:42 am

    Alley comes from Penn State Uni? Umm, who else does? All of a feather.

  5. oldbrew says:
    August 23, 2020 at 10:44 am

    Vikings grew barley in Greenland

    A sensational find at the bottom of an ancient rubbish heap in Greenland suggests that Vikings grew barley on the island 1,000 years ago.
    . . .
    The Greenland climate was a bit warmer than it is today, and the southernmost tip of the great island was luscious and green and no doubt tempted Eric the Red and his followers.     [bold added]

    PUBLISHED Friday 03. february 2012

    https://sciencenordic.com/agriculture-archaeology-denmark/vikings-grew-barley-in-greenland/1447746
    – – –
    Anyone tried that recently?

  6. oldbrew says:
    August 23, 2020 at 12:42 pm

    Mars icecap also varies…

    “Note how the southern polar ice cap has contracted and broken–a result of it being late springtime on that side of Mars.”

    Approaching Mars


    – – –
    BOM: ‘The ENSO Outlook has moved to La Niña ALERT from La Niña WATCH. This means that although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, the chance of La Niña forming in the coming months has increased to around 70%—roughly three times the normal likelihood.’
    (18/8/20 – updated every 2 weeks)
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/