La Niña underway in the tropical Pacific, says Australia’s BoM

Posted: September 29, 2020 by oldbrew in ENSO, predictions, weather

Source: Bureau of Meteorology — ENSO Outlook [updated every 2 weeks]
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La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. – Wikipedia

Comments
  1. ivan says:

    I would question anything said by the Australian BoM considering their ‘adjusting’ of temperatures to fit a preconceived agenda.

    See http://joannenova.com.au/2020/09/bureau-of-met-reads-tea-leaves-and-finds-warming-that-no-thermometer-can-see/ for the latest effort.

  2. Graeme No.3 says:

    ivan:
    Fully agree but over the past month their local temperature forecasts for the next day have been so widely different as would make one wonder if they can read a thermometer. e.g. last night was predicted to drop to 9℃ and went below 5℃. To avoid too many noticing discrepancies the TV broadcast the evening before gives their guess, but the next day they report the temperature range for somewhere about 18 km away.
    Mind you the local (automatic) weather station has been mentioned rather scathingly in the survey by Ken’s Kingdom as one of nearly 50% of sites NOT meeting their own requirements. See the archives at https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com

  3. oldbrew says:

    NOAA say similar but the October update is awaited.

    10 September 2020
    ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

    Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance).

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

  4. Lorne Newell says:

    JoNova. You stole my thunder.

  5. oldbrew says:

  6. I agree with Ivan. BOM are useless. I monitor SOI on the Qld Longpaddock site. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ It has a good record also of rainfall charts and cyclone tracks going back to 1910 and also the IOP (Indian Ocean Dipole) which affects Australia weather cycles. The SOI started to turn at the end of July and is now in the zone of 10+ positive which indicates higher rainfall. It has the appearance of conditions 10 years ago when the SOI turned in August (2010), December 2010 had an all time (since 1893) record rainfall of 660+mm (at my place). Then in January 2011 more rain overflowed the main dam near Brisbane and for safety water had to be released. The flooding caused deaths in Toowoomba, Lockyer valley and Brisbane. In the last few years there has been a drought that was only broken this year. Previously there was a drought 2004-2009 which broke in 2010. 10-11 years is the regular cycle period and this coincides to an extent with the orbit period of Jupiter. I have been predicting a wet summer (Jan, Feb & Mar) since July. In Qld. el Nino is associated with hot and dry conditions while la Nina is associated with more rain (lower temps. due to clouds) and floods and also it appears with more cyclones.

  7. oldbrew says:

    La Niña Is Here: What Will It Do To Global Temperatures?
    Date: 01/10/20 GWPF & NOAA

    ‘La Niña intensifies the contrast between the warm far western Pacific and much cooler eastern Pacific, and so La Niña’s atmospheric response is a strengthening of the Walker circulation.’

    https://www.thegwpf.com/la-nina-is-here-what-will-it-do-to-global-temperatures/

  8. oldbrew says:

    A miracle? CO2 at record highs but Australia’s risk of Megafire Summer reduced

    Global carbon dioxide levels hit record highs in 2020. But through incredible luck, or perhaps a Pacific La Niña event, Australia is now less likely to get massive bushfires this summer.

    Looks like carbon dioxide will now cause more floods and cyclones, not fires and droughts.

    It’s just physics, you know.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/10/a-miracle-co2-at-record-highs-but-australias-risk-of-megafire-summer-reduced/

  9. oldbrew says:

    With La Nina in the Pacific now officially started, it will take several months for that surface cooling to be fully realized in the tropospheric temperatures. Typically, La Nina minimum temperatures (and El Nino maximum temperatures) show up around February, March, or April.

    https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2020-0-57-deg-c/

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